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Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings.
Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)
Mariners (Kikuchi, LHP) vs White Sox (Lopez, RHP) - 210pm - O/U 8, SEA -119
Partly Cloudy and Cool. Temps around 50 with light winds.
Dodgers (Maeda, RHP) vs Colorado (Anderson, LHP) - 410pm - O/U 10.5, LAD -126
COORS FIELD GAME Partly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 70. Winds light.
Padres (Margevicius, LHP) vs Cardinals (Flaherty, RHP) - 415pm - O/U - 7.5, STL -165
Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the mid-60s. Winds light.
Rays (Glasnow, RHP) vs Giants (Rodriguez, RHP) - 435pm - O/U - 7, TB -120
50% chance of rain at gametime. If there is a chance this game rains out, do not play a 2 game slate in MLB. It’s just paying a rake.
Reds (Gray, RHP) vs Pirates (Musgrove, RHP) - 705pm - O/U - 8, PIT -120
Overcast and Cool. Temps around 50. Winds blowing in lightly
Twins (Odorizzi, RHP) vs Phillies (Pivetta, RHP) - 705pm - O/U - 8, PHI -148
50% chance of rain through game into the night. Temps in the high 40s. Winds blowing across the field.
Blue Jays (Thornton, RHP) vs Indians (Bieber, RHP) - 710pm - O/U - 7 - CLE -153
Cloudy and cool. Temps around 50. Light winds.
Red Sox (Porcello, RHP) vs Diamondbacks (Godley, RHP) - 710pm - O/U - 9, BOS -128
Marlins (Lopez, RHP) vs Braves (Gausman, RHP) - 720pm - O/U - 7, ATL -154
Clear and Warm. Temps around 70. Winds light.
Cubs (Quintana, LHP) vs Brewers (Woodruff, RHP) - 810pm - O/U - 8.5, MIL -118
Athletics (Montas, RHP) vs Astros (McHugh, RHP) - 810pm - O/U - 8, HOU -159
Rangers (Lynn, RHP) vs Angels (Pena, RHP) - 1007pm - O/U - 8, LAA -126
Cloudy with temps around 60 and winds blowing out around 10mph.
A Quick Note
With a 13 game slate in the NBA tomorrow, I am going to have to cut some corners here. That means that, while I would normally do an analysis of every game (for the Showdown slate AND the 3 game slate, on top of this main slate), I am going to just stick to the Main Slate for now. I don’t think you understand how much it’s going to take to do 13 games this late in the season. It was bad enough the other day when it was 12. This is going to be 10x worse, like going from 8 to 9 on the richter scale. So anyway, while it isn’t going to be here today, know that, when NBA season is over, I will generally provide information for every game. That being said, let’s get to the Main Slate for tonight!
Shane Bieber (9300, RHP) vs TOR - Bieber is a fantastic young pitcher who should have gotten some votes for Rookie of the Year last year. In his 19 starts, he had a FIP of 3.23 with a 9.3 K/9. Those stats are fantastic. He gave up a few hits, but he managed to stay out of trouble by limiting walks and getting enough Ks that a few hits didn’t matter. He also doesn't give up too many HR. Also, he’s going against a struggling Blue Jays O that has made a couple of the worst pitchers in the game look like Cy Young candidates in the last week. One thing to note - he does show extreme reverse splits, so you can take a LHB against him. This would be good for Smoak, but he may not be able to even play after being scratched with a neck injury yesterday. That leaves very little to get in his way. I am going to have a really, really hard time not playing both SPs in this game against each other on DK tonight.
Collin McHugh (9500, RHP) vs OAK - Collin McHugh spent most of last season in the bullpen. As such, it’s a bit unfair to compare last season to starting, since he would have only been put in advantageous situations. He did have a 2.72 FIP and 0.912 WHIP though, showing you that, when everything goes right, he can be dominant, even on the wrong side of 30. He also had a fantastic K/9 of 11.7 so we are going to be able to use him a whole lot. He continued that in his first start of the season against the Rays, going 5 innings and striking out 9. He pitched so well his price went from 7300 to 9500. He is also someone who has become dominant against RHB, which the A’s are absolutely full of. He was also pretty damn good against LHB, but significantly worse than the .416 OPS he allowed to RHB last season.
Rick Porcello (9100, RHP) at ARI - Porcello is a starter that may be overrated, but is still a very good pitcher. He will get you a FIP on the year around 4 with a good WHIP and a K/9 of around 9. He gives up too many HRs and sometimes that makes him unplayable. But, against this ARI lineup, I think he looks great to rack up the Ks. Most of the hitters are either weak LHB or righties with extreme splits. There are some places he’s going to have to do some work, but, for the most part, this is going to be great. Plus, how nice will it be for him to get a Pitcher’s Spot instead of a DH?
Trent Thornton (6200, RHP) at CLE - All things considered, the way the Indians have looked lately, this might be my favorite pitcher. Last article, I talked about his K potential and how he would be a really sneaky and unowned GPP play against a poor Tigers offense. He went 5 IP with 8 Ks, giving up 2 hits and that’s it. He crushed it. Now he’s in a great spot against a team that looks lost without Lindor. And I would bet no one is going to be on him. I mean, come on here. We have an incredible price, great talent, good upside, low ownership, and a great spot. What more do you want?
