College Football Picks from CheatSheetPros!
HOW HAVE WE BEEN DOING?
3 Week Saturday Article Run of 13-3 (77%). Last week our “Hammer Play”, as we call it in the premium chat group - was Notre Dame (-19.5) and it was another easy winner with a 45-14 win! Clemson laying -11.5 was a big play and won 30-0! Wake Forest laying 5 rolled up an easy win going 41-10.
FRIDAY – DECEMBER 3RD, 2021
WESTERN KENTUCKY (-1.5) OVER UTSA
WESTERN KENTUCKY / UTSA OVER 72.5 TOTAL POINTS
PROJECTED SCORE: W. Kentucky 32 vs. UTSA 29
Western Kentucky ranks #2 in offensive yards per game at 519.4 and #1 in offensive passing yards per game at 417.7. They are coming to this game with a 5-0 ATS run and 8-2-1 ATS run for the year. Their most recent game they faced Marshall who is in the same tier of team as UTSA who they play this week. Marshall has a power ranking of 37 and UTSA is at 40. This means on an even field UTSA is around -3 points better than Marshall. Last week Western Kentucky went on the road and destroyed Marshall 53-21. They had the FD advantage 25-20, rushing yard edge 157-126, passing yard edge 328-199 and total yard edge of 485-325.
UTSA comes in with a 11-1 record on the season but an 0-3 ATS skid. They failed to cover the -33 against So Miss only winning by 10, then they faced UAB and won 34-31 as a -4 favorite and last week faced North Texas as a -8.5 favorite and got thumped 45-23. Last week North Texas took a 456-366 total yard edge and 27-16 FD edge.
This is a revenger for Western Kentucky who lost in their last matchup played on October 9th of this year. In that game it was 52-46 UTSA taking the win as a +3 dog. In that game we had 98 total points scored, 67 first downs and over 1,200 total offensive yards.
SATURDAY – DECEMBER 4TH, 2021
OKLAHOMA STATE (-5.5) OVER BAYLOR
This game is right on the edge for me as our custom algorithm has this as OSU -7 just giving us the smallest of cushions. The last 3 games and common opponents are what stands out to me. Baylor just squeaked by Texas Tech 27-24 as a (-14.5) point favorite. OSU played Texas Tech the week before last and thumped them 23-0. TCU knocked off Baylor 4 weeks ago 30-28 and 3 weeks ago OSU thumped TCU 63-17. OSU was on a 9-0 ATS run before the push last week against OU. Baylor is 2-2 ATS last 4 games. Slight lean to OSU -5.5.
GEORGIA (-6.5) OVER ALABAMA
PROJECTED SCORE: Georgia 29 vs. Alabama 16
What a game this will be! Georgia has played a soft schedule just crushing opponents. The most recent games of any decent team was Tennessee and they won 41-17, Florida 34-7, Auburn 34-10 and Arkansas 37-0. Alabama has been on a skid going 1-3 ATS over the last 4 games. Most recently they went into OT against Auburn and squeaked out a 24-22 win but they were a (-20) point favorite. The prior week they faced Arkansas and won 42-35 as a (-21) favorite. In the game last week it’s not like Auburn ran all over Alabama, they only managed 159 total yards and 12 first downs so ‘Bama has a solid “D”. PFF model has this as Georga -4.5 so that would put you on the +6.5 with Alabama but my model has Georgia -9 so taking the better team that will be ready for this game!
MICHIGAN (-10.5) OVER IOWA
Michigan is on fire right now after taking down the unstoppable Ohio State offense 42-27! They ran for 297 yards in that game and had 487 total yards of offensive. They held the slightest of edges at 24-23 FDs and 487-458 total yards. Iowa managed to come back from a 21-6 deficit last week against Nebraska taking them 28-21. In that ugly game they still only managed 364 total yards of offensive and 19 first downs. Nebraska has a solid “D” that ranks 51st allowing only 373.2 yards per game but this week they get Michigan who ranks 12th and allowing only 318.8 yards per game. All the models point to a 10-12 point game but most of the championship games will be tight. Taking the 15th best “O” over the 121st rated “O” and laying the points.
PITTSBURGH / WAKE FOREST OVER 72.5
PFF model all over Pittsburgh as they have it at (-10). This game will feature the #6 and #7 offenses in the land putting up 495 and 490 yards per game. Pittsburgh has the better “D” ranked 49th allowing only 371 per game but Wake Forest is 101st allowing 435 yards per game. I wanted to find a side in this game but just can’t do it. Everyone is saying Pittsburgh but after digging into my own stats I leak Wake Forest. I’m going with the shootout in this spot. Since I am leaning Wake Forest and I know they will be able to score but can’t stop anyone the OVER is the only way to go. Pittsburgh has put up 31, 48, 30 and 54 points over the last 4 games. Wake Forest has put up 41, 27, 45, 55, 45, 70 and 40 over recent games with the lowly output of 27 against that tough Clemson “D”.
KENT STATE / NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER 74
I lean Kent State but these two teams just played around 4 weeks ago. On November 3rd Kent State knocked off Northern Illinois 52-47. The 98 total points just jumps out at me and screams “barn burner”. These two teams rank 123rd and 113th in defensive yards allowed per game and then 10th and 56th on offensive. Over the only way to go!
OTHER GAMES WITH OUR SLIGHTEST LEANS BUT DID NOT MAKE OUR CUT:
APPALACHIAN STATE (-3) OVER LA-LAFAYETTE
These two teams are almost identical on paper. In offensive yards per game we have 432 vs. 407 and defensive yards allowed 322 vs. 335 and the most effective YPP stat is 12.3 vs. 12.9. Our custom model has this projected 26-23 with App State winning a close game. Since the spread is also (-3) that doesn’t help us, so we need to look at recent games and common opponents to break down these tight games. Both teams beat LA-Monroe (App State 59-28 & LAL 21-16), both teams also beat Troy (App State 45-7 & LAL 35-21), both teams beat Georgia State (App State 45-16 & LAL 21-17). LAL beat LA Monroe last week 21-16 and held a 383-325 yard edge and gave up a 20-17 FD edge. LA Monroe has a power ranking of only 23. App State played Georgia Southern last week who has a power ranking of 30, which still isn’t great, but they beat them 27-3. I should also mention this is a REVENGE game for App State who was beat earlier in the season 41-13 by La-Lafayette. In that game App State had 4 turnovers and they were 0 for 11 on 3rd downs and only managed 211 total yards. La had 22 FDs with 455 total yards and only 1 turnover. Revenge Call!
SAN DIEGO ST (-6) OVER UTAH STATE
The PFF model line for this game is SDST (-17.5) and our custom algorithm line is (-11) so glad to lay the -6 in this spot. These are not teams I was typically betting throughout the season so I had to do some extra digging. Utah State appears to have the 23rd ranked offensive putting up a ton of offensive yards per game and that scared me a bit. Looking at their recent games they played the following (power rank): New Mexico (14) won 35-10, Wyoming (37) lost 44-17, San Jose St (32) won 48-17 and New Mexico St (19) won 35-13. Utah State somehow has a power ranking of 40 from beating up on these smaller opponents. Now let’s look at San Diego State who has a power ranking of 44 and their recent games. Boise State (45) won 27-16, UNLV (29) won 28-20 and Nevada (47) won 23-21. At least SDSt has two recent wins against 45 and higher teams in the power rankings. Leaning to the -6 in this spot but not familiar with these teams so take it with a grain of salt.
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