Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
***My Lineup-*** -
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
Schroder | 4700 | 27.25 | 5.8x | 56.2%| 45.7%| 10.5!!!!
Green | 3300 | 10.25 | 3.1x | 34.7%| 22.4%| 12.3!!!!
Simmons | 8400 | 54.25 | 6.5x | 19.9%| 17.2%| 2.7
Love | 6900 | 43.5 | 6.3x | 25.7%| 35.8%| 10.1!!!!
Bam | 4000 | 26.75 | 6.7x | 56.8%| 63.5%| 6.7
Russ | 11100 | 60.25 | 5.4x | 66%| 63.5%| 3.5
Royce | 3400 | 16 | 4.7x | 10.2%| 24.7%| 14.5!!!!
Donovan | 8000 | 41.5 | 5.2x | 15.7%| 26.4%| 10.7!!!
**Total** | 49800 | 279.75 | 5.617x| | |
***Best Possible Lineup-*** - [Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher](https://www.fantasycruncher.com/lineup-rewind/draftkings/NBA/), I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.
Name | Price | DKP
Cory Joseph | 3600 | 39.25
Bojan | 5400 | 53.25
Aaron Gordon | 6400 | 48.25
Cedi | 4900 | 43.75
KAT | 10500 | 70.25
Harden | 11000 | 95.25
Korver | 3200 | 32.75
Barton | 5000 | 49.25
**Total** | 50000 | 432
Analysis-
In the Summer of 2007, in between her 2nd and 3rd year of Veterinary School, my wife, who I have described accurately as one of the best people I have ever met, decided to spend a week of her rare vacation time volunteering. She was part of an organization that would go to incredibly rural areas- we are talking about places in this country that don’t have a Vet within a 2 hour drive- and provide free care to anyone that came to the clinic. She described the lines as “out the door the entire week.” And they stayed, every day, as long as they could to care for these animals, and their people, as well as they could. Free.
On day 7, the day she was supposed to come home, I get a call from my then-fiancee, “Bathrobe. Don’t be mad.”
“Oh god,” my mind emptied, as one’s mind will whenever some says that (or ‘we need to talk’)
“You’re gonna be mad.”
“Well, I don’t know if I’ll be mad until you tell me why you think I’ll be mad.”
“Ok. But you have to promise not to be mad.”
That went on for a few minutes until I got it out of her. A puppy, not more than a couple months old, had been brought into the clinic that morning. She didn’t have an owner. No tags. Nothing. A driver found her on the side of the road. She had been hit by a car and one of her legs had been shattered. She was down to skin and bones. She had been laying there for days, apparently, unable to move or eat. Hit by someone and left for dead. While this Good Samaritan brought the dog to the clinic, he had no desire to keep her. And this wasn’t an adoption clinic. That meant there was only one solution to problem like this, and my wife wouldn’t stand for it.
“I couldn’t let them do that to her,” she told me, nearly in tears. “When they brought her in, even though she was hurt, even though she hadn’t eaten, she just couldn’t stop smiling at me. She was so sweet, even in that pain. Even on her deathbed. I couldn’t let her life end like that.”
“So, wait. What are you saying?”
“Well, I had no choice. I told them I’d take her. So I’m going to bring her home.”
“Sweetie… we only have a small apartment and a dog and two cats already. Plus I work 12 hours a day and you’re gone 16 hours a day for vet school…”
“I know, I know. What I want to do is take her back home, and then get her surgery to fix her leg. I can use some of the stipend I get to pay for the surgery. Then we will foster her until she is better and then adopt her out.”
“Ok, you got it. I can’t believe you thought I’d be mad at you for that.”
So the dog flew halfway across the country, carried by my wife the whole way. She got the surgery. And my wife brought her home. And, as you could probably guess, I fell in love immediately. She was a little tiny German Shepherd mutt, almost fully black with some white on her underbelly and paws. The happiest smile and shiniest eyes you have ever seen in a dog.
“Well,” I told my wife upon meeting the puppy, “I guess we have 2 dogs now.”
