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bathrobeDFS Breakdown for February 4th!


Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!


Yesterday In Review:

***My Lineup-*** -

Name | Price | DKP

DSJ | 5100 | 23.75

Wright | 3800 | 26.25

Bruno | 3600 | 5.5

PG13 | 10000 | 53.5

Jordan | 5400 | 35

Kyrie | 9200 | 53.5

Montrezl | 6900 | 25.25

Ibaka | 6000 | 32.5

**Total** | 50000 | 255.25


***Best Possible Lineup-*** - [Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher](https://www.fantasycruncher.com/lineup-rewind/draftkings/NBA/), I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.


Name | Price | DKP

Conley | 7700 | 54

Smart | 4800 | 39.5

Holiday | 4400 | 30.25

Horford | 6700 | 39

Gasol | 7800 | 44.75

Russ | 11000 | 68

CJ Miles | 3400 | 26.5

SGA | 4100 | 35.25

**Total** | 49900 | 337.25


Analysis-

Lowry being out wasn’t announced until 15 minutes after lock. It would have changed everything. I went with DSJ and Jordan, given they would start and were underpriced. I also punted with Bruno. Then everything changed with Lowry so I did my best. Montrezl was also declared the starter. So if I got Wright in there as FVV’s backup, I could get PG13, Kyrie and get both Montrezl and Ibaka in and hit exactly 50k. So I did. But I am still upset about them not just declaring Lowry out last night or, like, 12-fucking-45pm.


The Daily Slate:


Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day

Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here

The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.

In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.


