Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
The Bathrobe vs. Pocket_Saand Head-To-Head Series:
He is Cash. I am GPP. Let’s keep track of how a daily head-to-head stacks up.
N/A - I don’t know what happened. I was very sleepy today from my medicine and I think I forgot to accept it. I would have probably lost though I don’t know so we’ll chalk it to an off day and get back to it tomorrow! My bad!
The Daily Slate:
Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day
Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here
The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
DeAndre Jordan - Narrative aside, this is as good a spot as Jordan (6400) could be in this season. But the narrative does exist, and I’m not sure if Jordan is one of the players that won’t let that motivate him (even if it’s not a hatred that’s driving him, just a desire to play harder against his old team- though we have to remember that he got out of a deal with the Mavs to rejoin the Clippers LAST YEAR before they blew the team up, stranding him in hell). As I have noted the last couple times we’ve seen them on a slate, the Clippers are to bad Center Defense what James Harden is to usage. Let’s look at the statistics. Over the last month, the Clippers have allowed 68.2 DK PPG to the Center position. This is the most points any team has allowed to any position. 2nd is the Suns who allow 61.8 DKPPG to the Center position (Hello, KAT!). That is a difference of 6.4 PPG. If you take 6.4 PPG off of the Suns’ 61.8, you get 55.4, which is right above the 12th placeJazz, who are at 55.2, and just above the league average, which is 54.6. So again, to put it another way, The Clippers are so bad against Centers that the 2nd worst team is about as close to league average as they are to the Clippers.
It is worth noting that, if you go to PF rankings, the worst is the Cavs, at 56.7 DKPPG and 2nd worst is the Clippers, again, at 56.5 DKPPG. This tells us this isn’t just them sliding one good defender over. This isn’t some kind of aberration. The Clippers are absolutely fucking awful, in every metric, against the Bigs. This means that Jordan, who is getting 30-33 minutes every single game, and who has gotten 35+ DKP 3 of his last 4 games (including 39.25 DKP with 15p/15r and 2 blocks yesterday- and that was against Brook Lopez, who is top 10 in DRPM and shoots a fuck load of 3s.) I don’t think there’s any question Jordan has the easy ability to get to 20/20 tonight. Even though DSJ is supposed to come back, it shouldn't’ have any effect on Jordan’s minutes or production since DSJ will be limited anyway. The Clippers are also one of the fastest teams in the NBA, meaning the Mavs are in a great, pace up spot here. LouWill was expected to miss 2 games (this being game 2), and Gallo has already been ruled out, so I worry that the lack of a Vegas total/spread means this game might be projected to blow out. I don’t think I will go that route though.
Dallas has been weakest against forwards, by far, meaning that Tobias Harris (8000), who has been asked to carry the load the last 2 games (successfully), will have to do so again, and won’t face much defensive resistance. I also love the spot for Doncic (8400) fresh off his triple-double yesterday. Even with DSJ back, limiting Doncic’s assist upside, DSJ has missed a lot of time (and should be limited) and Barea is still out (meaning more shots to go around for both Doncic and Jordan, to a lesser degree). While I don’t think he’s as likely to get a triple-double as he was yesterday, I still think he will do an overwhelming majority of the ballhandling, and a 3x2 wouldn’t shock me at all. Plus, the shooting 20+ times. Which Jordan will be able to turn into so many offensive rebounds. Basically, what I’m saying is Jordan is my favorite play of the day. But, in a 4 game slate, I am going to tell a story like I told yesterday. And this one involves playing Jordan, Doncic, and Harris. All 3 are fantastic today.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Blazers vs. Thunder - This is another tough game to pick without just going to the obvious people. While Pinnacle hasn’t put out their line/spread yet, other places have it as 228, with OKC -5.5. I don’t expect it to be that far off that, which means we can expect a high scoring, close game. The Thunder are on a back-to-back, but played at 1230 so they have plenty of time to rest. The Blazers, though, played last night in Utah then had to fly east a time zone, losing an hour in the process. On top of that, unlike the Thunder, the Blazers faced a close contest where the starters had to play their normal minutes. I don’t really expect this to matter, given how close this is supposed to be, but it’s something you should be aware of to make the choice for yourself. In the last 15 games, the Thunder are 1st in pace and the Blazers are 18th, so the Blazers players get a bump. In terms of defenses, Portland, while they had been weaker on the season against SF, over the last