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bathrobeDFS MLB Breakdown for April 3rd!


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Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings.


With that being said, let’s get into it!

Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)


MIL (Peralta, RHP) vs CIN (Castillo, RHP) - 1235pm - O/U - 8.5, Pick Em

Clear, Nice Day! Beautiful baseball weather. Temps around 60. Light winds.

PHI (Nola, RHP) vs WAS (Sanchez, RHP) - 105pm - O/U - 7.5, PHI -129

Clear, Another beautiful baseball day. Temps climbing to 70. Winds varying in direction, but strong.

CWS (Rodon, LHP) vs CLE (Kluber, RHP) - 110pm - O/U - 7, CLE -195

Cool, Clear. Temps in the high 40s. Winds strong -15mph, blowing across the field. Bonus to pitchers.

COL (Marquez, RHP) vs TB (Morton, RHP) - 110pm - O/U - 7, TB -127

DOME

MIN (Gibson, RHP) vs KC (Bailey, RHP) - 115pm - O/U - 8.5, MIN -138

Overcast and Warm. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out to LF at 13 mph through the game. Boost to RH bats.

ARI (Ray, LHP) vs SD (Lucchesi, LHP) - 340pm - O/U - 7.5, SD -130

San Diego weather!!

DET (Boyd, LHP) vs NYY (Loaisiga, RHP) - 405pm - O/U - 9.5, NYY - 185

Warm. Temps in the mid 60s. VERY WINDY - Winds blowing straight out at 20mph through the game. Huge, huge boost to bats.

BAL (Karns, RHP) vs TOR (Shoemaker, RHP) - 407pm - O/U - 8.5, TOR -160

DOME

NYM (deGrom, RHP) vs MIA (Richards, RHP) - 610pm - O/U - 7, NYM -210

DOME

STL (Mikolas, RHP) vs PIT (Taillion, RHP) - 705pm - O/U - 7.5, STL -120

Clear and Cool. Temps around 50. Wind lightening through the game. Should have no impact.

CHC (Lester, LHP) vs ATL (Teheran, RHP) - 720pm - O/U - 8.5, ATL -120

Partly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 70. Light winds.

HOU (Cole, RHP) vs TEX (Minor, LHP) - 805pm - O/U - 9, HOU -168

Overcast and Warm. Temps around 65 through the game. HEAVY WINDS. Blowing IN the entire game at 17mph. Huge boost to Pitchers.

BOS (Eovaldi, RHP) vs OAK (Estrada, RHP) - 1007pm - O/U - 8.5, BOS -128

Overcast and Warm. Temps around 60. Light winds. OAK weather.

SF (Holland, LHP) vs LAD (Stripling, RHP) - 1010pm - O/U - 7.5, LAD -205

Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the 60s. Winds light. LA weather.


The Early Slate

A fun 5 game slate. Some good pitchers. Some good stacks. Should be a fun day. For those that are new to baseball, today are tomorrow are what’s called “getaway days.” That signifies an end of a series, where one or both of the teams are going to have to travel or “get away.” Because of that, the MLB schedule generally has only night games on Mondays and Tuesdays as teams start a series. On Wednesdays and Thursdays when series are finishing there will generally be 2 slates. One early slate and one late. Most getaway days will be like this. Then most Fridays are all night games. And weekends you’ve seen - a split day on Saturday, with most games on Sunday going off at 1 and 4 with one single Sunday night game. So let’s dive in to the first early slate on the first getaway day of this season!


Pitchers (in chronological order, basically)


Great Pitchers

Aaron Nola (10200, RHP) at WAS - Nola is in the category of “Potential Cy Young winners that you can play every day.” Let’s look at the numbers from last season. 33 GS, 212.1 IP, 224 K, 2.37 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 0.975 WHIP. Phenomenal stuff. He had 17 starts over 100 pitches and 16 under 100 pitches. 12% of fly balls against him were Infield Flies. I mean, dude had a 10.5 WAR. There are very few pitchers in the entire sport of baseball that are better than Aaron Nola. I can’t state that enough. Every single time he pitches, he is a viable play. I mean, sure Washington is a good team with a good lineup. But Nola is a beast and I feel like the public just doesn’t know that well enough yet. Plus, he gets a Nats lineup that will be missing Trea Turner due to a broken index finger, suffered from a HBP yesterday. His replacement is Wilmer Difo, which is like replacing a steak with a big mac - or, if you’re vegan, i’m sorry (i’m kidding, don’t send letters.)