Jrue - I had a really, really hard time picking this one today. There a ton of lower priced people I liked slightly more but don’t provide the same ceiling Jrue will and don’t have the same roster issues. There are a couple higher priced people I want to like more but I just don’t. So that leaves us with Jrue (8700) today. Let’s break it down. First, over the last couple of weeks, with the Pelicans roster playing bare bones, Jrue has had an 11 and 9 rebound game, as well as a 13 and an 8 assist game. This tells me that, while not likely, he provides definite triple-double upside here. When discussing ceiling, we also have to talk about the fact that AD, Julius, Mirotic, Moore, and Elfrid are all on the Shelfrid. This means that the Pels have 10 people available to play tonight. One of those is Wes Johnson who they keep around for emergencies only. So that makes it 9. Hill will also fight to get more than 10-15 minutes. So that makes it, essentially 8. And, most of the time, Ian Clark barely sees more than 10-15 minutes a game. So.. 7. That gives those 7 a much better chance at having a ceiling game, and forces production into the hands of only a few people (as well as guaranteeing heavy minutes for whoever is healthy). The main beneficiary of that is Jrue, whose price should be flirting with 10k not sitting 300 under 9k. I want to step back now and say that, since the Pacers are missing Oladipo, and since this game is in NO, the game has a decent O/U of 217.5 but a slate-best spread of IND -1. This means that, again, the people who need to get heavy minutes (like Jrue) will be forced to. He could push 40+ minutes tonight given the lack of depth and the need for him to be on the court in order to keep this game close. I tried checking pace here, but I am not 100% sure what to make of it right now. It is possible that, without the defense of Oladipo, the Pacers could try to pick the pace up. However, 3 of the 5 games they have played since he went down have been against 3 of the slowest teams in the NBA. Now, going against the Pelicans who are one of the fastest, I am curious to see if they have less reservations in matching the pace of NO without the stalwart Vic in their lineup anymore. I want to point out that, in terms of DRPM, Tyreke and Cory Joseph are fine defenders and Aaron Holiday is mediocre but not awful. I don’t think any of them are in the same ballpark as Vic, but they aren’t going to roll over and die like if Vic had been replaced by a LaVine or Rose. However, as we discussed earlier, Jrue is really not going to have much of a choice but to shoot a whole lot tonight. With the 7 people they will basically give minutes to, Okafor (7100) is 6’11”, then Diallo (3200) is 6’9” (that is the backup Center…), then Miller (4800) is 6’8”, Kenrich (4300) and Solomon Hill are 6’7”, then Jrue is 6’4”, Frank Jax (3700) and Ian Clark (3000) are 6’3”, and Frazier (3900) is 6’1”. Compare that to the Pacers- Turner and his backup Sabonis are 6’11”. They also have O’Quinn and TJ Leaf as backups at 6’10”. Thad Young and Bojan are both 6’8”. Sumner and Tyreke are 6’6”. Joseph is 6’3”, Holiday 6’1”, and Collison 6’0”. So let’s break down what all that means: The Pelicans are going to need as much height as possible. That means we can expect 35+ minutes from Okafor, Miller, Kenrich, and Jrue (not that that is much different than normal). If they let Diallo get many minutes, the Pacers have more than one person who has far too many inches over him and will make the Pels pay. So Okafor and Turner start opposite each other and that’s fair. Then Thad and Miller match up, and that’s fair. Next, Bojan and Hill/Kenrich match up and that’s close enough. Then, at SG, Jrue is supposed to match up with Cory Joseph. While Joseph has a good DRPM rating, most of his minutes come against backup point guards, not Jrue Holiday. Jrue has an inch and 15+ pounds on him, and Jrue is going to make it exceedingly difficult for Joseph to get comfortable. Collison and Frank will then matchup, and that is another slight advantage height wise for Jackson, but Collison is also one of the top DRPM rated PGs, so that evens itself out. The thing we need to really dig into, though, is the 2nd units. Indiana will have Sabonis (who will later play alongside Turner, giving IND 2 6’11” players on the court at once, a huge advantage for Sabonis, and a situation in which Okafor will need to see the court), TJ Leaf, Tyreke, Sumner, and Aaron Holiday. Go look at how fucking huge that lineup of backups is. Only one player is under six and a half foot. Considering the fact they have so few players, instead of having a “2nd unit” (which is literally impossible if you only try to play 7 players most of the game), there is more of a staggering of bringing people in and out. NO will play Hill 5 or 6 minutes at the beginning of each half and then play Williams for the rest (of the half, not quarter). Then, a couple minutes later, Frazier and Diallo will come in for Okafor and Jackson. This unit closes out the quarter. At the beginning of the 2Q, Jackson and Clark come in for Jrue and Miller for a few minutes and then the starters are staggered back in (except for Hill, who, like I said, gets 10 or so minutes a game). This means the 2nd unit players are going to be very, very tiny. Jackson, Clark, Frazier on the court together are 3 people 6’3 and under, when the Pacers will have 1 person under 6’6”. There’s just no way for the Pels to do that without conceding a deluge of points to the point this game could get out of hand. Meaning they are not going to be able to play the backups as much this game, which is why I expect Jrue, Miller, Williams, and Okafor to push 35-40 minutes. They will have to be more creative with the staggering, and, honestly, probably just leave those 4 out there most of the game if they want to have a shot tonight. And, again, Jrue will be a huge beneficiary of that, since he will also be matched up against backups and poorer defenders for a large chunk of his playing time. On top of this, Okafor will be guarded by Myles, who is one of the best defensive Cs and, as I said earlier, Collison is one of the best defensive PGs. I think this makes it more likely, again, they will have to rely on Jrue. While the other main producers (Jackson/Okafor) are having their production slightly limited by defense, Jrue will see less of that get in the way. I’m sorry this was so in depth. I just wanted to say, Jrue should be the player most likely to have a ceiling game today, and his 3 teammates, Miller, Williams, and Okafor, will have a great shot to do the same. Plus, it should give you a good window into just how far down the rabbit hole I go every day.


Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):


Blake and Drummond’s Pricing - I will start this section off by saying that, if you didn’t count them, there are 6 games on this slate tonight. FOUR of them have O/Us of 227 or higher. Of the other 2, one is 217.5, and the last one, DEN/DET, is at 209. That is a significant drop from all of the other games. And there are plenty of reasons why. Denver is 26th in pace and Detroit is dead last over their last 15 games. Denver has a good D. Millsap and Jokic are good defenders (as is Harris, but he is out). However, the spread is great, with Denver 4 point road favorites. And the difficult matchup doesn’t excuse the joke pricing for both Blake (8800) and Drummond (8200). Blake has been pushing 10k lately. While some of that was with Drummond out, most of it wasn’t. And he is still putting up about 50 DKP every game, taking 25 or so shots, and getting the double-double bonus. Similarly, Drummond was over 9k before his injury. He has had 3 games back- 8500 for 36 minutes and 49.75 DKP against MIL and the great D of BroLo, then his price fell to 8100 where he got 37 minutes and put up 53.5 DKP against the Dallas Cadavericks (that is professional writing, kids). Then, last game, against the woeful Clippers, people will see he only got 37.25 DKP, but that is because he fouled out after only 23 minutes. If he had gotten 36-37 minutes, he would have been damn near 60 DKP. The Nuggets are a big team, as well, so Detroit will have every reason to push both of these guys close to 40 minutes again tonight. There are a lot of better games out there, but these prices are absolutely inexcusable.


