bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for January 10th and Review of January 9th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you like this information, I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS.
***Yesterday In Review:***
It’s good to be back. The pain is still pretty bad, but the stomach stuff is all done. I am very grateful for all the kind words and well-wishes. It’s good to be back. Now let’s get down to it again.
**Lineup-**
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
---|---|----|----|----|----|----
Barea |4300 | 12.5 | 2.9x | 2.5% | 7%| 4.5
Harden | 12200 | 70.75 | 5.8x | 40% | 43.3%| 3.3
Oubre | 3800 | 21.25 | 5.6x| 30% | 34.8%| 4.8
Sabonis | 7100 | 35.75 | 5x | 15%| 22.7% | 7.7
Drummond | 8600 | | x| 12.5%| 19.1%| 6.6
Donovan | 7300 | 51.5 | 7.1x| 25%| 17.6% | 7.4
Holmes | 3400 | 37 | 10.9x | 7.5%| 5.1% | 2.4
Zizic | 3100 | 20 | 6.5x| 0% | 1.9% | 1.9
**Total** | 49800 | | x| | |
Entry Fees: 24.19
**Analysis-**
So I didn’t get to do all of the research I would normally do, on account of everything. I made some decisions and let’s see how it winds up playing out. The first person I locked in was Drummond at that low price against the D of McGee. I made the next choice to get Harden in since I thought there was enough value to warrant getting him in there. I also wanted to get Sabonis in, in what I thought would be a close game, at what I also thought was too cheap a price (and he still just about got 5x even though it blew out early). With Nance out and Tristan Questionable with injury, I wanted to get Zizic in there. Especially with Frye starting, they had no one else to get those minutes. This let me get Barea as a backup for DSJ being out, who I was hoping would get some extra run and good production. I also wanted to pivot off of Melton who had gotten to over 40% projected ownership. With 40+% ownership also projected on Neto, I realized I could get Donovan and still fit Oubre and Rishaun Holmes in at bargain prices without Booker (whether or not they were blown out).
Sorry this isn’t as detailed as usual, but it was kind of a “getting back to normal” type of day. Let’s do the work for today’s slate now!
***The Daily Slate:***
***Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day***
Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. [**If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here**](https://www.reddit.com/r/dfsports/comments/a9ckrh/bathrobedfs_good_chalkbad_chalk_and/)
The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
**Jokic** - I tried to figure out a myriad reasons why I should put someone else in this spot besides **Jokic (10500)** today, but I just couldn’t. Let’s be honest, there are a ton of great players in some great spots tonight, but I don’t think anyone is in as good a spot as Jokic, as I will explain now (and through the course of this article). First, one of the best places to attack the Clippers is at C. And they are just not equipped to handle the unique talent Jokic brings to the game. If the let Gortat try to defend him, Jokic will be able to rack up points and rebounds. If they bring Boban in to try to stop Jokic from going inside, Jokic will force him to either come outside, or he will pull people inside and dish it for the assist. There’s simply no way that he can be handled. This game also has the highest total at 226 with a fine enough spread of DEN -5. Jokic leads the Nuggets in usage (coming in 24th in the NBA overall), though this does need to be tempered slightly based on the availability of Millsap and Harris, it still shouldn’t matter in this game environment. The Nuggets (27th in pace) will also be in one of the most pace up situations of any team on the (small) slate. I also want to point out that there are very few players who are a legit threat for the triple double bonus every game, and I would give Jokic the largest chance of doing that tonight, further expanding his MSC chances. As I have stated, I know there’s a lot of other folks to consider, so let’s get to talking about them.
***Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):***
****Gallinari*** - This is a game, as I said above, I really like to attack. I don’t think anyone is really priced too crazy for what I think will be a faster, high-scoring, close game. The one place no one ever seems to go, and where you should tomorrow, is to **Gallinari (7100)**. First, Gallo has a locked in floor and a high ceiling. This is one that will have a hard time not paying off. Second, Gallo plays PF which is, by far, the position against which the Nuggets are weakest. He’ll be paired up against Millsap who is still working his way back from an injury, and is 3 years older and 2 inches shorter than Gallo. Third, Gallo is a 3 point shooter, further putting strain on Millsap in this matchup and titling the edge to Gallo. Fourth, Gallo, like Mike Conley and other people, never gets ownership. He is a constant source of production, gets guaranteed run and minutes, and people are not going to be on him tonight.
****Jamal Murray*** - If attacking Gortat at C isn’t the best way to put up points against the Clippers, then it is by attacking SGA at PG. This means that this game should really run through the aforementioned Jokic and the anowmentioned **Murray (7300)**. This is a great play, regardless, but if Harris is out then Murray becomes an even stronger play. Murray is in play by himself, stacked with Jokic, or as a pivot if Jokic (or Fox) is chalk tonight. He’s not the best PG tonight, but he’s still a great, great play.
****PG13*** - This game features a very nice 223.5 total with an even nicer spread of OKC -1.5. As I often make note, if I was in a state that allowed sports gambling, I would take the under here. While the Thunder play at a fast speed, they are also a very good defensive team. The Spurs, over the last couple weeks, have been even slower and the #1 defensive team in the NBA. Price wise, there’s not much I like at the high end of this game: **Westbrook (11300)** is the most expensive player on the slate, and will be facing the really good D of White. Not that anyone can stop Russ, as I often point out, but it makes it more likely for Russ to look for other people when faced against a good, spry, young defender. **DeRozan (8300)** will face the #1 ranked D of PG13. **LMA (7200)** will either start at C, against the good D of Adams, or at PF against the good D of Jerami Grant. The one pricey play here, and the one I considered for MSC today if not for the defense and pace concerns, is **PG13 (9800)**. DK had finally correctly priced PG13 over 10k but managed to bring him back under again after a couple of sub-par performances. While I have learned the Mike Conley lesson and will be cautious, I still see him as one of the most consistent performers in the last month, with the 18th highest usage rate in the NBA, going against the SA’s weakest defensive position. If this game gets to the 220s and stays close, I would bet PG13 has more to do with it than anyone else on this team.