German Marquez (9900, RHP) at TB - Marquez, like Nola, is a fantastic pitcher who gets ignored. It’s easy to ignore someone that pitches for the Rockies, but he is a legit ace. He had a K/9 of almost 11. He had an FIP of 3.40 as a starter that started predominantly in Coors. He is also someone with incredible home/away splits (something you really need to look at for Rockies players). He is decent at home, sure, but he is absolutely lights-out away from Coors. Now we get him in an extreme pitchers park in TB. Sign me up. What’s even more fun? He will be completely overlooked tomorrow with people going above and below him, price-wise.


Charlie Morton (8800, RHP) vs COL - This is one of those pitchers whose price and pedigree will make it so that people sleep on Marquez. But, to a degree, that’s ok. Cause Morton is a fucking awesome pitcher who can strike out a ton of people taking on a Rockies team that’s hitting worse than the BLUE JAYS lately. They can’t stop getting shut out. He doesn’t allow baserunners or runs. He has a K/9 of almost 11. And he’s way underpriced here. Don’t overthink this one, regardless of how chalky he is (and I expect him to be extremely chalky).


Good Pitchers, Bad Spots

Luis Castillo (8100, RHP) vs MIL - Castillo is a fantastic pitcher that can be as hit or miss as it gets. When he is on, he looks unhittable and will rack up double digit Ks. We saw that Castillo on opening day when, on a short leash, he struck out 8 in 5.2 IP. The thing with Castillo, though, is he is an extreme splits pitcher. That means he is absolutely dominant against RHB but has a lot of trouble with LHB. This is going to be a big problem against this MIL lineup that features a bunch of LH power from top to bottom. This is one of those situations (like almost anyone that would be in this category or the GPP category) where I advise, if doing MME, you get exposure to both Castillo AND the MIL Lefties.


GPP Plays

Freddy Peralta (7500, RHP) at CIN - I don’t love Peralta, but I do know enough about him to know that he is a dangerous pitcher with a ton of upside that is absolute murder on RHB. If you look at his first game, he came out of the gate really shaky, giving up a HR to Goldie right after walking Carpenter. He then hit the next hitter before getting Ozuna to ground into a fielder’s choice. Ozuna then came around on a double by Yadi Molina. Peralta lost Fowler on a 3-2 pitch before the pitching coach came out, settled Peralta down, and he struck out the next 2 batters. Over the next couple of innings, he gave up a single to Goldy, a double to Ozuna, another walk to Fowler, and then started off the 4th giving up a cheap knock to the opposing pitcher on an 0-2 count and another hit to Carpenter on an 0-2 count before being pulled. To me, knowing Peralta is someone that has trouble with LHB but is absolute murder on RHB, that seems like someone who might have had the first-start jitters and, after being unable to settle in, was given a quick hook. I would expect, against a much less imposing Reds lineup Peralta will have more success. There’s a couple tough Lefties there, sure (more on that later), but he should also be able to get himself more than a couple easy strikeouts and put up a high enough score to pay this salary today.


Anibal Sanchez (5900, RHP) vs PHI - This is not a play for the weak stomached among you. Sanchez is someone who had been coming off pretty terrible 2016 and 2017s. He was 7-13 with a 5.87 ERA in 2016 and 3-7 with a 6.41 ERA in 2017. Both years he was removed as a starter and placed in the bullpen. Last year, the Braves took a chance on him and, for the most part, he came through. He got a 7-6 record with 2.83 ERA in 24 starts, racking up 136.2 IP and 135 Ks. The deeper stats tell of someone who had a bit of a 2nd wind year, though, and not a complete renaissance. His FIP was 3.62, nearly a full point more than his ERA. This is in stark contrast to 16/17, when Sanchez’ FIP was significantly lower. This shows just how important defense is behind certain pitchers. Fortunately for Sanchez, he will be playing in front of one of the best Ds in the MLB, according to fangraphs projections. Though that would be different without Trea. His WHIP was 1.08 which is the lowest it’s ever been in his career. His H/9 was 7.0 which was the lowest in his career. We are going have to see how age and a completely new set of teammates and coaches treats Sanchez. He could be someone we regularly pick on (if he is 2016-17 Sanchez) or someone we can get for value (if he pitches like last year). This early in the season, I’m all for taking a chance on him at this price, especially since it’s only a 5 game slate. Also, playing him with any other pitcher would pretty much allow us to fit in any bat we wanted on this slate. Even if he has a mediocre game, that might give us enough points to take down a GPP.