Jokic and Company - I was going to put this under “situations to monitor” since Murray has been upgraded to questionable, but I don’t think it matters, really. Six games ago, Jokic (10500) got 37 min against UTA and put up 69.75 DKP. Five games ago, 34 minutes against PHI and 76.5 DKP. Four games ago, 35 min against MEM and 41.25 DKP (understandable. Memphis is murder against Cs). Three games ago, 37 min against NO and 64.75 DKP. Two games ago, 31 min against HOU and 63.75 DKP. Last game, he only got 29 min and still managed 50 DKP. 6 games ago, Jokic was priced at 9800. The next game, he was up to 10700 and he hasn’t been priced as low as he is tonight since. I don’t expect Murray to play but, even if he does, him and Jokic work well with each other, and Jokic would still have the same 3x2 upside. And he gets to go against the mediocre/poor defense of Andre Drummond. Harris has already been declared out and Murray (6500), while originally out, has been upgraded to questionable. If he plays without limit, he will be matched up against R Jax, who couldn’t play defense to save the planet against whoever the villains were in Space Jam. If Murray is out, I would love to say I would be all over Monte Morris (6000) and Beasley (5500), but those dudes were under 4k a couple games ago. What you have to understand is that a LOT of people will see those prices and say the same thing. But Morris has 3 games in a row in the mid 40s in DKP and Beasley has been over 30DKP just the same. Both are priced a lot higher than people are comfortable with, but they are still undervalued. Don’t be scared off.


Sato and Co - Listen, I know Beal (9100) is the usage monster on this team. I know he likes to shoot. I know he does more than that this year. But I also know there are a lot of expensive people playing tonight that I like, and, in this matchup, I have no problem going with the person who will be matched up against the 2nd worst overall defender in the NBA, Trae Young, instead of Beal, who will be seeing the only half decent defender on the Hawks in Bazemore. This means, while I expect Beal to be largely popular, I will look to the other cast of characters. Primarily Sato (5600) who has the dream matchup of the slate, the person going against Trae Young. He has shown his 3x2 upside and, in a matchup against the fastest team in basketball (that also has one of the worst defenses), I find Sato to be far, far too cheap for that ceiling and those guaranteed minutes. I will also point out Otto (5900) is still getting minutes in the mid 30s, whether or not he is starting that particular game. He is also one of the primary options on this team and isn’t priced that way yet. He could and will be over 7k within a couple weeks. Get him now while the value is there in a matchup against the Hawks. While the Wizards like to play it small, Len is 7’1”, Dedmon is 7’0” and Collins is 6’10” meaning they are not going to be able to play a lot of Jeff Green (4900) at the 5 today which removes a lot of his value. It does mean we are more likely to see a good helping of Bryant (5000) and even Mahimni (3200) so if you want to get risky, both are great GPP plays (obvious Bryant is much, much better).


Collins and Trae - Trae (7600) has been on fire lately. I recommended strongly you play him with Booker last game, and, if you listened, he rewarded you with 47.75 DKP. His price only went up 100. He is in a better matchup today. Like I said last article- I don’t think this is a fluke. He looks like he may have found something and that showing against the Suns didn’t deter my thinking. While some folks, myself included, were skeptical of how symbiotic a relationship Trae could have with Collins (8100), he showed us last game by putting up 35p/16r/2a/1b on his way to 61.5 DKP. And, again, THIS IS A BETTER MATCHUP. This game has the highest O/U on an already awesome slate. I have a feeling, much like the Suns/Hawks game a couple days back, people are really, really going to be sleeping on this one tonight. I recommend, as strongly as I can, you load up here. Cause everyone here can perform tonight. And there’s no reason playing 4 people from this game in your lineup won’t pay massive dividends, especially if everyone else is trying to put bigger names in.