The surgeon at the hospital said that the odds were poor that she would ever be able to use that leg. It was really badly damaged, they said, but my wife had gotten her there when she was young enough that they tried to make it as normal a leg as possible. There was a possibility she would be able to walk like normal, but it was slim. We would have to do manual exercises with her multiple times a day. We would have her give us her paw, like she would shake, and we would have to manually move it back-and-forth, up-and-down, to-and-fro to try to get it as strong as possible. We spent hours upon hours of our time taking care of that little fuzzball, moving her little paw every day hoping the hope that she would be a normal, happy dog
You bet your sweet ass it worked. Once she got the bandages and everything off, she ran around our apartment like she was on fire. Over and over and over and over again. For an hour at a time. I did my best to take her outside and let her run to her heart’s content but, in the middle of a big city, room was sparse. So we made due and, honestly, I don’t think she could have been happier.
I’m a bit of a science nerd, truth be told. The two pets my wife and I had gotten together, a dog and a cat, were named Einstein and Newton. I told her I wanted to name all the pets after physicists, but any sort of scientist would do. So what is a good name we could get from a female physicist? My wife, at U Penn Vet School, wanted it to be a name that also reflected Philadelphia, too. That seemed like a pretty tall order. We thought and thought. Looked it up. Asked coworkers and friends. We came up with a list, but nothing seemed to fit her. One day, when brainstorming, I decided to make a joke-
“I have an idea. Why not just call her ‘Benjamin Franklin, the Girl Dog.’ We can just call her Frankie or Frankie Lynn for short.”
The look on my wife’s face told me that, not only did she not think this was a joke at all, but that I had accidentally struck gold.
And so Frankie it was. And our family was complete. For a few years anyway.
My favorite memory of Frankie came during her first winter. As I said earlier, Frankie was a hearty, furry, Minnesota dog. She was born in the snow, the rest of us just learned to live with it. So when that first snow fell, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a living creature as happy in my entire life.
Whenever I need to be happy, I just watch that, see Frankie in her pure bliss, bouncing around like a bunny. And everything in my life gets a litter better.
A few weeks ago, Frankie stopped finishing her meals. My wife took her in, did tests, scans, and everything. She was still happy as can be, still running around like a puppy, even though she will be 12 this summer. Well, would have been. Unsurprisingly, she has a mass inside her and her organs are starting to shut down. The nausea she was getting from it has gone up as the days have gone by. Where she used to devour anything we put in front of her, now her appetite is reserved for when she camps in front of the food closet, psychically asking me for some more jerky treats. She won’t eat dry food, canned food, or even peanut butter.
Her favorite moment of any day was when my wife, her personal savior, came home. I don’t know what dogs understand but, I swear to god, this dog knew that my wife saved her life several times over and she never, ever stopped showing my wife her unlimited love and gratitude. Over the last couple days, the unbridled tail wagging and jumping has turned into a brief fit of happiness followed by her wanting to lay down.
As much as we both want to keep her around forever, it’s starting to get to the point where it’s going to be cruel for us to do so. Her pain is getting worse, her energy keeps going down, and my heart keeps breaking.
Thank you, Frankie. I know you were “just a dog” to some people, but you were the first dog that really loved me. You were the first dog that made my life better. The first dog that I missed when I wasn’t around. The first dog that I know missed me too. When my dad and uncle and grandma died, you were there to nudge your head into my lap, between the tears, with that little smile of yours. You always made everything ok with that. When Newton, the greatest living creature I have ever known, died at the age of 9, you were the pet I went to. You were the one that helped me think it was going to be ok. I don’t know who I’m going to go to now.
I will miss you every day of my life, Frankie. Every single day. You were truly special. Truly a gift. I don’t know why you were brought into the clinic that day. I don’t know what possessed my wife to fly you home and pay for your surgery out of our own pocket. I don’t know much, Frankie, but I know that, though we may have saved your life, every single day you were in mine, you made it better.
I love you Frankie.
I love you. And i’ll miss you.
I played people last night. I don’t even care why anymore. PG was out. Everyone was out. I just did the best I could with the information I had. Apparently, so did everyone else and I forgot to check ownership projections, cause this may have been the chalkiest lineup I’ve ever put together. Oh well. Onto tomorrow.
The Daily Slate:
For the rest of this week, I want to give people a chance to see this. After that, I will just make it a mention in the template intro paragraph. Before I get into the analysis of today’s slate, I want to touch on the new chat app experiment I am doing. I started it early yesterday morning, hoping to get 100 people within the first month. We had 100 people within the first day. We were discussing injuries, talking lineups, and doing analysis in real time. I was able to answer questions immediately. It was a completely new experience, and I think it was an overwhelming success. In case you missed the article yesterday, I will repost what I wrote then, so that you can avail yourself of it. If you are interested, please send me a DM on reddit here and I will send you the invite link.