Carlos Rodon (7000, LHP) at CLE - This is a play that is going to sneak under the radar because people don’t realize that CLE is a shell of the offense it was last year without Lindor at the top of the order. He will be back soon enough, I’m sure. And the pitching is more than enough to make up for any offensive deficiencies. But, that being said, they are real, real weak right now. And they get a kid in Rodon who was a top prospect with lightning stuff and huge upside that could never find enough control to make the jump to the next level. His first start was good, though, suffering a tough luck loss against a KC team that got a fantastic start from Keller that day. He still went 5.1 IP, only allowing 3 hits with 1 walk and getting 6 Ks. Another thing going for him? He’s a reverse splits pitcher who will only see 1 LHB in this Indians lineup. Like I said, this is a kid that will go overlooked today, but he has all the upside in the world. And he could make good on that against a poor Indians team.


***Batters ***

Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)


Brewers vs Castillo (RHP, @CIN) The Brewers get to travel to Great American Smallpark for a tough matchup against Castillo. Well a tough matchup for their RHB. For the LHB? Time to eat at low ownership!! Just last season, Castillo gave up an OPS of .587 to RHB and .882 to LHB. You have to go there if you can. Like I said earlier, this is a spot where, if you MME, you should have some shares of Castillo and some shares of MIL LHB.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 3

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB ONLY

Preferred Players: Yelich (OF - 5500), Shaw (1B/3B - 4300), Moustakas (2B - 4600), Grandal (C - 4100)


Phillies vs Sanchez (RHP, @WAS) - I did a full write up of Sanchez above. As I mentioned, he is coming off a good year preceded by 2 horrific years. If he pitches like the horrific Sanchez, Phillies are gonna score 10 runs in the first 3 innings. One thing to note - Sanchez shows reverse splits, so you can prioritize RHB and separate yourself from the field.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 5

Chalk Level (1-10): 9

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: If you are stacking this, you are going all in. So start at the top and work down. So - McCutchen (OF - 3800), Segura (SS - 3700), Bryce (OF - 4500), Hoskins (1B - 4100), Realmuto (C - 3800), etc..


Royals vs Gibson (RHP, MIN) - Kyle Gibson will finally be making his 1st start this season, after Berrios made his 2nd. That should tell you that this is a 31 year old we shouldn’t expect all too much out of (although he had a good year last year.) Last season, he had a FIP of 4.13, which was decent, but his WHIP of 1.302 was not. He gave up a ton of walks. So much so, if he had given up his career level of H/9, he would have had a WHIP of 1.44. He also gives up a decent amount of HR, meaning he is someone we are going to be able to stack against every time he pitches, for the most part. Today we get KC in the lucky spot. It’s worth noting a couple of things - 1st, before last season, when he had a K/9 of 8.2, he had never been over 6.9. I expect him to go back down under 7. All the better to help keep rallies going. Second, he is a normal splits pitcher, so make sure you prioritize LHB against him.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7

Chalk Level (1-10): 3

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Whit (2B/OF - 4900), Mondesi (SS - 5100), Soler (OF - 3900), O’Hearn (1B - 3900), Duda (1B - 4100), etc..


Twins vs Homer Bailey (RHP, @KC) - Homer Bailey is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. This stack is going to be chalk and I don’t care. Bailey is entering his age 33 season and, if it’s anything like his age 32 season, he will be unemployed before long and Ian Kennedy will be next up to work his way towards unemployment. Bailey had an FIP of 5.55 last season with a WHIP of 1.636. He gave up 11.9 H/9 and a horrific 1.9 HR/9. He’s also equally bad against RHP and LHP, but extra horrible against LHP when it comes to slugging, so play every single LHP that you can against him.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Everyone. Including the ghost of Kirby Puckett. Kepler (OF - 4400), Polanco (SS - 4100), Cruz (OF - 5000), Rosario (OF - 4700), Cron (1B - 4500), etc..


One-Off Batters


Reds Lefties - Writing this at 1am, it’s hard to know exactly who is going to start. I assume that we will get Winkler (OF - 3700), Votto (1B - 4000), Barnhart (C - 3300), and Schebler (OF - 3900). It should be noted, though - Schebler is a reverse splits hitter, meaning he is better against LHP. Also, Barnhart is a much better hitter as a Righty meaning he is also better against LHP. I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on any one of them (or a 2 or 3 person mini stack). Though, again, Peralta is a tough pitcher who can have a lights-out game if everything is going right.