Giannis - The first person I considered for MSC play today, before the Jrue deluge happened. As much as I love Giannis (10900) today, and as strongly as I feel about him having a great game, there is enough to put me on other people more. Listen, I know he will probably be the highest owned player today, and I don’t blame you all. 227 total is great. MIL -7 spread is good enough. MIL is 6th in pace and BK is 3rd over their last 15 games. BK is weakest against PG and PF (Giannis plays PF). Giannis is 6th in the NBA in usage. There’s a lot to like. But there’s some stuff that worries me. Like his minutes. He just doesn’t get enough minutes. I picked an arbitrary starting point of Xmas to look back, but it goes on much longer than this. Since Xmas, the Bucks have played 18 games. Giannis has only reached 35 minutes in 6 of them. SIX. And the Xmas game he was only given the minutes because it was the opening game on the Xmas slate and the coach was being kind to the fans. He wouldn’t have gotten the run if it was a normal day. AND, he didn’t have a game where he got to 35 minutes before Xmas until you get back to 12/14. But, regardless, SIX. And of those six, three of them were 35 minutes exactly. I’m sorry but minutes are king. You can see by his production lately, which is great in terms of PPM, that he is having a lot of trouble pushing to 60 DKP. A lot of that is a function or living in the 30-34 minute range which should be enough for Giannis to get you 5x, but makes it a lot harder to imagine him reaching his ceiling. If you are looking for a safer play without as high a ceiling (that I alluded to earlier when I said BK was weakest against PG) Bledsoe (6900) should have no problem pushing 40 DKP tonight matched up against D’Angelo Russell. He was rested last game, but he is probable tonight and should be back to full strength. I don’t think he has the ceiling for GPPs, necessarily, but I think he won’t kill you if you need to go there.


D’Angelo and Napier - Dinwiddie will be out all season. LeVert is getting close but he’s still Out. The same goes for both Crabbe and Dudley. On top of that, Joe Harris was added to the injury report with the same hip problem that’s been bothering him. Worse yet, they are already calling him a GTD. What this means is that, first of all, Napier (5400) will continue to be a fantastic play. He is going to get the minutes. He is going to get the shots. He is going to get some other stats to help pad his value. I would say his floor is damn close to 5x here with a ceiling of 8x or so. Russell (7900) is like a fantasy basketball Major-General Stanley from Pirates of Penzance:


He is the very model of a modern, major GPPer.

He’ll shoot and miss, get hot and cold, show up, shut down, and disappear.

He can’t be trusted, lineups busted, risky at his core for you

But sometimes, if he gets the chance, he’ll hit his shot and score for you.

·

He’s very well acquainted, too, with getting past a solid D

50 FP on Derrick White and 55 on ole’ Kyrie

Of course next week he faced Kyrie again and just got 39

But even at this price, if he gets 40 you are doing fine.

But even at this price, if he gets 40 you are doing fine.

But even at this price, if he gets 40 you are doing fine.

But even at this price, if he gets 40 you are doing fine.

·

He’s very good at basketball and half the Nets sport injuries

With teammates on the sidelines that are nursing backs and necks and knees

In short, if you don’t mind the risk that Russell will just disappear

He is the very model of a modern, major GPPer.

In short, if you don’t mind the risk that Russell will just disappear

He is the very model of a modern, major GPPer.


Pacers - If you didn’t read the Jrue analysis above, I delve into this whole game. So I would make sure to read that and then come back here. Hello! Welcome back! What we know is the Pacers have a couple of advantages today. They have enough healthy bodies they can rotate people in and out as they need. They don’t have to worry about the only person on their roster over 6’9” getting into foul trouble. They can stay aggressive all game. And, significantly, they have a massive height advantage here. On top of that, IND is in the biggest pace up spot of any team on the slate. Because of all that, I will focus more on people like Sabonis (5500) who would create matchup disasters for the Pels. If Sabonis plays next to Turner, there is no one the Pels can put at PF that will be able to match up with him. Literally. They just don’t have the height. I also expect Bojan (5700) to take advantage of his minutes and the advantages he will have in this game. Also, while Thad Young (5800) is a little too expensive for me, I think he would be a fine cash type play. I also think they will need Collison (6200) to get more than average run if Frank Jackson is named the starter, so watch out for that news as the day progresses. All in all, I don’t know if there’s anyone I absolutely love here. But everyone here is too cheap and, in this matchup, given all the advantages they’ve been given, I can’t imagine some of these guys don’t go off and take full advantage of the Pels not having a functioning 2nd unit.


