bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for January 13th and Review of January 12th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly!
Let’s get started with the Review!
***Album I Am Listening to While I Write This***:
No Ceilings by Lil Wayne (I am probably going to just listen to “watch my shoes” like 100 times)
***Yesterday In Review:***
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
Teague | 6600 | 17.75 | 2.7x | 7.6%| 16.6%| 9
Donovan | 8500 | 55.5 | 6.5x | 32.3%| 22.3%| 10
Ingles | 6000 | 26 | 4.3x | 33.4%| 20%| 13.4
Holmes | 3800 | 24.25 | 6.4x | 4.4%| 17.8%| 13.4
Brow | 11700 | 53.5 | 4.6x | 24.3%| 32.3%| 8
Grayson Allen | 3000 | 10.25 | 3.4x | 0%| 0.8%| .8
Royce O’Neale | 3900 | 34.75 | 8.9x | 45.8%| 42%| 3.8
LaVine | 6100 | 34.75 | 5.7x | 6.2%| 12.9%| 6.7
**Total**| 49600 | 256.75 | 5.176x| | |
Well, I’ll start by saying that when Rose was ruled out, I wanted to get Teague in there since he’s had great run without Rose, taking a ton of shots, and getting a slew of dimes to KAT and Co. So, of course, as has been my luck a lot the last couple weeks, Teague wound up getting injured at the end of the first half. He tried to come back in the 2nd but couldn’t get past it, and wound up only getting 21 minutes and shooting the ball 5 times. I also wanted to run back my heavy Utah presence with LaVine, who should be seeing a lot of 2nd string defense but would still shoot the ball 30 times. He wound up getting 2 fouls within the first 3:30 minutes of the first quarter. I’m sure there will be people all over this article tomorrow saying this proves I’m terrible at analysis, somehow. “Look at this bathrobe guy, he thinks he’s so smart but he can’t accurately predict injuries and fouls and blowouts everyday, so all of the statistical work he does obviously means nothing! He obviously thinks he’s so smart and takes himself so seriously, because he chose to name himself after the bathrobe, the hallmark of over-serious jerks!” I obviously joke (kind of). I have a lot of faith in the intelligence of the DFS community. Anyone who takes the time to read this everyday knows that I constantly advise them to take all the things they learn from all their sources and combine it all together and then trust what your gut tells you. If you do the right prep, and know what the most important statistics are every day, you should be able to do whatever you need to do to win. I would advise against one thing though- it’s easy for people, especially in the modern internet age, to just look for the analysis that agrees with them. You will never be able to paint a full picture or have a successful long-term strategy if you seek out only the information that you already agree with. Sometimes the best bits you can learn are from people you may normally disagree with (when it comes to DFS philosophy or approach). Don’t be afraid to take some time to think about *why* someone thinks someone you like is bad today, or, conversely, why someone you hate may be good. You may come out disagreeing, but it can never, ever hurt to check and double check the reason behind a decision. No one is perfect, and we all get hung up on some things sometimes! Just remember one last thing: the trolls never come in and provide helpful corrections, or try to show why analysis is wrong- they are people who try to look smarter than other people by playing the hindsight game. No one has ever come in to dispute the math/statistics I am presenting every day (or the logical conclusions that follow therein). No one says “This team is actually 28th in pace not 2nd! This whole thing is wrong” or “He doesn’t have the usage you say! That is wrong!”. They say “How could you play this person yesterday when he was chalk?” When these same people had the person in 50% of their lineups. Or “How could you not play him even though he was chalk, everyone knew he would go off!” They are not trying to help anyone or anything except their egos and it is very sad. I will continue on because I have wasted too much time with negative people here. After seeing the 8 man rotation two days ago, I wanted to get 3 or 4 players on the Jazz. Donovan and Ingles were locks. When Grayson Allen was announced as playing today, it let me lock him in as the 3rd and move up to Brow, who I loved going against the not-so-great D of KAT. I was risking him getting the usage in a too-many-cooks situation, but it is Brow and I was happy betting on the floor and raw points in this instance. I knew I wanted to get Holmes, because he has just been giving an incredible amount of run every game and has been producing well beyond expectations. He is getting more and more popular, though, as we can see from tonight. The last spot I had was 4300 at the F position. I knew Royce was going to be the most popular chalk play on the day, but everyone else presented significantly more risk and had what i considered to be lower floors and ceilings than Royce getting 35+ minutes, even at low PPM production. The first quarter in Utah is 2 minutes away. I’m excited to see how this game shakes out (though Teague has almost certainly already cost me tonight, again.)