Rhys Hoskins (1B - 4900) - Hoskins is my favorite batter on this slate. He is an extreme reverse splits hitter going against a reverse splits pitcher. If you’re doing that math at home, that means Hoskins is going to get you a HR today. EVEN IF YOU PLAY SANCHEZ he is cheap enough you can ALSO play Hoskins and still have a GPP winning lineup.

HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Rhys Hoskins


Main Slate

This is a lot more tricky than this afternoon. Very few pitching options. A TON of stacks we will want to play. It will be interesting to see how you all decide to attack it. I will focus on 2 pitchers and make lineups with them and a bunch of different stacks around them.


Pitchers (in chronological order, basically)

Great Pitchers


Jameson Taillon (7900, RHP) vs STL - I know he didn’t have the best start of his career against the Reds on Opening Day, but I stand by what I said about him that day - he is a legit ace and will be a top 10 pitcher for the Cy Young this year. He has talent. He has drive. And he’s getting better. A 3.20 ERA with a similarly impressive 3.46 FIP. A 1.178 WHIP. A K/9 of 8.4. A HR/9 of 0.9. 20 of his 32 starts were QS. SO-BB is 16.9%. I mean, I could just go on, but I’m just reading off amazing stats he put up. This isn’t the easiest lineup to face in the Cards, but apart from Carpenter and Goldie, he shouldn’t have much trouble getting through these guys while racking up the Ks.


Gerrit Cole (11400, RHP) at TEX - As I have said a bunch of times now, Cole is my pick for Cy Young in the AL this year. He is a great pitcher and getting greater. He doesn’t walk anyone. He barely gives up any hits. He strikes out a ton of people (Opening Day he got 10 K in 6 IP). If he goes longer today (or even if he doesn’t) we can almost guarantee double digit Ks. You can’t say that about a lot of people. If you are new to DFS, you may be shocked to hear that pitchers will reach the 13-14k range eventually. Cole is still laughably underpriced due to how early it is in the season. I don’t care if he’s 75% owned and you are playing GPP, if you are doing one lineup and you don’t play Cole on this slate you should just burn your money instead. If you do MME, feel free to not have in some lineups, obviously. But don’t get cute here.

No Thanks


Nate Eovaldi (9000, RHP) at OAK - While you might be surprised when looking at Nate Eovaldi and his electric, 100-mph stuff, he doesn’t strike people out. He has the lowest K/9 of anyone on the Red Sox staff, hovering around 8 K/9. Which isn’t terrible. He’s just overpriced for a road matchup against a dangerous OAK team. I spent a long time debating whether to put him as a GPP play or make a stack recommendation out of Oakland that I didn’t really like. Then I realized I can just not play anyone from here, minus a one off or two...


Batters

Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)


Pirates vs Miles Mikolas (RHP, STL) - On Opening Day, I recommended that you stack against Mikolas, even though it wouldn’t be popular to do so. I talked about how his success comes from control and some luck and, if he loses a little of either of that, he could have a terrible day. I mean, the dude only walked 25 people last season unintentionally. That’s insane. Well he’s already up to 1, on top of the 5 ER he gave up in 5 IP. Like I said, if he isn’t immaculate in his control, he is going to get hammered. So why not take the bet that someone won’t be perfect, when everyone else would be on him. Especially when people talk about his success and the story and the narrative and the control and ignore the fact he also gave up the most hits in the majors. I mean, come on. Learn to recognize a mirage quickly, folks, or prepare to get lost in the desert.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 3

Preferred Stack: Full - LHB preferred/Reverse Splits RHB

Preferred Players: The following batters are LHB/SH or Reverse Splits RHB - Frazier (2B - 3900), Dickerson (OF - 4300), Bell (1B - 3900), Melky (OF - 3800), Kang (3B/SS - 4200), Marte (OF - 4700), Gonzalez (SS - 3700)


Braves vs Jon Lester (LHP, CHC) - Another really sneaky stack here that I know that people won’t be on, cause they overrate Jon Lester and may not realize how annoying the Braves lineup is. In 2017, people worried about Lester and his 4.33 ERA. But, much like a lot of pitchers, this was somewhat bad luck as his FIP was 4.10. Not great, but still lower than his ERA. He also had a 9.0 K/9, though you could see a lot of the other peripheral stats worsening. In 2018, even though his ERA was 3.32, like i said before, his FIP was more than a run higher- 4.39. That’s really bad. His WHIP was 1.310, which is bad. This is reflected in his 8.6 H/9 and his 3.2 BB/9, the highest it had been since 2011. The real concerning stat, though, is his K/9 dropped from 9.0 to 7.4. The lowest since he was 24 years old in 2008. The AL East in 2008 is a lot different than last year’s NL Central, though. When a pitcher is striking out less and walking more, we can see the writing on the wall. Especially when he is 35. He is someone we can play occasionally (some lineups are horrible against lefties, some are the Marlins). But the high walks and the low Ks is something that worries me. Oh. Also- Lester can’t throw to first base (or has a lot of trouble doing it). So you can also prioritize people who can steal a base against him. Last thing- Lester is a lefty. He gave up a .250 BA to righties last year and a .279 BA to Lefties. He gave up a .696 OPS to Righties and a .878 OPS to Lefties. This is pretty extreme reverse splits and you need to focus on taking lefties against Lester when everyone else doesn’t realize this fact.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 3

