Search

bathrobeDFS breakdown March 14th!



Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. I will go over tonight’s slate as someone that plays on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium.

The Daily Slate:

Another 6 game slate! Yay! Even worse games than yesterday! Oh no!


Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):


Wes Matthews - Until it sinks in, and until ownership and everything else catch up, I will keep screaming on a mountain, that, whenever the Thunder are playing, we need to target SGs against them the way we target Cs against the Nets. Look at what Dinwiddie did to them. Look at what LouWill did to them. And get ready for what Wes Matthews (4200) is going to do to them. I wouldn’t be surprised at all, with Tyreke out, if he doesn’t get 35 minutes and 30-35 DKP here. At that price, I will be all over that. I also think that Cory Joseph (3500) will get a ton of run at the 2, and I would be a big fan of taking a chance on him as well. This is a MASSIVE pace up spot for IND, but the only place I really want to attack the Thunder is at SG.


Underpriced Cavs - So Tristan, Nance, and Delly are all going to be OUT tonight. You can take a chance on Love (8100) in his 30 or so minutes against the stellar D of Vuc in a slow matchup against a great team D, but I won’t take that chance, unless they somehow say he is unleashed and will get us 35+ minutes. In this matchup, against a Magic team giving up the least DKPPG, if I go anywhere, I’m going cheap. I’m gonna start with Chriss (3300), who will get a ton of minutes off his unfair suspension. I will take Knight (3500), who will be starting against Fournier, and should be able to get 20 DKP here, and at a cheap price. I would also be fine going up to a Clarkson (5100) or Sexton (5000) who will get a decent matchup, decent minutes, and are cheap enough they shouldn’t kill you. I’d prefer Clarkson given his usage, but I don’t mind either.


Cheaper Magic - Given how bad this Cavs team is, except for the defense of Kevin Love, I will look to go cheap here. You can attack Collin Sexton, one of the worst defenders in the NBA, with Augustin (4400) and add in some Jerian Grant (3300) if you want to go with a riskier punt who will have an amazing matchup no matter who is playing PG for the Cavs. You can take Isaac (5200) or Ross (5300) who will get a ton of minutes lined up against Cedi, who is also an awful defender. With Chriss getting a bunch of run at PF, we can also target Aaron Gordon (6500). This is an important game for the Magic. They need everyone to go all out. And I have no problem focusing on teams that have something to play for, or teams trying as hard as they can to do the spoiling.


Kyrie - I will first point out that the Celtics, at home, should absolutely destroy the Kings. But, at this point in the season, who knows. What I do know, is this is an incredible pace up spot for Boston, against a team that that gives up one of the highest DKPPG. They are bad across the board, and no one they will start will be able to stop Kyrie (8900). He controls the usage on this team, even moreso if Smart is out, and he will be able to do whatever he wants. He is someone who has shown his 60 DKP upside in good matchups, and this is one of the best matchups he can have. If he gets to play a full game here, I would be more surprised if he doesn’t hit 50 DKP than if he does. If Smart is out, I will also be a fan of taking Jaylen Brown (4600). Additionally, if you think this game blows out, make sure you are locking Brown in there tonight. The last thing I will point out is that Marcus Morris (4500) is just far too underpriced for the run he will get against a terrible front court D.

Barnes and Bjelica - If I am going to attack the Celtics, which is not something I normally want to do, I will attack them through Marcus Morris, who is the only awful defender on this Celtics team. With Bagley probably out again, I will take a shot on Barnes (5500), who will get the start, and most of the run, at PF. But I will also be interested in Bjelica (4900), who should get significant run as well, when Barnes moves over to SF.


Marc Gasol - Oh, Serge Ibaka. You stupid, angry idiot. While the three game suspension is bad for you and bad for opposing Centers, it is great for DFS players who get to play Marc Gasol (5900) who could get 50 DKP here. I can tell you he will be the most chalky play on the day. And, honestly, I don’t care. I can already do my good chalk/bad chalk and tell you that, regardless of how high owned he is, it won’t be enough. If I decide to do the multi entry strategy tonight, I will have 100% Gasol. I would be a big fan of Lowry (7700) as well, seeing as how the Lakers have been worst in the NBA against PG lately. I know he’s tough to play with Kawhi in, but I will love him anyway in this spot. Plus, who knows if Kawhi actually plays anymore. This game has a 10 point spread. The Raptors are pretty comfortably in the 2nd seed. Why even bother at this stage. Regardless, gimme all the Gasol and some of the Lowry.


