COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS - WEEK 12!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
College Football is flying by so wanted to get some solid picks up for this week! I'm on PTO next week so should have plenty of content flying around the website, Twitter and chat group!
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KANSAS STATE (-7) OVER WEST VIRGINIA
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: KANSAS STATE 36 vs. WEST VIRGINIA 20
Our model has this with K-State easily covering the spread. KST has put up 31, 27 and 48 points in the last 3 games going 2-1 in those. Check the 31-3 thumping of Baylor last week with a nice 30-17 first down edge and 405-305 total yard edge. West Virginia beat OU last week 23-20 but check prior 3 games that were losses by 17, 10 and 38. WVA defense ranks 109th allowing 441.5 yards per game and they are 120th in passing yards allowed per game. I’m backing the CATS!
OREGON STATE (-8) OVER ARIZONA STATE
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: OREGON STATE 33 vs. ARIZONA STATE 20
Our model pegged this around a 12 point advantage for Oregon State so glad to lay anything less. The difference here is the defense as Oregon State ranks 25th allowing only 343 yards per game while Arizona State ranks 113th allowing nearly 450 yards per game. AZST is 2-7 over the last 9 games beating only Colorado by 8 and they picked up a big “W” against Washington in Week 6. Oregon State is 4-1 over the last 5 games coming off a big 38-10 win over California where they had a 21-10 first down edge and 362-156 total yard edge. Lay it!
WESTERN KENTUCKY (+5.5) OVER AUBURN
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: WESTERN KENTUCKY 33 vs. AUBURN 23
Our model has WKY winning the game outright so if you want a little more risk you can hit that MONEYLINE! Western Kentucky ranks 7th on offense with nearly 500 yards per game and they put up the 3rd most passing yards per game at just over 340 per game. Auburn ranks 81st on offense and 82nd on defense. Auburn is 1-5 over the last 6 games knocking off A&M last week 13-10 and they did have an 18-12 first down edge and 330-215 total yard edge. Western Kentucky has not played the strength of schedule as Auburn but they are putting up 38 points per game and moving the ball. Auburn ranks around 60th and WKY has played 3 teams in that range and they lost 40-13, won 20-17 and lost 31-28. Is the schedule of Auburn the only thing holding them back? Are they too much for WKY? We will see but I’m taking a shot at (+5.5) as I love teams that can PASS and score quickly!
SECOND TIER PLAYS TO CONSIDER:
NORTH CAROLINA (1ST HALF / -21) OVER GEORGIA TECH
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: UNC 37 vs. GTECH 20
Our model has this around a 17 point game so not covering the full game spread which is why it falls into the second tier of games. If you’ve read my plays I like to find games such as this one and take the 1st half line and if they are down slam the 2nd half line giving you two opportunities to win but it does cost a bit more. Last week we did the same thing with Georgia. Geogia didn’t cover the 1H line but they rolled the 2nd half and even ended up covering the full game spread which was nice. Drake Maye (UNC-QB) is running the 8th best offense right now putting up 495 yards per game and the 2nd most passing yards at 346 per game. Look at these stats over recent games – 448/3, 293/2, 388/5, 380/3, 309/2 and 363/3 (passing yards/touchdowns). UNC will score and they will score A LOT against the 88th ranked defense allowing 400+ yards per game. UNC has a defensive problem that ranks 124th allowing 475 yards per game but Georgia Tech ranks 110th on offense and they struggle to move the ball. So I like taking the 1H/2H approach as they should eat in this game. G-Tech averages only 15.1 points per game while allowing 30.0 points per game.
TENNESSEE (1ST HALF/-21) OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: TENNESSEE 40 vs. SOUTH CAROLINA 19
Our model has this right on the full game spread so it falls into the second tier of plays. Another game that I like taking the 1st half spread and hitting the 2nd half if they are down. South Carolina just lost 38-6 on the road to Florida and in that game they managed only 11 first downs and 237 total yards while giving up 26 first downs and 515 yards. Ouch! Tennessee is holding the #1 offense right now at 526.8 yards per game and they are 9-1 on the season with their only loss coming against that Geogia Bulldog defense. Looking past that Georgia game they have scored 66, 44, 65, 52 and 40 points in the other 5 games and check 66-24 over MU, 44-6 over Kentucky and 40-13 over LSU.
SAME GAME PARLAY NOTES:
This early in the week they usually don’t have many lines out for the SGP’s but some games that I’m really going to focus on are: UCLA/USC, TCU/Baylor and Arkansas/Ole Miss. These are high total shootout games that will put up a ton of points. One of the things I love with College Football is taking each team OVER a point total in the first half and the game so you have 4 legs in just scoring. You can even add additional legs based on stats but if you are new to SGP’s I would focus on the QB’s because you know they will be on the field and TOP TIER running backs that get 20+ carries a game. I’ve noticed TOP TIER WRs that are going off at 100+ yards per game will get 2 grabs for 20 yards and completely sink a large SGP. It happens with RBs also but just not nearly as much. At least with the QB you KNOW they will have the attempts and be on the field for the entire game!