QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
It's been awhile since we posted an article as we have been active in the Facebook chat and posting our stuff on Twitter & Facebook but wanted to get one out today for everyone! We are going to dig into (5) NBA Props for you to consider from the early NBA CheatSheet and then (2) Betting Picks that jump out.
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NBA PLAYER PROPS:
AARON NESMITH OVER 4.5 REBOUNDS
This one jumps out as HOU isn't a great rebounding team and this guy has been all over the boards with 8, 4, 6, 12, 7, 6 and 8 boards over the last 7 games. Looking at this last 7 his floor is 4 and he's hit 7+ in 4 of those 7 games so definitely think this is worth considering.
PAOLO BANCHERO OVER 4.5 ASSISTS
7-0 "OVER" run with a consistent 6-7 per game so I'm shocked this line is still only 4.5 this morning. Even if he misses it tonight keep it on your radar because it's a high hit percentage play that will likely bounce back the next game.
JIMMY BUTLER OVER 27.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS
I haven't had the best betting luck with Butler picks but I think he's worth consideration tonight. He has 5 straight OVERS and will be needed in a tough game vs. ORL. What I like about this is that he has been putting up "well-over" this number in 4/5 with 36, 44, 38 and 40 PRA.
AYO DOSUNMU OVER 19.5 PRA |OR| OVER 12.5 POINTS
His point prop is on an 86% hit rate over the last 7 and his PRA is at 71% over that same span. The matchup is tough but like these low numbers for guys playing 30+ minutes. I'm leaning more on his POINTS prop now seeing the 18, 16, 21, 11, 18 over the last 5 giving him a floor of 11 and hitting 18+ in 3 of 5.
KEYONTE GEORGE OVER 16.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS
I'm not sure if I'm going to have this on my final card but it definitely jumps out on the morning version of the NBA CheatSheet. He has 31, 17, 18 and 28 over the last 4 games. Matchup is tough but he has been very efficient with his minutes on the floor.
BIG SWING PROPS!
"BIG HITTER" is a category that I default to when I want something that could pay plus money. Think of them as "Boom" or "Bust" players with high standard deviations. Let's look at one these two and I can give you some examples.
JOSH GREEN > POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS
Here we can see his normal line of 17.5 so that is likely your "Prize Picks" line if that is all you have access too. You can go ALT and take a lower line at 14+ for (-360) which isn't terrible because anything under the (-500) range will allow you to use a DK boost but on "Boom" or "Bust" players I don't like to alt to lower lines. (NOTE: If you are going to play ALT lines with juice you want lower standard deviation plays that are more consistent and not the boom/bust guys.) But these plays I want to go PLUS money and mix a few together. We can see the 20+ (+125) is plus money and he is on a 3-0 "OVER" run and also over in 4/6. But you can go 22+ and skyrocket up to (+200) and he is on a 2-0 "OVER" run and 3/6. If you start mixing 2-3 legs that are plus money that payout will really start to climb up!
BEN's TOP TIER PLAYS:
I posted earlier in the year if anyone had certain "parameters" they wanted to see and Ben jumped on that so I gave him his own category so he can filter out his picks and then he posts his final plays in the Facebook chat group. Here is what they would look like on the morning sheet. Keep in mind this changes drastically on the PM update when the rest of the lines come out.
SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
We had a solid January going 28-16 (64%) and that was just on the days we had time to dig up and post some plays off the NBA CheatSheet. They are also posted on Twitter & Facebook.
You can see the two games that I jumped on this morning and my write up on those:
No matter how many videos I post I still have people ask me what jumped out on the NBA CheatSheet so I'm going to give you some tips in the above screen shot!
First look at our MODEL and see what our projected score is, does our model like it? Not like it? Then you can decide where to dig from there. Our model is heavier on recent games so it spits out some wild shit but that's what I like about it!
Prior matchups - How did they fare last time they played? I always look at the total, who won and the difference.
EFFICIENCY - I always look at the efficiency stats because they are all based on apples to apples. This is what each team scores and allows per 100 possessions. Points per game is skewed on possessions but efficiency is apples to apples. In this screen shot you can see MEM "O" is down from 1.04 to 0.96 meaning they are scoring only 104 points per 100 possessions on the season and over the last 3 games they are only scoring 96 points per 100. You can also see the "30th" ranking next to each meaning they are bottom in the NBA.
TRENDS - Here you can see NYK are 18-6 SU @ home and 15-8 ATS @ home which is great!
EXAMPLE GAMES THAT JUMPS OUT:
HOUSTON / INDY UNDER 242.5 - I don't bet UNDERS or at least I try not to but this is one that would hit my radar. here we have both teams getting "worse" on their offensive efficiency with HOU dropping from 1.10 to 1.05 and IND from 1.17 to 1.09 and you can see the respective ranking drops as well. Both teams better on defensive efficiency going from 1.09 down to 1.06 and 1.15 down to 1.09. 242.5 feels really high for this game and HOU has only been OVER this number 3 of the last 10 games and IND in 4 of the last 10 games.
PHOENIX (-3) OVER MILWAUKEE
Model has PHX by 9 points and Vegas is at (-3) so we like that.
No prior matchups.
Efficiency we see PHX is a monster going from 1.15 to 1.26 over the last 3 and MIL staying around the same and both teams defensively are in the same ballpark, edge to PHX.
Trends - Nothing really jumps out here.
This didn't make my list just because these two teams can WIN whenever they want too. Giannis and Lillard vs. Durant and Booker, come on, no real edge there but lean to PHX simply because they return home after 7 games on the road and MIL playing their 5th straight road game. Should be a good one!