KAT - Regardless of Ayton shitting his pants last night, the Jazz have been awful against Centers. They are far above average against every other position. But they can be attacked by Centers and KAT (10200) is one of those Centers that could really make Gobert pay. Right now Teague is QUESTIONABLE, Wiggins is QUESTIONABLE, Rose is QUESTIONABLE, and RoCo and Deng are still OUT. If any/all of them miss, KAT would be the play of the day (assuming this game stays close, which may be a pipe dream). If they all play, KAT would still be one of the plays of the day, except there would be a better chance this game stays close, and KAT’s ownership would go down. Depending on who is out, we have to decide who the good plays are on this team. That is something I will deal with tomorrow, once news breaks after shootaround, and I write my good chalk/bad chalk. As of right now, KAT is the main play I have interest in and, depending on who misses, I would also love to take Tyus (4200) and KBD (3500) should they become playable.


Ricky Rubio - With how poorly the Wolves have been performing defensively lately, you can really take anyone from the Jazz team. Donovan (8300) is 4th in the NBA in usage, and no one will be able to stop him on this Wolves team. But the best play is Rubio (5300), who has seen his price crash and fall due to injury and limited minutes coming back from injury. I would expect him to get back to 30 minutes tomorrow, as the Jazz get ready for the playoffs. They need to win this to stay in 7th, or else they fall into 8th and have to face the Warriors in the first round. So Rubio is going to have a field day today, and if he doesn’t get you 6x, I will be surprised (or the game blew out).


Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):


The Thunder - I know it’s not going to win me many fans, and I’m sure a lot of people are going to have trolling me if this doesn’t work out, but I just don’t want any part of this Thunder team. The Pacers are best in the NBA against PG. The Pacers are best in the NBA against SF. That is Russ and PG13 right there. I understand their ceilings. I understand this game is supposed to stay close. But I also know how slow and methodical this Pacers D is. And I know that, with that in mind, I just don’t think any of these guys gives you a good enough game to help you win, not when there are other expensive stars that could outperform them at cheaper prices.


Mavs vs Nuggets - So, I know we can’t expect blowouts, but this has an 11 point spread, the Mavs have been AWFUL lately, and the Nuggets are one of the best teams in basketball. On top of that, since they traded away Jordan, the Mavs have been AWFUL against Centers. So, if you want to go anywhere expensive today, and you think this game stays close, start and end with Jokic (10000). If he can get 35 minutes, he can get you 60+ DKP here with no effort at all. The Mavs have also been one of the worst in the NBA against PG, so you can take a chance on Murray (6400) or, if you think this game blows out, take a chance on

Monte Morris (3500). Additionally, Gary Harris (3900) keeps seeing his price fall, even though he’s starting, and even though he should get 30 minutes and could get you 25-30 DKP here. I don’t know how he is 3900, but we need to be all over that, regardless of how this game ends up. Last thing on the Denver side, play Plumlee (4400). He is going to get backup run at C against this awful Mavs Center D, and then will get any and all blow out run. If he blows past 30 DKP I wouldn’t be shocked at all.


With Doncic still dealing with a sore knee, making him hobbled and unplayable, I really don’t think this game has any chance to stay close. But I would still love to take a chance on Brunson (5300), who exploded last game with Doncic injured. He should be able to do the same, and would get run into a blow out as well. Also Kleber (3700) could get back to the starting lineup again. Even if he doesn’t, he could still get 35 minutes of run here, a lot of which will be against DEN backups, and the 3rd stringers in blow out time.


Situations to monitor:


Hart QUESTIONABLE, Stephenson QUESTIONABLE, Chandler QUESTIONABLE - With the Lakers already given up, I don’t know why they would push anyone. Especially not Hart. But who the hell knows. Send em to another country even if they may not play. The Raptors are in the middle in pace, and have a good D, and are projected to blow this game out. So, if all of these people are out, I will have most of my Lakers interest in Alex Caruso (3200), who should be guaranteed 20+ minutes and who knows what he can do with that. I wouldn’t chase the points for KCP (3500). I don’t know that they give Moritz (3400) any more run. It’s just not a great spot. McGee is lined up against Gasol. It’s just not a great spot. If you want to play 28 minutes of Lebron at 10500 with Kawhi defending him, I won't stop you. I just can't do it.


Alright, time to eat some dinner and get some sleep. Have a wonderful day!

DAILY FANTASY SPORTS - CHEATSHEETS - ANALYTICS - VALUE PLAYS - MATCHUP BREAKDOWNS - ARTICLES - EXCEL OPTIMIZERS - PREMIUM FACEBOOK CHAT

  • Facebook Social Icon
  • Twitter Social Icon