****Pistons/Kings*** - A great game for DFS purposes, there is a lot to love here. As with PG13, there were a couple people in this game that I was tempted to list as the MSC play today. The first of which was **Drummond (9100)**. On DK, if I can find enough value, I will try to get both Jokic and Drummond in today. Drummond is in the best matchup for Cs, playing against the 2nd fastest team in the NBA. There is no one they can bring in that can stop him, and no one they put on him will drag him from under the basket. If you like to bet on 20/20 games from Drummond, I would bet on one here, without question. The only dinks are the fact that the Pistons are playing on the 2nd night of a back-to-back, travelling from LA to SAC (you may think that’s close, but it’s a **more than 6 hour drive** if they drive it, which they shouldn’t be). Either way, that’s not negligible travel after playing last night on the West Coast. The second dink is **Griffin (9200)** has the 14th highest usage in the NBA and, while Bjelica is the only player in this entire game in the top 10 in DRPM at their position, he can’t stop Griffin who will have plenty of opportunity to put up all the stats he can handle. This just limits Drummond from the “zero-sum” perspective of DFS production. If Bagley plays, this would be a bonus to Blake, but Bagley will be limited enough it shouldn’t even be that much of a consideration (overthinking it). The final player I was considering for my MSC pick today was **Fox (7600)** who has the enviable job of playing PG against Reggie Jackson in a home matchup that’s projected to stay close, with a mid-220 total. That should be enough right there. So, again, if I can fit in Jokic, Drummond, and Fox I will start there for tomorrow (though I doubt pricing and injury news will allow it). Like Blake is the only Piston in the top 50 in usage, so too is Fox (42nd) the only King in the top 50. **Hield (6700)** and **Bogdanovic (6200)** are priced up enough that I won’t prioritize either of them, but if I happen to fall into them from a price perspective, I wouldn’t be upset. **WCS (6600)** has been getting spotty run (due to blowouts, mainly), and his price has come up almost 1000 in the last few games, but he is going to be desperately needed against the height of Detroit and he should be an incredibly successful, low owned play here today.
****Some Punts*** - There is not a lot of injury news for today. Of the 8 teams playing, the only 3 players that are listed as “out” at the time of writing are Noel, Shumpert, and Gay. So we really don’t have a lot here on the bottom end, except dart throws. We can look at a couple of things, though. With Noel going down in horrible fashion, the only other player they have on the Thunder right now to play backup C minutes is **Patterson (3200)**. This is a fine enough matchup for him that he should be able to have a really good game if everything goes well. **Beasley and Morris** if Harris is out, as I talk about in the last section. With Gay out, **Bertans (3700)** is, once again, in a great spot to produce and get a decent chunk of minutes against a 2nd unit (with Poeltl likely getting the start).
***Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):***
****Celtics vs. Heat*** - I will advise caution in this game for a few different reasons. First, it locks in at 7pm, 2 hours before the next game. If you avoid players from this game, you have 2 extra hours to deal with injury news and anything else that breaks. Second, 3 of the 4 games on this slate have totals in the 220s and this one is just 210. Third, of the 10 starters in this game, 8 of them are in the top-10 in their positions in DRPM. Here is the: Name (Rank-Position)- Smart (1-PG), Kyrie (6-PG), Brown (8-SG), Richardson (10-SG), Justise (7-SF), Tatum (10-SF), Whiteside (2-C), Horford (9-C). Fourth, the other 3 games feature a team that plays at a lightning speed, which will increase production for players in those games, whereas this is a game between the 19th and 21st ranked teams in pace. So a slower, heavily defense centered game that doesn’t see a price adjustment just leaves a lot to be desired. I will also say this: a lot of people may not want to rule out 1/4 of an entire slate, so if this game is low-scoring, and people don’t get to the 7-8x you need to win any tournament, you will have a great advantage over a large chunk of the field. With **Irving (9000)** priced high enough he will prevent you from getting other high priced players, I can’t go there against the D of Justise Winslow. **Whitside (6800)** and **Horford (6100)** both won’t get 30 minutes. **Tatum (6000)** is probably my favorite play of the bunch, assuming he gets the SF start, taking on the D of McGruder with a 4 inches of height on him. **Morris (5600)** seems like more of a cash play, since he hasn’t been getting the run or usage as of late, and I doubt that will change in a defensive, low scoring game. There isn’t a single player on the Heat that I have interest in, looking through everything, with the exception of **Waiters (3500)** if he plays, and gets minutes in the mid-20s again.
***Situations to monitor:***
****Harris*** - If Harris winds up missing this game for Denver, don’t be afraid to go for **Monte Morris (3800)** or **Beasley (3800)** who both underperformed last game, while **Craig (4000)** put up an unsustainable 16 rebounds. I would be much happier getting more of Jokic/Murray and getting on Morris and Beasley than chasing Craig and his points/ownership.
****Bagley*** - If he is out, Bjelica is an amazing play today. If he plays, neither is a good play today.
Alright! That was a quick one. I can’t complain. Thank you all again for the kind words and well wishes. I’m glad to be back at it here.