Preferred Stack: Full - LHB preferred

Preferred Players: Freeman (1B - 4600), Inciarte (OF - 3900), Markakis (OF - 3700), Acuna (OF - 4800), Donaldson (3B - 4600), Albies (2B/SS - 4300), McCann (C - 3700)


Cubs vs Teheran (RHP, @ATL) - Much like Jon Lester, Teheran can’t get LHB out. While that mattered less on Opening Day against a predominantly RH Phillies lineup, it WILL matter a lot when the Cubs come to town. Teheran is an ace. But he’s like a diva ace. He’s very temperamental. He’ll show up, but he doesn’t always show up. And, with the built-in problems he has against LHB, I will have to take the chance of stacking here, though, at 7000, he is absolutely a GPP play given his upside. Just don’t expect anything out of him. And do not waste a single lineup spot on a -EV chance.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 9

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB greatly preferred

Preferred Players: Rizzo (1B - 4900), Zobrist (2B/OF - 3900), Schwarber (OF - 4600), Bryant (3B/OF - 4700), Baez (SS - 5300)


Astros vs Mike Minor (LHP, @TEX) - Oh boy. Not only do we get an Astros team that absolutely murders LHP, we get them against Mike Minor - someone who doesn’t strike anyone out and gives up more homers than the Fox Outlet during a clearance sale. This is probably going to be the chalkiest stack of the night. And it should be.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down - Springer (OF - 4900), Altuve (2B - 5200), Bregman (3B/SS - 5400), Brantley (OF - 4300), Correa (SS - 4800), etc...


Red Sox vs Marco Estrada (RHP, @OAK) - All these amazing road teams, guaranteed 9 times at bat, in great spots. It really is an embarrassment of riches for a 5 game slate. Estrada is a terrible pitcher. Sure he’ll have some great days. But the odds are thin one of those will come against this Red Sox team. I should also note, he is an extreme reverse splits pitcher, so stock up on RHB where everyone else will play the LHB. Also, and most importantly, Estrada gives up more homers than a Classics professor passing out her reading material for the semester.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full - RHB preferred

Preferred Players: Betts (OF - 5500), Martinez (OF - 5100), Bogaerts (SS - 4300), Vazquez (C - 3300), Nunez (2B/3B - 3800), Benintendi (OF - 4800), Devers (3B - 4100)


Dodgers vs Derek Holland (LHP, SF) - Another great offense going against a horrible pitcher. This time we get LAD vs Derek Holland, someone who is lucky to have a job. If this was a 24 team league, he would either be in AAA or retired. The Dodgers are dangerous against everyone, although more potent against RHP, which is a slight knock to them. Also, they are home where most of the other stacks are away, meaning we are going to miss out on a whole inning of AB from them, which could be a tiebreaker to consider. Still, they are going against Derek Holland who gives up more homers than Lieutenant Gigot (look it up).

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full - RHP preferred

Preferred Players: Hernandez (2B - 4200), Turner (3B - 4400), Pollock (OF - 4600), Freese (1B/3B - 3700), Seager (SS - 4400), Taylor (OF/SS - 4100), Barnes (C - 3900)


One-Off Batters

Kendrys Morales (1B - 3800), Grossman (OF - 3400), Profar (1B/2B - 3700) - While I wouldn’t take this as far as a 3 person stack, I wouldn’t mind playing 2 of these dudes tonight, especially Grossman at 3400 who should be batting leadoff. Eovaldi has a lot of trouble with LHB and these 3 are annoying enough that they can give him fits tonight. They are all also cheap as hell, which, honestly, we need desperately tonight given how expensive everything is.


HR CALL OF THE SLATE: George Springer

Alright everyone! That does it for an awesome day of MLB. Now for a giant NBA slate! I better get to work. It’s only 2am after all! I’ll eat and sleep when I’m dead. Or in a couple of weeks :D.

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