COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS!
QUICK UPDATE: This week was one of the hardest weeks I've had trying to pick plays. All the games that I wanted the lines felt "inflated" and just a little too high so I had to step back and make other considerations. I may post some more plays in the premium group if any jump out at me. James Madison is my favorite pick right now.
UCLA (+6) OVER OREGON
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: UCLA 35 vs. OREGON 30
Having the (+6) dog winning the game outright is something we need to dive into! These two teams are very close so grabbing the points seems like a no brainer. UCLA has the 6th rated offense facing the 84th defense of Oregon. Oregon has the 14th rated offense facing the 30th rated defense of UCLA. Both teams putting up over 490 yards per game so this could be a shootout.
JAMES MADISON (-13 OR 1ST HALF) OVER MARSHALL
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: JAMES MADISON 34 vs. MARSHALL 17
Marshall was knocked off by LA Lafayette last week by 10 points as a (-10) point favorite. The prior lined game they lost 16-7 vs. Troy as a (-3.5) favorite and lost 34-31 against Bowling Green as a (-17) point favorite. So we have 3 games they were listed as a fav they lost outright, yuck! I’m back on James Madison after they let us down last week. In that game they had 4 TURNOVERS! BRUTAL! Did you know they still managed to put up 31 first downs and 675 yards! Do you know how rare it is for a team to put up almost 700 yards of offense? The prior week against Arkansas State they won 42-20 and had a 33-11 first down edge and 598 to 267 yard edge.
MARYLAND (-13.5 OR 1ST HALF) OVER NORTHWESTERN
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: MARYLAND 34 vs. NORTHWESTERN 18
Northwestern has lost 5 straight games including a 31-24 loss to unranked Southern Illinois and a 17-14 loss to 102nd ranked Miami OH. Maryland has a mediocre defense but the 25th rated offense putting up 460 yards per game. Maryland has 2 games vs. Top 25 teams and they lost to Michigan 34-27 and Purdue 31-29 but kept them close. Our model has this at (-17) but PFF has (-21), FO (-23) and TRanks (-22) so everyone is on the same side so let’s see what happens!
MINNESOTA (+5) OVER PENN STATE
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: MINNESOTA 25 vs. PENN STATE 20
I’ve seen this line from (+4) to (+5) so I’m good with anything at this point. Our model has Minnesota winning this game so getting points with that defense is a plus! Minnesota only allowing 277.6 yards per game on defense while Penn State allowing 379.2. Both teams around 400 offensive yards per game but Minnesota is 17th in rushing yards per game at 212. I have not been overly impressed with Penn State as they were rolled by Michigan 41-17 giving up a 28-10 first down edge and 563-268 yard edge. They beat a horrible Northwestern team only 17-7 as a (-25) point favorite and didn’t cover their (-28) point spread vs. C. Michigan winning only 33-14. Grab the points in a close low scoring game!
ALSO CONSIDER: WAKE FOREST (-21) OVER BOSTON COLLEGE AND UTAH STATE (+4.5) OVER WYOMING