month, with Harkless starting, they are now above average against every position. The Thunder are above average against every position except SG and, to a lesser degree, SF. PG13 is the #1 rated SF in DRPM, so what they tells me is they are just moving PG13 around to whoever is better, whether it’s the SG or SF. Russ and Adams are also top 10 in DRPM, while Nurkic is the only Blazer in the top 10 (and he is 3rd among Cs). Like I said, that’s a lot of potential land mines we have to navigate. I would expect Russ (11000)and PG13 (9700) to spend their time guarding Lillard (8100) and CJ (6000). Lillard is cheap enough here that I have no problem rolling with him and his 11th-in-the-NBA usage. CJ, though, would become a non-factor. A lot of people might assume CJ is in a good matchup, but they aren’t accounting for the fact that, you know, you can choose who defends who. It’s not set in stone. I would also have interest in playing Russ and/or PG13 if you think this is the game that’s gonna break the slate tonight (or if you like one of them). I think Russ is in a great spot, but PG13 has been playing on another level, Harkless is getting less than 20 minutes a game, and PG13 should be able to demolish Evan Turner in the 15-20 minutes they might share on the court tonight. Grant (5300) is also in a sneaky spot for the Thunder. He is going to get the minutes, and he will almost always get you 5-7x value. Of course, most of the time I point him out he doesn’t do it, but the 90% of the other times he does. Check the logs, I swear!!! I look at Adams (6200) as a matchup dependent play, and I don’t like the matchup tonight. Nurkic (7500), on the other hand, has proven that matchups don't’ matter. He has become the clear #2 option when he is on the court, regardless of who the other team has at the 5. 7500 is just too cheap for the kind of upside he can provide even in difficult matchups. Turner (4300) and Layman (3600) have also been getting significant run lately, even with the return of Harkless, and I think they are both fine punts to take tonight. Noel (3300) is also too cheap for the 20 DKP he can get you in his 15 minutes. If Adams gets into foul trouble against the great D of Nurkic (not likely, but possible), Noel could get extra run and turn into one of those 4 game slate wonders that wins someone a lot of money.
The cheaper options in DAL/LAC - I already talked about Jordan, Harris, and Doncic earlier. But there’s plenty more to like here. SGA (4600) still got 38 minutes last game, even though his production made it seem like he didn’t. He wound up shooting 3-15, which is incredibly poor for him. He also disappointed in a chalky spot, so I assume a lot of people are going to look at the other guards on the Clippers and his ownership will be really low. He is still in as good a spot as he was a couple games ago when he put up 40 DKP. Don’t ignore him here. PatBev (4800) had a ceiling game on the back of getting 12 rebounds and 4 steals (not sustainable for him). He only shot 9 times. I would have had more interest if he was down under 4k again, but this is just an overreaction for someone not even getting 10 shots off a game. Bradley (4000) on the other hand has shot the ball 15,13, and 10 times his last three games, and is still priced low enough you can take the risk for the 40 minutes he will get with LouWill out (especially with his D needed on Doncic/Matthews). On the other side, if DSJ (4500) is supposed to get 25+ minutes, he would be an interesting punt. If he is getting less than 20, Brunson (3900) would still be in a great spot at that price. Ditto DFS (3700).
Towns/Rose - When going against an abysmal Defense, I often say the best thing you can do is go after the people with the highest usage. In this case, since these teams just played against each other with much of the same rosters, you can check the box score to see that this proved completely true 2 days ago, and should prove true again. Rose (6300) and KAT (10600) are top 35 in the NBA in usage (with no other Wolf close) and, since this game is in Phoenix, it isn’t projected to blow out (228.5, MIN -6). This should give both guys full minutes. If you saw the 4th quarter, you know how easy Rose made it look to score like 20 DKP in a short stretch of time against these Suns. If you saw the whole game, you saw how easy KAT made it look for someone who is 7-ish feet tall to demolish a undersized group of “bigs” when given the chance, especially if their only option is Dragan Bender. For this game, Ayton is doubtful, but Holmes (4100) is questionable now. Even if he plays, he is only 6 foot 8 and he won’t be able to stop KAT at all. Once again, the only person on the Suns who will have a shot to stop KAT, and someone who just saw a 1000 price increase, is Bender (4000) who is still probably underpriced for the 30+ minutes they are going to need him tonight. If anything, Holmes should see a bunch of extra run at PF against an oversized Taj Gibson while Bender plays at C.
