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bathrobeDFS Breakdown for April 14th.



Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings.

Main Slate

Weather Games

Angels vs Cubs - This game won’t play. I can’t imagine it does. If it does, stack the Cubs. But that’s it.


Pitchers

Great Pitchers

Masahiro Tanaka (RHP, NYY) - 1-0, 18.1 IP, 1.47 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2 BB, 15 K - Tanaka is a fantastic pitcher that can take on any lineup in the game. This is a poor White Sox offense and, while anything can happen, Tanaka is clearly one of the best options, especially for that price. He will get enough Ks, and keep enough people on base, you have to consider him as a pivot on more popular options.


David Price (LHP, BOS) - 0-1, 12.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3 BB, 13 K - Price has had a better start to the year than these numbers indicate. He has been pitching really well if you’ve been watching. And now he gets an Orioles team he should be able to make quick work of. I will note, as I have been, the O’s are a tougher team than most realize. This isn’t a slam dunk for Price and there are pitchers I like better. I wouldn’t go here making one lineup, but I would go here in MME.


Charlie Morton (RHP, TB) - 2-0, 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1,06 WHIP, 7 BB, 21 K - Morton is a great pitcher who flies under the radar. But, for the most part, he pitches like an ace. The fact he has 7 BB in 16 innings means he is not allowing runners on base unless they walk. And, when he walks someone, he has no problem getting Ks or getting out of the inning. Against a poor Blue Jays O that still hasn’t looked right yet (apart from a couple good games), I will take Morton as one of the best options on this short slate replete with great options.


Marcus Stroman (RHP, TOR) - 0-2, 18.2 IP, 2.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6 BB, 18 K - I love the Rays offense. They are really underrated. But Stroman looks healthy and like the ace we have hoped he would be for years. He has a problem with walks but, much like Morton, the high # of walks is offset by his decent number of Ks and his ground ball stuff. If he is on, people are going to avoid him with how hot the Rays have been playing. But he has just as much upside as anyone, at significantly less cost.


Max Scherzer (RHP, WAS) - 1-2, 19.0 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 4 BB, 28 K - Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in the game, and the best pitcher on the slate. If you can afford him, and you find a cheap stack you like, you have to fit him in. He has a ceiling that few can match, even in a day full of aces.


Jose Berrios (10100, MIN) vs DET - Well, let’s try this again after they gave Pineda the start yesterday - Berrios is a Cy Young caliber pitcher with a world of talent and incredible stuff. He hasn’t had the greatest start to the year, but this is a get right spot against a poor Tigers team that may be without Castellanos. I don’t expect him to be exceedingly popular on a small slate, either, given the plethora of other options, but I think it’ll be worth it to pivot if you want. You can’t ignore the talent of the upside. Well you can, but it could wind up costing you a bunch of money.


Corey Kluber (RHP, CLE) - 1-2, 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 5 BB, 17 K - Kluber is a Cy Young pitcher that has started out the year pretty poorly (by his standards). Because of this his price has come down and very few people will be on him. I suggest strongly you don’t make that mistake against an overrated Royals O. Sure Whit and Mondesi are awesome. But you think he won’t be able to have his way with Maldonado and Dozier and Duda and O’Hearn?? He’s one of the few people that can rival Scherzer’s point total today, and he is so, so much cheaper.


Great Pitchers, Bad Spots

Jameson Taillon (RHP, PIT) - 0-2, 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 4 BB, 13 K - I love Taillon. I have told you multiple times about he will be a future Cy Young winner. Or he has the talent to be. It’s going to be a tough league to get there .But he has all the talent in the world. The only problem here is the matchup against the Nats. With so many other awesome pitchers in some awesome spots, I would only take Taillon as an MME play in GPPs.


Great Spots

Vince Velasquez (RHP, PHI) - 0-0, 6.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 4 K - Velasquez isn’t the best pitcher in the world. I mean, he is the Phillies 5th starter and he’s only making his 2nd start of the season. But his first start was decent. He got through 5 innings and, while he only struck out 2 people, that was against a much tougher Nats team. Now he gets the free pass against the worst offense in the game, the Marlins. You can play anyone any time they pitch against him. Even though he is WAY, WAY too expensive.


GPP Plays

Carlos Rodon (LHP, CHW) - 1-2, 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7 BB, 24 K - People are scared off of the Yankees. I mean, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gregorius, Tulowitzki, Andujar. Oh wait. That’s all the Yankees on the IL right now. Leaving them a lot thinner than people think. They can be attacked, and I will do so. Especially at low ownership. He has huge K upside and this is a poor Yankees offense missing a lot of pieces that will K a whole lot.


Batters

Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)

Red Sox vs Orioles Bullpen Game - Most people stay away from bullpen games, and for good reason. They are bad for offenses when pitchers just come in and out based on matchup. But that’s ignoring that the bullpen in this game belongs to the Orioles. Last time they did this they gave up 13 runs to the A’s. This is a better Sox squad.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Everyone from the top of the order, down


Phillies vs Jose Urena (RHP, @MIA) - 0-3, 13.2 IP, 9.22 ERA, 2.32 WHIP, 5 BB, 10 K - Urena is one of the worst pitchers in the game. Look at those stats. Those are absolutely terrible. And none of those are a surprise given his skillset. Now he gets an INCREDIBLY dangerous Phillies O. With the Sox, you aren’t going to find better stacks today.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Start with Bryce and Hoskins, the start at the top and work your way down


Twins vs Jordan Zimmermann (RHP, DET) - 0-1, 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA 0.78 WHIP, 3 BB, 14 K - Zimmermann has started out the year very well. But he is a bad pitcher. Especially when you look at all the options on this slate. With precious few stacking options, we can absolutely take a run on an underrated Twins Offense. Especially against RHP.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 8

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down


Indians vs Jake Junis (RHP, @KC) - 1-1, 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 1.60 WHIP - While the Indians are a poor offense, they are also going against a terrible pitcher that can’t stop giving up runs. And then they’d get a poor bullpen behind it. On a day we need money for salary, this is a great stack to take in order to give us the room we need to fit in a couple of aces.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 7

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: I don’t mind taking cheap people. And don’t ignore CarGo taking his first start, or so it is projected


One-Off Batters

Juan Soto (OF) - Soto is awesome. And Taillon is an extreme splits pitcher, meaning if anyone is going to be able to get to him, it’s a hot hitting power lefty who also shows extreme splits. Even with the other hitting options today, Soto is right up there.


HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Bryce Harper


Afternoon Slate

Weather Games

Pitchers

Great Pitchers


German Marquez (RHP, COL) - 1-1, 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6 BB, 16 K - Marquez is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. When he is out of Coors Field, you can almost lock him in. Granted, there are going to be some matchups that can scare us off, but the Giants in SF is sure as hell not one of them. This is only a 5 game slate and, while there is one better pitching option in terms of ceiling or raw points, that’s all.


Gerrit Cole (RHP, HOU) - 0-2, 19.0 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6 BB, 25 K - Gerrit Cole is going to win the Cy Young this year. And he is going to get 14 K today in 6 innings. Do not avoid him. He is expensive, but he should be much, much more expensive than he is. Seriously. Most people are going to play Cole/Holland today. And those people will probably win a lot of money.


Great Pitchers, Bad Spots

Great Spots

Derek Holland (LHP, SF) - 1-1, 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8 BB, 21 K - I hate Holland as a pitcher, but not as much as I hate the Rockies playing in SF. He has shown good K stuff this season and, against a Rockies team moving from the best hitters park to the worst, I will take a chance on him at this FAR too cheap salary. Just know, he will almost certainly be the highest owned pitcher on this small slate.


Great Spots??

GPP Plays

Ross Stripling (RHP, LAD) - 0-1, 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 5 BB, 15 K - Ross Stripling isn’t the best pitcher, but he’s good enough. And he gets enough strikeouts. Plus, and this is something people will ignore, Stripling is an extreme reverse splits pitcher going against a Brewers lineup that is going to be swimming in LH bats. A lot of people are going to think that means avoid Stripling or stack MIL, but they don’t realize that very few of them will have any sort of advantage.


Batters

Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)


Astros vs Marco Gonzales (LHP, SEA) - 4-0, 25.2 IP, 3.16 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5 BB, 16 K - Like I said the last time he pitched, there are going to be some 70 year old idiots that think Gonzales is the current front runner for the Cy Young, with his 4-0 record. But that ignores the fact he is awful. And it ignores the fact that I wouldn’t be surprising if he winds up at 4-10 from here. And it ignores the fact the Astros are one of the best Offenses against LHP in the game.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down, taking the RHB. Not Brantley.


LA Dodgers vs Jhoulys Chacin (RHP, MIL) - 2-1, 17.0, 4.24 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 8 BB, 14 K - Chacin is a decent pitcher if he’s going against a lineup of strikeout prone RHB. Not against this incredible, LH based LAD lineup. They are going to eat his milkshake. Not to mention the ball flies out of Dodger Stadium in the afternoon.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 9

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHP ONLY

Preferred Players: Start at the top and take only the LHB. Joc, Bellinger, Muncy, etc.


Dbacks vs Eric Lauer (LHP, SD) - 2-1, 17.0 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5 BB, 13 K - Lauer is a decent pitcher. We are going to use him a bunch this season. But not in Coors South. On a short slate like this, we have to take picks people are going to avoid. This is one that has a huge opportunity to payoff. Especially against a Dbacks team that has the bats to really hammer RHP.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7

Chalk Level (1-10): 6

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Jones, Flores, Walker, Escobar, Ahmed, Murphy, Peralta


Padres vs Zack Greinke (RHP, ARI) - 1-1, 16.1 IP, 7.16 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 3 BB, 22 K - Greinke is an ace who may be falling to the rigors of age. He has looked good, but not great, this season so far. But, even with his ability to get Ks, he’s not preventing baserunners, and he’s certainly not preventing runs for being scored. This is an underrated Padres Offense. Especially playing in Coors South. This is going to be unowned, as most people are going to want to take Greinke. But I think it’s far, far sharper (especially on this slate), to pivot against the grain with SD bats.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7

Chalk Level (1-10): 2

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Machado first, then Hosmer, then go back to the top and work your way down


Reds vs Miles Mikolas (RHP, STL) - 1-1, 16.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4 BB, 8 K - I have made it a mission to stack against Mikolas every time he pitches and have tried to get you to come along with me. He pitched way over his head, with way too much luck, and it’s all correcting itself now. I don’t care who he is pitching against. I will stack against him.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 4

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Winkler, then Votto, then Puig, then Schebler, then Dietrich, then go back and take whoever else you want.


Cardinals vs Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, @CIN) - 0-1, 9.1 IP, 6.75 IP, 1.50 WHIP, 4 BB, 13 K - DeSclafani was a good prospect who hasn’t gotten to live up to his talent. At this point, I don’t think he ever will. Odds are this is who he is, a decent, but not great, pitcher who is too good for AAA but not good enough for MLB. A AAAA pitcher, as they say. And when he’s going against a Cards lineup that starts with Carpenter and Golfy, I’ll be there to stack against him

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 9

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Start at the top and then work down


One-Off Batters - Covered in the article

HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Jesse Winkler

Ah, a fun Sunday of sports! I can’t wait. Enjoy everyone! And best of luck!!

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