Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. I will go over tonight’s slate as someone that plays on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that wanna help Operation: Get Me A Laptop. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! Let’s get started with the Review!
The Daily Slate:
An awesome 6 game slate. Monday is trivia night, so I am running behind. Let’s get into it.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Sixers vs Hornets PICK EM - Ahhhhh there is nothing I like more than a Pick Em. As I have described, if every game has an X% chance to go into overtime based on the spread, PICK EM is as high as it goes. And, even though it is a small boost, any extra chance of overtime is something I want to jump over. Especially if there are some awesome plays.
First, and what is surely one of the best plays on the slate, is Boban (4100). With Cody Zeller DOUBTFUL and Embiid OUT, Boban will get the privilege of lining up against one of the worst defensive Centers in the NBA, no matter who the Hornets decide to start. Boban has one of the highest PPM of any player in the NBA, and the Hornets, without Zeller, are one of the worst teams against Centers. I will say this - with the Hornets desire to play small, and Embiid being out, I do firmly expect both teams to play small, meaning Tobias (7200) and Marvin (4500) should play a lot of center. But Boban should still get 20-25 minutes and he could get 40 DKP in that time. It also means I like Tobias a lot tonight, though not as much as some others (though he did see one of the biggest bumps when Embiid was out a little while ago).
Namely Simmons (8500) and Redick (5200). After Centers, the Hornets are, by far, weakest against both types of guards. So, with both Simmons and Redick also getting huge boosts with Embiid off the floor, I will be all over them. Redick will get a ton of shots against Batum, who is awful. And Simmons will be lined up with Kemba, who he can exploit the hell out of, given his size and skill set.
The Sixers are above average against every position, so finding something on this team isn’t as easy as others. The first person you have to look at is Kemba (8100). He may be guarded by Simmons, who is fantastic, but Kemba is 9th in the NBA in usage, so, regardless of how good Simmons is, the usage is going to flow through Kemba. He will still get the assists and he will still take 20+ shots if he needs to. As I have been pointing out, it’s hard to play Kemba when Zeller is out. But this game is a pick ‘em. And these points are going to come from somewhere. The only other players anywhere near the top 100 in usage are Lamb (6100), who is overpriced, and Marvin (4500), who would get a good matchup against Tobias, and should get extra rebounds when both teams go small.
Rockets vs Hawks - Ok. So the Hawks are 2nd worst in the NBA against SG. James Harden (11200) is an SG. He is in a huge pace up spot against an abysmal overall D as well. He could be priced 12k here and I would still have interest. I am worried that his neck injury is lingering, and he may not be 100%. But, at the same time, It’s James Harden against the Hawks.
Speaking of which, Trae Young is the worst defender in the NBA. And CP3 (7100) is the 5th most expensive player in this game. He could get you 50 DKP tonight, even with Harden going off. Trae really is that terrible, and this matchup is really that good. And since the Hawks are at home, this game has a fantastic total of 232.5 with a close-enough spread of HOU -7.5. If this game stays close the whole time, both of these dudes are going to be in a lot of winning lineups.
D’Antoni has also noted that Eric Gordon is going to get a day of rest soon. If he plays, he is a fine play. If he misses, that’s more usage for CP3 and Harden. Make sure to pay attention to that tomorrow.
While I am not the biggest fan, D’Antoni also said they are going to be going small if it means getting House (3800) 30 minutes a game. If he does that, at that price, you have to lock him in. Especially since he’s getting 25DKP a game, give or take, since they’ve been giving him more run. This news makes Capela less attractive, since “going small” means playing PJ Tucker at the 5, according to the coach.
On the Hawks side, I don’t know who I want to go with, really. I love Trae (7200) generally, but he’s been cold lately, and is matched up against CP3, the best defender on the team. Collins (7500) is a walking 2x2 if he gets the run. People may just look at his 20 minutes last game and not realize he only got that little cause he fouled out. Otherwise, he gets a fine matchup against whoever the Rockets put at PF, and, if he can stay in for the whole game, he should pay off this price.
Warriors vs Wolves - The only game on the slate without an O/U yet, we are looking at a game where Cousins, Teague and RoCo are OUT, Rose and Deng are DOUBTFUL, and Iguodala and Livingston are QUESTIONABLE. With this game in MIN, and the Warriors on the 2nd night of a B2B, I expect this game to be fast paced, high scoring and, most importantly, close. So where do we attack?
First, KAT (9700) will spend the evening matched up with a rotation of Bogut, Bell, and Looney. He will destroy them. Even if they put Dray on him, he should eat tonight. Cousins would have been the only hope to stop him, and he’s out. KAT could be well over 10k and I would be all over him tonight. The fact he’s under 10k is laughable.
Second, the Warriors have been worst in the NBA against SF over the last month+. That means that, with Teague and Rose likely not playing, I will take a chance on Wiggins (5400) at that price. I know he’s scoring dependent. I know he is not good at shooting. But he keeps putting up 15 and 17 shots a game. If he has a good game against the worst part of the Warriors’ D, He is going to easily pay this price tag off.
Third, Wiggins is an AWFUL defender, and Tyus Jones is one of the best defenders in the NBA among PGs. So I would lean to Durant (8900) over Curry (9200) when picking one of the 2 stars. With Saric starting, you can also take a chance on Dray (6300), who should get a bunch of extra stuff to do if Iguodala is out as well.
Given how bad Saric is at D, I would love to take a chance on Taj (4400) getting a bunch of extra run because this game stays close, and they can’t afford to have Saric on the court for the entire 4th quarter.