***The Early Slate: Some Notes***
Since, instead of running a 3 game slate and a 4 game slate, DK decided to run a 2 game, a showdown, and a main 4 game, I’m not going to break a 2 game slate down the normal way, so here are some notes for the games I had put together anyway:
*Philly 7th in pace, Knicks 13th, TOR 17th, Wizards 9th
*For Philly, Embiid and Butler are Questionable. For NY, Frank N is Questionable, Hardaway and Dotson are Probable, Kanter is Doubtful, and Robinson is still Out. For TOR, FVV is Questionable and Miles is Doubtful. There is no new Injury News for Washington (Wall, Morris, Howard Out)
*In terms of DVP: Philly is weakest against PG and PF (Mudiay and Vonleh). NYK is league worst against SG and SF (Redick and Butler/Korkmaz), and below average against C and PF (Embiid/Muscala and Chandler/Muscala). Toronto is weakest against small forward (though only slightly worse than league average)- so Ariza. Wizards are weakest against PG and C (so Lowry and Ibaka).
*In terms of top 50 usage players: Embiid is 6, Kawhi is 22, Beal is 31, Trey Burke is 37 and Hardaway is 43rd.
*The following players are top 10 among starters at their positions in DRPM (Name (Rank-Position)): Simmons (2-PG), Butler (5-SG), Vonleh (6-PF) Lowry (4-PG), Green (1-SG) Satoransky (9-SG)
*Sixers/Knicks has no O/U or spread as they await the injury news
*Raptors/Wizards has an O/U of 227 and a spread of TOR -6.5
***The Main Slate:***
***Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day***
Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. [**If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here**](https://www.reddit.com/r/dfsports/comments/a9ckrh/bathrobedfs_good_chalkbad_chalk_and/)
The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
***Luka Doncic*** - In case you missed it, during their last game JJ Barea tore his achilles and he will be out for a considerable amount of time. On top of that DSJ is still hobbled with a back injury and, if there’s anything I can talk to you about out of personal experience, it is that back injuries suck and can last forever. If DSJ is out, Doncic will be the overwhelming selection for MSC pick today. Even if DSJ plays, I can’t imagine he will be at full strength and, given the way Luka has put this team on his back, it may not matter. One of the first things we need to know is that, for basically the entirety of this season, JJ Barea has led the Mavs in usage rate. Even though Doncic has been climbing recently, he is still only 28th while Barea sits at 19th. This means that, not only is Doncic now the only Mav in the top 50, it means we know there is a lot of usage that will be free to go around. We also know that, if Doncic is on the court, he will eat most of that usage up. With Barea AND DSJ’s ballhandling up for grabs, while people like Harris and Brunson will get some extra DKP, it just cements Doncic’s threat to get double digit assists. He also constantly finishes with 8 or 9 rebounds, showing just how close he is to triple-double upside every single time he takes the court. This ignores the fact that he has no problem shooting the ball 25 times a game, and will have to shoot more now that Barea is out. All this depends on matchup, though, since the Mavs are playing the Warriors. Luckily, the Mavs are at home which, according to Vegas, gives them more of a chance to keep the game close since this game only has a spread of GS -6. What’s more, the O/U in this game is 228 which is 10 points higher than the next closest game. With the Warriors playing at the 10th fastest, and Mavs playing at the 11th fastest pace, this game should also be the quickest one on the slate which maximizes possessions and, therefore, potential points. On a slate where a 12700 priced Harden will, rightfully, draw a ton of interest, Luka will go underowned simply because he has to. One of the smartest ways you may able to differentiate yourself is to play a balanced lineup while everyone tries to force in Harden and some subpar punts (barring some crazy good stuff emerging before lock)
**Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):**
****James Harden*** - 57 DK points. 57. Fucking. DK Points. If this slate ends tonight, and anyone besides **Harden (12700)** finishes at 57 points, they have had a really, really good day (especially anyone priced under Durant at 9600). I can’t imagine a single one of you would be really angry at that. 57 is a fuckload of DK points to have. So, in case you weren’t paying attention, the reason I bring up 57 is **that is how many DKP James Harden had in the first half last game**. When we talk about this idea of “what is someone’s ceiling?” It’s more than double that. The reason I say “more than” is because he was a couple assists and rebounds away from a triple-double bonus. At halftime. Meaning even if we double it, we have to add on extra points for the bonuses. So, again, the absolute ceiling we can expect from Harden has increased into the 110s. That is simply stunning (like Threeve, a combination of three and five). If you can play him, play him. I know I love Doncic tonight, in terms of his % chance for hitting his ceiling, but Harden’s floor may eclipse the ceiling of most other plays on this slate. I mean, you are spending more than 25% of your entire salary pool on only 12.5% of your needed personnel. And 40%+ of lineups are doing that, every time. And he’s still not priced high enough. I hope you enjoy basketball, because it is just a pleasure to watch day in and day out. The other thing that bears noting: this game has the lowest O/U at 213.5 and features the 3rd and 5th slowest teams in the NBA. Not that this is going to stop Harden, but, as we all know, less points and slower pace decreases average production for every player in a game, due to the finite number of possessions every game has.