There is another major change- a significant addition that should help you out, and help increase the amount of communication I can engage in (even more than here or twitter). Ever since someone told me about Slack a month or so ago, I have been looking into a chat app to provide more of a real-time ability to talk to people about the slate. Or discuss breaking news. Or answer questions if I can. I was going to do Slack, but it was too much of a clusterfuck for me. I can understand why it’s popular, but it’s just not as easy to manage as I want something like this to be. While I was looking around, a few of the people that helped start FanDuel got a hold of me and wanted me to try a new chat app called Flick. I downloaded it and gave it a go and I really like it (or I would either use something else, or just not do this yet). I will be able to chat in real time. I will be able to make new topics for everything and anything I want. So I can make a new chat every day for every slate. For MLB and NBA. I can regulate it so it’s invite only, so we won’t be harassed by trolls and people trying to give us bad information. All of this was very important to me, since I really believe in what I am doing and don’t want to hurt its quality in any way. Expanding to something I can’t control, where harrassment is possible and it’s too easy to lose things, just wasn’t going to work for me. So starting tomorrow, I am going to be crossposting everything I do here into Flick, in a new topic, where I can answer questions or just chat about various process issues. It will be faster and easier than messaging me here or on twitter (though, as an older dude, I may not be as good at it as I should be). So, if you are interested, I would download the Flick App and send me a DM here or on twitter and I will send you the invite link. I am excited to give this a try and I hope it helps all of you as much as I think it will.
There is no limit to the amount of people invited. The only rule is treat everyone with love and respect. We are all there to help each other. End of discussion. If you can handle that, just ask for an invite and you’re in! Now to the slate at hand.
Before I dig into specifics, I want to point out that there are 7 games tomorrow and the lowest O/U is 227.5. This may be the greatest slate we have all ever seen.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Lauri - While I also like LaVine (7700) here, give me Lauri (8600) today. I know the price is higher, but I also know that the Hawks give up the most points to PFs than anyone in the NBA and that John Collins is the worst PF defender in the NBA. The Bulls are in a fantastic pace up spot here. There is no reason not to go hard on both of these guys, since that is where a large majority of the usage and production is going to come from. And it’s a game against the Hawks, who don’t play D, that is supposed to stay close. My mouth is watering just thinking about it.
Trae - Chicago is a major pace down spot for the Hawks, but nothing has been able to stop Trae Young (8100) lately. If you have been reading my articles, you know how high I have been on him for weeks now. And I have been proven right every single time. Against the defenses of Tyus Young and CP3, both of whom are among the leaders in DRPM for PGs, Young just played 43 and 41 minutes and dropped 62 DKP and 51.25 DKP. You think Kris Dunn is going to stop him? Ed Lover called. He said, “C’mon, Son!”
Zeller and Kemba - First up, Charlotte is 26th in pace and BK is 4th, meaning this is a GREAT pace up spot for both these players. Second, D Lo is a bad defender, Dinwiddie is coming back tonight and he’s bottom 5 in DRPM, and the Nets are 2nd worst against Centers in the NBA. All of these things, and the fact this is a 228 total with a close spread, leads me to loving both Kemba (8200) and Zeller (5800) today. Both are going to get major minutes in what is going to be a shootout. The crazy thing is the 228 total here is the 2nd lowest on the slate. But, regardless, I absolutely love both these plays today. They should both get you 6x easily.
Pelicans - If Booker is out, I am worried this game doesn’t stay close. Then again, it’s the Pelicans playing AD for 20 minutes, so who the hell knows. What I DO know is that Randle (8000) is going to get like 40 min and 50 DKP now, every game, if he can stay out of foul trouble. I know Elf (5600) should be 1000 more for the minutes and production he has been getting. He should be even more than 1000 more in THIS matchup against the Suns who are awful against PG. But as bad as the Suns are against PG, they are the worst in the NBA against SG. That means Jrue (7900), who was supposed to be limited to 28-30 minutes a game and has played 36, 34, and 33 in his last 3, scoring 43.25, 44.25, and 49.25 DKP, is vastly underpriced and will be underowned based on a lie and bad information. One note- Tim Frazier has been cut. So if you want to take a chance on Frank Jackson (3100) getting all the backup run, be my guest. They signed someone to a 2 year contract and he may not be available tomorrow. I will update the situation when I know more.