I would also be a fan of taking Tyus (5200), who has been doing really poorly lately, even as the starter getting 30 minutes. It’s not without risk, so I would only take that chance in a GPP, but Tyus is going to have to do a lot tonight since there are so few other options for the Wolves. Plus, the Warriors have also been weak against guards at times. You can also consider Okogie (3600) fresh off his 10x value game. Klay is the 5th worst SG defender in the NBA according to DRPM, so Okogie should be able to have a decent game, though he is easily the riskiest play here.
The 3 Kings Centers - If you have been following along, or know anything about DFS, you want to play Centers against the Nets. Well the Kings have 3 Centers. One of them, Bagley (5400) will play 22-25 minutes at both PF and C. He could get you 35-40 DKP in that time against the Nets without a problem. WCS (5300) will get upwards of 30 minutes if this game stays close. At home, against these Nets, he could get you 45-50 DKP tonight. Lastly, while I think he is still too expensive, Giles (4000) is going to get 18-20 minutes or so and, when he gets those minutes, he could get well over 30 DKP against the Nets. I wouldn’t play more than 2 of these guys together, but I can’t imagine not playing at least one of them in every lineup I put together for tonight.
D Lo and Dinwiddie - If you only look at the last month, the Kings pass the Lakers as the team worst in the NBA against PGs. I know they are pretty bad against everything - I mean they are the 2nd fastest team giving up the 3rd most DKPPG, but they are REALLY bad against the 2 people who are 2nd and 14th in the NBA in usage over the last 15 games - D Lo (7400) and Dinwiddie (6000). They still seem to be locked into a “only one of them at a time has a good game” thing, but I will still take the chance on either one of them today. I prefer Dinwiddie, cause I love the price savings. But, honestly, both of these dudes are in 2 of the best spots on the entire slate. I just don’t want to play them together.
Pacers - The Pacers have one of the best matchups in the NBA, against a fast Clippers team that doesn’t play defense. They are 2nd worst in the NBA against C, and one of the worst teams in the NBA against PG and PF. So that writes itself, doesn’t it? Especially considering the most expensive player on this team is only 6200.
And that is Myles (6200). Who gets one of the best matchups in the NBA. In a spot he would get you 50 DKP. And he’s only 6200. That is some kind of joke. Be prepared for him to be the overwhelming chalk, if not at Center, on the slate as a whole. Of course, this means you can also fall in love with both Sabonis (5700) and Thad Young (5900), who I would be like slightly less than Myles, but still an absolute ton.
Given their weakness against PG, and his steady role since Oladipo went down, Collison (5800) is another grossly underpriced for the fact he should get you 40+ DKP against the mediocre-to-poor D of SGA.
Situations to be careful of (in no particular order):
Lakers vs Bucks - What we need to be careful of? Even though the game has an amazing 236 total, the spread is MIL -13. With LeBron limited, and the Bucks at home, this game really shouldn’t stay close. The Bucks have one of the best defenses in the game, and the Lakers are going to be playing G League caliber people for a lot of the game. The Injury Report is also bad, with Hart, Stephenson, and Chandler QUESTIONABLE for the Lakers, with Brown OUT, Ilyasova PROBABLE, Donte DOUBTFUL, and the big news, Giannis is QUESTIONABLE. That’s on top of Brogdon and Ingram being OUT.
If Giannis plays (and, honestly, why should he?), I will have to figure out who I want to play, if anyone. With this game likely over early, it’s hard to trust anyone. If he misses, I have to imagine there is more of a chance this game stays close. In that situation, I have to take a chance on Bledsoe (6400) with the LAL 2nd worst in the NBA against PG. I would also take a lot of shots on BroLo (5500), with the Lakers also one of the worst teams against Centers.
Regardless of Giannis you can take a chance on the cheap PatCon (3700) and Snell (3200), who will get a bunch of minutes no matter what, with PatCon getting that sweet blowout run as well.
On the Lakers side, everyone I like I only like as “price plays”, not because I think they are necessarily going to do well today. A price play is when someone is so cheap, and has enough of a ceiling/production potential, that you take the player at the too-low price regardless of how bad the situation is (whether it be they are against a good D, a good defender, have been in a cold streak, etc..) So, tonight, Kuzma (5900) is FAR too cheap for someone who could get you 30 real points, which would be more than value. He can shoot the 3, and that’s where the Bucks are weakest (plus, against PFs, so double bonus). I also have to keep running out Alex Caruso (3600) who is getting a ton of run with Ingram out. He is a threat to get 10x every single day. His price hasn’t adjusted yet, and neither has ownership. Especially in a matchup against the Bucks, I expect his popularity to continue to be well under what it should be. Except for you and me, my friend.
Clippers - The Pacers are one of the slowest, most methodical Ds in the game. Myles Turner is a fantastic defender and Block Machine. They have the best D against PG in the game. It’s just not a place where we can be comfortable attacking them. They also have been playing a 9 man rotation, with a couple of the bench guys both ranked highly in DRPM. So where, if anywhere, can we attack? Well, we can attack from the bench, so, that is where I am going to go. I will skip SGA, I will pass on Gallo and Zubac and PatBev. If I am going to go anywhere, I am going to take, first, Montrezl (6600) who would get a bunch of run against Sabonis while Zubac will absorb most of the Myles. I would also take a chance on LouWill (6800) who should be able to have his way with either Cory Joseph or Tyreke, although both have been decent defenders this year. Other than that, if I am building one lineup, I am avoiding the Clippers cause there’s just too many other amazing spots on this slate to have to take that big a risk, just for the chance of a late night hammer.
Situations to monitor:
Eric Gordon Maybe Resting???
Hart, Stephenson, Chandler QUESTIONABLE
Iguodala, Livingston QUESTIONABLE
Rose, Deng DOUBTFUL
Alright that does it for a fun 6 game slate with a TON of great plays! I hope it stays like this, and we get all the news early, and can spend the day just figuring out what we want to do and why. Best of luck everyone!