Kevin Gausman (9000, RHP) vs MIA - If you are Gausman, how happy are you right now? Everything went as planned - you had no setbacks. You only missed one start and you get to come off the IL against the Marlins. Oh boy, how lucky he must feel. He gets the free square today. He is a reverse splits pitcher, but, honestly, who on this Marlins team is going to give him that much of a problem? I will say this, though- as much as I like Gausman, and as much as I like the matchup for the kid, the price is too much for someone that Ks that few people. There are at least 5 plays on this slate I like better. At least. Still, it’s the Marlins.
Joe Musgrove (7600, RHP) vs CIN- Musgrove isn’t a pitcher that’s going to blow your pants off, but he is a good ML pitcher. He limits runs, limits hits and walks and, while he doesn’t strike out as much as an ace, he’s also not priced like one so I am ok with his lesser K rate. It’s still more than enough to warrant this price, especially against a poorly performing Reds lineup. After his start was rained out last week, he showed you just why you can play him in GPP today - he got you 2 IP in a tune-up outing, getting 1 K, 4 grounders and 0 flyouts with 0 hits and 0 walks allowed. Now I don’t expect him to pitch a no-hitter, but I do like him as an unowned play that will keep the ball in the park, not walk people, not give up too many hits, and get enough points, safely enough and cheaply enough, that I can take some other really expensive pieces.
Jake Odorizzi (7100, RHP) at PHI - Odorizzi is someone who I would generally consider a GPP level pitcher. He’s good enough, and strikes out enough people, that we can use him (or at least take a chance using him) most of the time he pitches. Sometimes, he gets a horrific opponent and we can stack against him. Sometimes he gets a great opponent and we can confidently play him. I would put the Phillies somewhere in the middle there. They are a dangerous lineup, sure. You really can’t argue with that. But they also have a TON of strikeouts that someone like Odorizzi can take advantage of.
Nick Pivetta (7700, RHP) vs MIN - Nick Pivetta was, to me, the 2nd best Phillies starter going into this season. One poor start to start the year off aside, having watched a ton of Phillies last year, Pivetta was someone who impressed me. He always seemed to pitch better than the results he got, and the fact his ERA was 4.77 and his FIP was 3.80 should tell you all just how right that assessment was. He took major steps in his sophomore campaign, and I expect him to continue advancing now, His ERA fell from 6.02 to 4.77. FIP from 4.87 to 3.80. WHIP from 1.511 to 1.305. H/9 from 9.7 to 8.9. HR/9 from 1.7 to 1.3. BB/9 from 3.9 to 2.8. K/9 from 9.5 to 10.3. He gave up less XBH, less Line Drives. He just got better. Like with Odorizzi, this isn’t a lock when he pitches but, at this price with that high a K/9, he is certainly someone you can take a stab on. Plus, he is a reverse splits pitcher, and the Twins will only have 3 RHB in the lineup against him.
Pablo Lopez (6600, RHP) at ATL - If you want a real GPP play at a crazy low price that could really pay off, take a chance on Lopez here. Lopez got a cup of coffee last year, but not enough of a sample size for us to really judge how he is as a pitcher (especially considering he was 23). What we do know is that he was dominant in the minors, where he put up a 1.44 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and 66K in 62.1 IP. We also know that, in his first start, he looked more like the Lopez from his stint in the minors, putting up 7K with 3 ER, 5 hits, 0 BB. Good for 20.4 DKP. At 6600, I would lock that in all day. Granted, he is a matchup against a tough ATL team here, but that’s why this is a GPP play, isn’t it? If he pitches as well as his potential, he will help win you a lot of money at no ownership tonight.
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
Pirates vs Sonny Gray (RHP, CIN) - Last time Sonny Gray pitched, he did so against the Pirates. I told you to stack against him because he is absolutely awful. I talked about how the Pirates offense doesn’t strike out a lot as it is, so they are going to be particularly bad for Sonny Gray. I told you they were going to just put the ball in play and get a bunch of walks and hits until they chase Gray. Well, Sonny Gray got you 2.2 IP and gave up 5 hits and 4 BB with 0 Ks. I stacked the Pirates that day and made some cash. I hope you did the same. I also hope you will learn the lesson from last time and do the same today. Also, like I said last time, prioritize RHB to separate yourself since Gray shows reverse splits. Also, I have to note that the prices for the Pirates are insanely low.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 4
Preferred Stack: Full - RHP preferred
Preferred Players: Frazier (2B - 3800), Marte (OF - 4200), Cervelli (C - 3600), Bell (1B - 3800), Kang (SS/3B - 3900), Erik Gonzalez (SS - 3500), Melky (OF - 3600), anyone else you want.