Clippers vs Kings - The last 2 games of the night are going to be so fucking good. This one sports an incredible 240 total with a spread of only SAC -2.5. I have to start out by letting you know that Bagley is going to miss this game. This makes Sacramento a lot more appealing to play, as well. The first thing I will call attention to are the deficiencies we can attack- the Clippers are weakest against Centers, PFs and PGs. That means I will be a big fan of Fox (7200) at his rapidly falling price, Barnes (5100), who should get extra run at PF with Bagley out, and WCS (4500) who should see more than 30 minutes again, against this Clippers team. He could put you up 10x tonight at that price. I mean, truly just an insane price for him in this matchup with no Bagley. On the Clippers side, we can attack the Kings basically anywhere we want. Meaning we should just default to the players that make the biggest splash anyway. So, LouWill (7100), Montrezl (6400), and Gallo (6100) would be the overwhelming best plays, with Montrezl again leading the pack for me. PatBev (4500) is also putting up 40 DKP games like nobody’s business, so he would be one of the most important punts to get in there today. Especially for this matchup. I would also say I like JaMychal Green (3700) a lot at that price, for the backup minutes he’s been getting. Especially in this matchup against the horrid D of the Kings backup players. Last thing to point out, Harry Giles (3100) should be priced 4k at least every single game. Even with WCS playing, he is getting minutes. He may be one of the primary beneficiaries of Bagley’s absence. I don’t know if he’ll be chalk after his 30 DKP performance last game but, if he isn’t lock him the fuck in!!! Cause my god. He can win you a GPP tomorrow at that price.
Bucks vs Lakers - I am shocked that this Bucks team, that gives up the 22nd least DKPPG, is projected to be in a 236.5 point game and only be 4.5 point favorites. I know the Lakers have LeBron, but they have also been fucking terrible lately. And I don’t know why that’s suddenly going to change against the best defense in the NBA. So, what can we attack? First, LAL is 2nd worst in the NBA against PG and 2nd worst against C. So Bledsoe (6700), fresh off an awesome triple double, and BroLo (5000), fresh off embarrassing his brother, are in fantastic spots again today. I am a big, big fan of both. Additionally, big shocker, you can play Giannis (11600), even though he will be guarded by LeBron. I mean, as fast as the Bucks play, the Lakers are even faster. And they give up the 2nd most DKPPG. So it’s just one of the best spots they could be in, especially if this stays close. With the season winding down, and the games becoming more important, they have started letting Giannis get to 37 and 38 minutes to close games out. We will need that tomorrow for him to help get to value. On the Lakers side, I want two things- LeBron (11400) and whoever is going to shoot the most 3s (the Bucks are 2nd worst in the NBA at giving up 3s), which is gonna be LeBron again, with Kuzma (6300) and Bullock (4700) getting a ton up too. All 3 of those dudes are awesome, awesome plays today. If Rondo (5000) gets another start, I think we can assume he plays 38 minutes again, at which point we have to play him. I mean, it sucks this game goes off at 1030 because we are going to need to know about their lineup as early as possible, and I fear that just won’t happen. Stephenson is out for LAL as well, solidifying the minutes Bullock will get and giving a few minutes to KCP (3000), who loves to shoot 3s himself, and Hart (3000), neither of who can be trusted, even at minimum price.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Brooklyn Nets - Ok, so, let me start this off by saying that, even though this is a major pace down spot for BK, I still love them today. What we need to be careful of is the return of Dinwiddie (5900). Dinwiddie is returning from a thumb injury so, much like other people who have returned from upper body, hand-based injuries, he should be good to go. Even with a bum thumb, you can still keep in game shape, just not handle a ball. So, with Dinwiddie back, what is going to happen? I tell you what, if the beginning of the year is any indication, we have no idea if D Lo (8500) or Dinwiddie are going to get the shots, get hot, get run, or close the game. The reason D Lo was able to go on this tear in the first place was because Dinwiddie and LeVert were out. Now, with both back, I don’t see how you can pay for anyone until we know how this all plays out (or if the coach gives us more news about it after shootaround in the morning). That being said, if Dinwiddie isn’t limited by minutes, I am all over him today. I imagine I will be alone there, though.
