top of page
Search

"Breaking Down 5 NBA Player Props and Revealing 2 Winning Sports Betting Picks"

Before we dive in I want to go over some of the processes that I use to find player props. I LOVE GAME LOGS and that is my favorite place to start digging. But there are so many players where do we even start? Below I am going to answer that question for you. We pull regular season game logs but not playoff game logs so there requires some further digging if you are playing player props. You can use ESPN, CBS, etc. but I prefer basketball-reference when looking for playoff game logs and that is the website that I will use for the screen shots below.


HOW DO WE FIND PLAYER PROPS THAT WE LIKE?

I start with the NBA cheatsheet and I either sort by our custom projection value from high to low or the ALGO rating as that will show us the "hottest" players as of late. If a player is far exceeding his DFS price then he is usually far exceeding this player prop lines. The fantasy tracker on the far right in the above screen shot has color coded DFS values and the RED are games where they were 6x or more of their DFS salary so those are the players I'm going to start looking up and checking their lines. (TIP: DFS salaries are related to player projections and recent performance so if they are a great value in DFS they are usually sitting on good player prop lines.)


Now I'm going to pick out (5) players that I found worthy of looking at their alt lines for SGP's (same game parlays). I'll use the DK alt lines for reference and basketball-reference for the playoff game logs.







SPORTS BETTING THOUGHTS:

I can't put out some PLAYER PROPS and not discuss a betting pick that I like so here we go!

MILWAUKEE / INDY OVER 215

I could dive into all kinds of stats but I'm just going to ride this over. We missed it last time as they came out with 207 but the prior 3 games were 239, 239 and 233 points and it opened today at 215. You will also noticed the (2) HOME games for INDY were both 239 total points and they played with a fast pace so I like them to get back OVER that 215 number tonight!


NYK Team Total Points - OVER

The other one that jumps out is the NYK team total as they have put up 106, 97, 114, 104 and 111 in this series. The 98.5 is the standard line and while I don't mind that I'll likely mix in an ALT line between 88.5 to 94.5 depending on what the payout is on my card.


CORRELATION - One other thing that I did notice but likely won't be on my card is that if PHILLY wins this game it should go over 200.5 total points. In the two games PHILLY won they put up 112 and 125 points with a total score of 218 and 239. So if I was going to bet PHILLY I would parlay it with over 200.5 and shoot for the bigger payout.


Good Luck!

תגובות


bottom of page