Red Sox vs Zack Godley (RHP, @ARI) - I feel bad for Zack Godley. He’s a talented kid who just can’t find the plate. Also, he has to start this year off with starts against the Dodgers and Red Sox which must really suck. Godley is someone we are going to use from time to time. But not today, and not against Boston
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full
**Preferred Players: Anyone/Everyone. Start at the top and work your way down. **
Brewers vs Jose Quintana (LHP, CHC) - Quintana is a good pitcher. He’s not great. There’s going to be plenty of times we use him this year. I would say that, given the quality of most of the teams he will face, we will target him a majority of the time he starts. But I am concerned about a couple of things. First, in 2018, his first full year in the NL, Quintana had the highest FIP, one of the highest WHIPs, the highest BB/9, and the highest HR/9 of his career. Sure he had a great first appearance, but it was in mop up duty for 4 innings out of the bullpen. He was there to eat innings and get work in since they were going to skip his spot in the rotation. Second, the Brewers are fucking awesome. Most of the hitters they have are good for punishing LHP, and they should be able to make this a tough go for Quintana.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6
Chalk Level (1-10): 3
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini
Preferred Players: Cain (OF - 4000), Yelich (OF - 5300), Braun (OF - 4200), Aguilar (1B - 4400), Grandal (C - 4100)
Astros vs Frankie Montas (RHP, OAK) - Montas is someone who was used in the bullpen for a couple seasons before getting the chance to start last year. As such, he was only put into advantageous situations and removed when in trouble. He wouldn’t be able to show us who he is. Last year he got 11 starts and, even though his FIP was a decent 3.90, that was the end of decent. His WHIP was 1.462. He gave up 10.2 H/9 with 2.9 BB/9. And we can’t use him as a pitcher in DFS cause his K/9 was only 6.0. He has been decent against RHB and horrific against LHB in his career, which explains why, when he wasn’t just used to get RHB out, all of his stats got worse. So, long story short, stack against him and prioritize LHB.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 9
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB Prefered
Preferred Players: Brantley (OF - 4200), Reddick (OF - 4100), Altuve (2B - 4600), then start from the top and work down.
Angels vs Lance Lynn (RHP, TEX) - Lance Lynn had a really weird last season. I don’t know if i’ve ever seen someone with a FIP of 3.84 and a WHIP of 1.526. He gave up a ton of hits and walks, but it managed not to cost him, somehow. And that’s with a BABIP .030 over his career average. I don’t know how he did it, but I don’t expect it to happen again. In fact, this spring, he has given up an ERA of 4.86 with a WHIP of 0.960, which is the exact opposite. In his first start against the Cubs, he went 5.2 IP, giving up 10 hits and 7 ER. Yikes. He also can not get LHB out, so my main priority is playing every LHB I can against him.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 6
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB preferred
Preferred Players: Bour (1B - 4100), La Stella (2B - 3300), Goodwin (OF - 3800), Calhoun (OF - 3900), Trout (OF - 5600)
Rangers vs Felix Pena (RHB, @LAA) - Pena is a mediocre RHP that has a huge problem getting LHB out. He gives up a bunch of hits and HRs and walks. Also, like I said before, he has a huge problem getting LHB out. I don’t know if you’ve looked at this Rangers lineup, but it doesn’t look good for Pena today.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 3
Preferred Stack: Full - LHB Preferred
Preferred Players: Choo (OF - 3900), Odor (2B - 4300), Mazara (OF - 4000), Gallo (OF - 4700), Asdrubal (3B - 4000), Guzman (1B - 3700)
Bryce Harper (OF - 5500) and Rhys Hoskins (1B - 4600) - I expect Harper to be popular because, honestly, he generally is whenever he plays a RHP. That doesn’t mean he is a bad play, though. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he connected on one and took Odorizzi deep. He’s certainly in a good enough park now to do that more frequently than when he was with WAS. The sneaky play I like to take is Hoskins, especially when going against a homer prone righty. Hoskins has shown extreme reverse splits so far in his career. Odorizzi has shown reverse splits in his career. And most people don’t pay attention to that and will only play him against LHP. This is a jackpot matchup for him. It’s shrewd to take him on days like today when the field is off him (except in stacks).
Nelson Cruz (OF - 4300) - When Cruz is this cheap, in a tiny little ballpark, against a reverse splits pitcher that is prone to HRs, you know you have to give him some consideration. He has the talent to be priced over 5k so, in this situation, you have to take advantage of everything we’ve been given here.
David Peralta (OF - 4200) - Peralta is really the main stumbling block Porcello will see in the DBacks lineup. He is a LHB with extreme splits, meaning he is not so good against LHP but really beats up on RHP, like Porcello. Especially one that is prone to HRs. I should also note that, so far this year, Peralta has played 7 games. In those 7 games he has: 5, 13, 16, 10, 19, 13, and 12 DKP. That’s right. He only has 1 game not in double digits. I bet, like you before you read that, most people had no idea he’s been playing so well. And so, unless you read this article, you probably won’t be on Peralta today. You should be, though.
Rowdy Tellez (1B - 4100) - Tellez is a power hitter than can really punish RHP. When he’s going against one like Bieber with such stark splits, when no one will be on him, I would love to take a chance on some Tellez as a one-off today. This is strictly a GPP play though. He’s not cheap enough to love, but cheap enough you can’t ignore
HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Justin Bour
Good luck everyone!