****Aaron Gordon***- **Gordon (6500)** is one of the streakiest players I know. When he starts going off, you ride him until he settles back down. Well, the Magic had an upset win yesterday against the Celtics on the back of Gordon, who put up 28 points, 12 assists, 2 assists and a block (with 6 TOs). Today he will be going against the Rockets in what is supposed to be a close game, playing PF which is the position against which the Rockets are weakest. It is the only position the Rockets aren’t above league average against (although some of that has to do with CP3). While **Vuc (8700)** is also in a great spot against the individual D of Capela, I expect him to be significantly more popular and I want to get Gordon while he’s playing hot, at a discount in both salary and ownership.
****Klay*** - We all know, at this point, how I feel about the GoldenState TooManyCooks. They have too many awesome players splitting too much production to make any of them worth it for DFS purposes. This is a situation that will soon get MUCH worse, as Cousins is supposed to come back this week and immediately enter the starting lineup. We don’t have to go up to the highest priced guys, though, to find the person in the best spot today. We can look no further than **Klay (7200)** who, like Gordon above, is one of those streaky players that you want to get on while they are on a run. He happens to be doing that right now, putting up 41.25 DKP in 25 minutes last game, 56.5 DKP the game before. Dallas is also weakest against defending perimeter shooters, meaning Klay is also in a great position in terms of game environment. While I rarely play Warriors in larger slates, I love the spot for Klay and will try to run Doncic back with Klay tonight.
****Nurkic*** - On Xmas Day, he was 6100. Today **Nurkic (8300)** is still seeing his price go up every game and it hasn’t finished adjusting yet. Nurkic, on the other hand, *has* adjusted beautifully to his new increased responsibility (thank you, don’t try that at home). He is providing fantastic defense, giving you a nice floor for rebounds, steals, and blocks. He has been shooting enough (when needed) to score you more than enough DKP to make value. And he has been stepping up against the tougher opponents (of which no one can deny, Jokic is one). With Denver playing bigger, as well, Nurkic will be needed for his maximum allotment of minutes, nudging up his potential production. The only Blazer who won’t be seeing a great defender is **Dame (8600)** who is close enough in price to Nurkic that I would certainly be fine pivoting from one to the other depending on ownership projections (which, on sundays are.. meh… anyway). Last note here: Harkless will be out, giving **Evan Turner (4100)** elite punt status for tonight.
****Jamal Murray*** - If there’s one thing you should know about Jokic it’s that people thought he was bad for stretches because he understands there are times when he should just step back and let other people do the work. I remember, at the beginning of this season, Millsap coming out and saying that Jokic was completely healthy, he just wasn’t shooting at all because he didn’t have to. While there is really no one that can handle **Jokic (10200)**, Nurkic plays solid enough D that, if Denver is smart, they will plan on attacking the Blazers where they are weakest which, as of now, is at PG. This is where **Murray (7100)** will be racking up the DKP tonight. Nokic is a smart player who will already know this and, with Harris still projected to be out and Barton likely out or severely limited, Murray should be locked into minutes, floor, and a hell of a nice ceiling. The Nuggets are in a pace up spot in a game with the closest spread on the slate (DEN -4). A lot of people are going to be on Jokic today. In GPPs, I say attack the same way Denver should today, with Murray.