Suns - While this game should blow out, regardless of if Phoenix is at home, it isn’t projected to. That means that Booker (8300) who is 3rd in the NBA in usage and priced like he is 30th, is once again a fantastic play (even though he didn’t produce in MIN). I also recommended Oubre (5600) and Josh Jackson (4100) and, though both are still in great spots, both would be slightly less productive with the return of Holmes (4100). Holmes, if he plays without restriction, would be a great play since he would get some PF run and the backup C run if need be (he is the backup C anyway). As I noted earlier, Bender (4000) saw a huge price increase, but he is the only one with the height on this team to contend with KAT. If Bender starts tomorrow, expect him to get 30 minutes and to exceed value, easily. If the Suns announce that Holmes is starting, drop everything you are doing and get KAT into every lineup you have (to whatever maximum exposure you are comfortable with).
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Nothing!! (yay!) (I addressed things to be careful of in the bulk of the other analysis)
Situations to monitor:
Kawhi in a back-to-back - Right now, there is no indication that Kawhi will be out. But we should all know by now that doesn’t matter. What matters is that Kawhi (9300) doesn’t play both games on back-to-backs. Tonight the Raptors are playing the Kings, at home. While most books don’t have an O/U or spread yet, the ones that do have TOR winning by double digits. Tomorrow night, the Raptors are playing the Pacers, who they are battling in the East, in a game that really matters a lot. If you were going to rest Kawhi one of those games, which would it be??? I know what I’d choose. If he plays, for some reason, I would expect this game to blow out. But, in a 4 game slate, that doesn’t really matter. Kawhi is far too cheap for a matchup against the fast as fuck, no-D Kings. He could get 50+DKP in his sleep, and he’s not priced enough for that. If he is in, I would also have interest in playing either Ibaka (5900)or Siakam (6300). Either one could go nuts against the Kings, though, and I would take Siakam if Bagley starts and Ibaka if Bjelica starts (Bagley is terrible at D, Bjelica is very good). If Kawhi is ruled out (which I honestly expect), I would lock Lowry (7600) in immediately. Then all the usual suspects. In preference order- FVV (4700), Ibaka/Siakam (depending on who the Kings start at PF), CJ Miles (3400), Norm Powell (3800), Delon Wright (4100). It is amazing what missing Kawhi opens up, and how cheap everyone is priced for this matchup. On the SAC side of the ball, while it does also matter if Kawhi is in or not, it is honestly hard to trust most of the Kings roster. Even in a game against the Nets, in a game they were leading at the half, the Jesters got outscored 68-34 in the 2nd half and wound up blown out. Bjelica (3900) drew the start but only played 4 minutes for some reason. I see no indication he was injured, or that something happened to him. Frank Mason played about 2 minutes. Then 9 people played between 16 and 32 minutes, with Shumpert (3900) and Bogdan (5200) leading the pack in minutes. In his 32 minutes today, Bogdan put up 22p/11a/6r/2s on the way to 50.5DKP. If you were taking a chance tonight, if Kawhi is out and won’t be guarding the SFs, I don’t think it’s point chasing to have Bogdan as your favorite play tonight on this team. If you believe this game blows out, Giles (3600) is a really interesting punt tonight, who has the chance to get you 20-25 minutes and 30+DKP if everything goes right. If you want to take a chance on any of the other Kings know that it is just that- taking a chance and not an informed play (and there is NOTHING wrong with that- this is part luck after all, and any of them could go off). If WCS (6100) can’t clear 22DKP against the NETS, i don’t know what to tell you. His Home/Away splits are bad enough that, if he can’t produce against the Nets, I just can’t go there in a harder matchup. Regardless, Fox (7300) and Hield (6900) are too expensive for seeing the D of Lowry and Green. Lucky enough, this game goes off at 7pm so we should be able to work everything out well in advance.
Ok! That was a short one. That’s good. Monday is trivia night (the one time I go out every week) and I don’t get home until midnight or so. Depending on how this all shakes out, I may try to do a Good Chalk/Bad Chalk. Either way, best of luck tonight everyone!!