Booker and Ayton - I was initially worried that Booker (9000) would be covered by CP3, who is the only decent defender the Rockets have. Seriously. Harden is near the bottom, and Gordon and Rivers are at the bottom of DRPM. But Booker has 6 inches on CP3 and, as tough as CP3 is, Booker will have no problem doing the ole’ catch and shoot over him. He has been on fire lately. While I don’t think he’s in as good a spot as last time (and is certainly not a lock for me), this game is going to be high scoring and it’s going to be close enough. Booker should have a lot to do with that, and he should be able to do it against the shit defenders of the Rockets. Speaking of which, Deandre “Ayyyyy, Son” Ayton (6800) is coming off an injury, but still got 33 minutes and 35.25 DKP last game against ATL. And, while the Hawks aren’t great against Cs, the Faried-led Rockets make them look like the Grizzlies. Ayton is 7’1”. Ken Faried is 6’8”. Ayton will be able to do whatever he wants tonight. Him and Booker have some huge advantages and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they can take advantage here. On top of that, this should be a quick game, with the 2nd highest total on the slate (229.5). While the HOU -8 concerns me, like I have said in the past, I won’t even consider a blow out when it comes to my lineups unless the line is -10. While the Rockets have the skill to blow this out, the Suns have enough skilled players to counter the glaring weaknesses the Rockets have. So load up here.


Fox and WCS - Derrick White will be out today. That means the Spurs have two glaring holes the Kings are going to need to exploit if they want to keep this one as close as Vegas thinks it will be (227.5, SAS -2). The first is PG, where White, who is one of the top defenders in the NBA, will leave the spot to either Forbes or Mills, neither of who can handle Fox (7300)While I have often talked recently about how I find it hard to trust the Kings rotation/minutes allocation, Fox has been pretty consistent. And if he gets 35 minutes in this matchup, he could show that 50 DKP upside he was showing us a couple months ago. The second glaring weakness the Spurs have is the D of LMA. This means that, since he is home, we can lock in WCS (5800) as one of the most ridiculously underpriced people of the day. I mean, seriously. 227.5 total. LMA can not handle him. How the hell is he not going to drop, like, 40 DKP on the Spurs tonight?? I just don’t see it. WCS was the 3rd person I considered for MSC play of the day today. I really love him that much in this matchup.


Derrick White is OUT - If you don’t pay very close attention, you may have missed the fact that White has been crushing it lately. Taking a ton of shots. Putting up some serious production. Handling the ball. Playing solid D. And now, all of that will be redistributed to people whose prices have nudged down due to White’s recent play. This is the reverse of the CP3 situation I will talk about later on. Right now, with White’s production out of the lineup (on top of the 227.5 total, SAS -2 spread, and massive pace up spot), LMA (8000), DeRozan (7500), and Gay (5900) are ALL drastically underpriced. I don’t know if I would play more than 2 of these 3 people at once, but I don’t think it’s crazy to think that 2 of them go nuts here. I also love the extra minutes this opens up for Mills (4100) and Bertans (4100) who become two of my favorite punts tonight. The Kings are fast. They play no D. SA is going to score a lot of points and no one is priced high enough. Get on that tonight, folks.


Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):


Houston Pricing - This is the problem we see when a superstar is out for a considerable amount of time- the massive production they have get redistributed (it’s all a zero sum game, after all) which causes their teammates prices to rise to meet their new minutes/production. Then, when that superstar comes back and pulls that production back to himself, we have a period of time where his teammates’ are priced far too high for the return to normalcy. This is what is happening here. Harden (12900) would be a bargain if CP3 was out. CP3 (6600) would be a steal if Harden was out. But they are priced, at best, just fine for the minutes/production they are expected to get tonight. The only player I have an absolute fuckton of interest in tonight is Faried (7000). The Suns are 2nd worst in the NBA against Centers, and Ayton is one of the worst ranked Cs in terms of DRPM. Faried is locked into minutes here and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he gives us close to 7x in this matchup. As I said earlier, this game has the second highest O/U on the slate at 229.5 and a spread that isn’t great at HOU -8, but not one that should change how we play anything here.


Situations to monitor:


Jamal Murray Status

Man that was the most fun article ever. I know no one even cares when I do this stuff (I think only 1 person said anything to me about my KCP-Naughty by Nature thing), but my god was this so much fun. And if you use Dallas Cadavericks, I expect credit! Best of luck tonight everyone!!

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