****Tristan Thompson*** - I will start by saying that this game should probably blow out. I mean, it’s a small slate so I won’t play that way, but even without Lebron, the Cavs have no business making this close. With Lebron, it would have been a national slaughter. Right now, Vegas has the spread at LAL -9.5 so they think it won’t be that close either. However, again, it’s a 4 game slate and anything can happen, so let’s look at the game itself. The one person who stands out for myriad reasons is **Tristan (6100)**. Nance is out (and will be for awhile) and Tristan will get all the run he needs to handle (if the game stays close, he has been back long enough he should see minutes in the mid-to-high 30s). The Lakers are not just bad, they are NBA Worst over the last month in DvP and DKPPG against the Center position. McGee is awful at Defense. The Lakers are 3rd overall in pace in the NBA (though they have been playing fastest without Lebron) where the Cavs are 29th, which is about as much of a pace up spot as is humanly possible. Tristan has shown 60-70 DKP upside this year and he has a hell of a good shot of getting there in this matchup. If he is popular, he is enough risk you can punt off it, but he was one of my top choices for MSC today, so I will have a hard time not rolling with him today no matter what. I will also add here that **Clarkson (5700)** will face really good defenders when he is playing late in the game, but he will be getting plenty of run against the Lakers bench and he can absolutely destroy them.
****Lakers*** - The most expensive player in this game is **Kuzma (6900)** who will be going against the Cavs weakest position and could sleepwalk to 5x in this spot just in raw points alone. **Lonzo (6400)** is an awesome GPP play since his production is variable enough that people are scared off him due to the duds. He is, however, going against the 2nd worst defender in the NBA, Collin Sexton. Seriously. He’s 2nd worst not just among PGs. Among every single player. The other players on the Lakers come with considerable more risk and are in worse spots, but against this Cavs team no one is really out of consideration, **Ingram (6300)** and **Hart (5500)** especially.
**Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):**
****Capela (7800)*** - **Capela (7800)** has been playing really well since CP3 and Gordon have gone out, ascending to Harden’s 2nd option (behind Harden, himself) when available. However, he is at the price now where I look at him more for cash players. Great floor, safe production, but he needs an above-average PPM and above-average minutes against the 4th best DRPM Center in the NBA, Vucevic, in order to reach the ceiling we would need to take down a tournament. Someone who will also drag Capela around the court (something Capela is not as good at doing). This will decrease rebound upside as well.
**Situations to monitor:**
****Brandon Knight*** - Brandon Knight isn’t someone we ever consider in DFS because we are not dumb people randomly throwing money out. However, he is Questionable tomorrow and, just cause we don’t play him, doesn’t mean his absence wouldn’t matter. He is someone who gets between 6-18 (generally 12 or so) minutes a game. That is 6-18 minutes that will be going back to **Austin Rivers (4900)** (who needs every bit of help he can get at that price point) and **Gerald Green (4000)**. Both players would be going against Fournier, the weak link this year in Orlando’s defense, and playing the perimeter, another of their weaknesses. This is the first game to go off, so we should know early whether or not Knight is playing. If he isn’t, get ready to pounce of the extra value we get from everyone else. Remember: minutes equals points. Even 5 more minutes can swing a whole slate.
****Lalalalala Mo Bamba*** - Bamba missed yesterday’s game, opening the door for **Khem Birch (3000)** to get 100% of Vuc’s backup minutes. This turned out to be 17.5 minutes, where he put up 4 points, as well as 10 rebounds, 1 assist and 4 blocks. If Bamba misses again, Birch will once again be an incredible value on tonight’s slate and strongly suggest you look at him first (I can’t imagine most people will be there).
****DSJ*** - Not only would DSJ’s absence be a huge boost to Doncic, he would also provide a huge boost to **Brunson (3800)** and **Kleber (4000)** who’s been starting for DSJ (while Doncic slides over to the point). It would also provide a boost to **Harris (3100)** who is less of a sure thing.
****Harris/Barton*** - If Harris and Barton are both out (since Barton was already limited and it’s a back-to-back), **Beasley (4400)** and **Monte Morris (4200)** are both in, again, excellent positions today. My choice would be Beasley since he is most likely to start and get the 30+ minutes that could help break the slate open.
Alright everyone! Remember, especially if you only play the biggest GPPs and one lineup, there’s a lot of variance. And a lot of ways to fall out of cashing. As long as you keep making your choices for the right reasons, the luck will even out and start falling your way. And there’s never too many opinions to consider when it comes to analysis. Now I hope your NFL picks hit today and we win this pretty awesome Sunday main NBA slate!