Blazers vs Raptors - While this game has a healthy 227.5 total with a TOR -5 spread, it is also one of the worst games on the slate for a very important reason- 7 of the 10 starters are ranked in the top 10 in DRPM for their position, and both defenses are above average against every single position. On top of that, the other day I pointed out how a symbol of how strong the Bucks were is shown by the fact they are a team in the top 5 in pace, but were near the bottom of DKPPG. The same thing, to a lesser degree, is true with both of these teams. The Blazers are 16th in pace but give up the 27th most DKPPG. The Raptors are 15th in pace but give up the 25th most DKPPG. Listen, I know Kawhi (8800) is horribly underpriced and that his form lately will reduce his ownership. And listen, I know that, with Kanter out, it’s possible Nurkic (7300) sees extra run. And if he sees extra run, he’s one of the best single plays on the slate. But Lowry and Green are both spectacular defenders, meaning Lillard and CJ are just priced too high. Kawhi dominates usage, so I don’t want to go to Lowry or Green. I expect Gasol (5200) to start in this matchup with Nurkic, meaning he will probably be the one to get 28 minutes. Which also means you can totally play him at that price, but it’s still risky. It also removes consideration for Ibaka. Siakam (7000) will be matched against Aminu, who is top 10. Unlike others, he should be guaranteed 35 or so minutes if this game stays close, meaning he would be a sneaky play not many will be on. Also, Harkless (3800) should also draw the start. While he will probably be defended by Kawhi, he also only 3800. If he gets 30 minutes, he should be able to pay that off. Though, again, I will be careful.
Wizards vs Celtics - The only game on the slate with the potential for a blowout, according to Vegas. Again, we need to be careful of that. In that we should be cognizant of the risk, especially if, like me, you only play one lineup. Given the fact that Smart and Kyrie are fantastic defenders, it makes me think this won’t be a game that Beal (8700) sees success. If he doesn’t find success, I don’t see how this game stays close. Over the last month, Boston has been more attackable by forwards than anything else so, if you want to go there, I would give serious, serious consideration to Ariza (5800) (who is still being run into the ground and just got 51 DKP), Parker (4700), who should really eat against the backups, and whichever Center DOESN’T start. Meaning if Portis (6000) starts, I want Bryant (4400) and vice versa. Boston, on the other hand, can do whatever it wants. It’s a huge pace up spot, Washington gives up the 4th most DKPPG, they are worst in the NBA against PFs and also terrible against PGs and Cs. So fire up Kyrie (8900) as much as you can, as well as Morris (4600), who no one is ever on, and Horford (6400). With Baynes out and Theis doubtful, we could also see Morris get some extra run at the 5. Alternately, and you may think I’m crazy here, but if they let Morris play the 4 and let Williams (3000)* play backup C, he will also get the blowout run. Meaning he would be one of my favorite punts on the whole day.
Situations to monitor:
Booker QUESTIONABLE - This game already has a 237.5 total with a spread of NO -4. So I would imagine that, if Booker was going to miss, Vegas would either not have a total yet, or it would be much, much worse for Phoenix. That being said, Booker is questionable with a toe sprain. If he plays, without limits, Booker (8300) is a fantastic play, as #8 in the NBA in usage against a team that’s not really trying to win. If he is forced to miss, I will be all over both Oubre (6200) and Tyler Johnson (5000). They are both going to get a majority of the usage with Booker out, and both should crush those prices. I mean, NO has been worst in the NBA against SF over the last month, anyway, so, regardless, you have to consider Oubre. Ditto Jackson (5000) who saw his price fall too much for his talent and ceiling. NO is also worst in the NBA against Centers, meaning that we are going to have one of the rare days that Ayton (6900) is a fantastic play. He sees a usage bump without Booker, as well, so fire him up regardless, but moreso if Booker misses.
Thank you all for indulging me, again, in a personal story. And thank you for letting me share my grief and sadness with you all. I’m sure we have all been where I am today, and where I have been too many times, on the brink of losing a pet you love with all your heart. I hope you can find some joy in the video of my little bunny dog like I will in the next few weeks. Give your pup and extra treat for me today. Let them know how much you love THEM too.