NFL Wild Card Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
We have a great week of games coming up but make sure to watch the weather. Players like Lamar Jackson have never played in snow and most places it’s going to be cold. If you are doing any NBA I have my Free Facebook group link at the bottom where I post my NBA Cheatsheet on Thursday every weeks. Feel free to check it out.
STACKING FOR GPPS:
The stacking concept is simple. Most GPP winning lineups will have a team QB and usually at least 2 pass catchers and one from the opposing team. So that is a good start for building your lineups. Find your QB + 2 pass catchers + 1 run back player from the other team and fill in from there.
GAME BY GAME BREAKDOWN:
LA RAMS @ PACKERS
VEGAS: Packers opened -7 and now -6.5 with 45.5 over/under.
OUR MODEL: We have this game Packers 27-19 so we are near the Vegas numbers on the side and total.
GAME NOTES & STACKS:
This game features the #1 offensive in the Green Bay Packers facing the #4 total defense in the Rams. The Rams rank 10th on offensive facing the Packers 17th rated defense. Rams have a solid defense and they allow only 3.9 yards per rush which ranks 4th best in the NFL. Packers are mid range and allow 4.5 yards per rush which is 21st in the NFL. This points to another solid CAM AKERS (5700) game for us. Packers also sit at 28th in covering pass catching RBs. Last week Akers put up 28.6 DK points and should have success again this week. I don’t care much for a Rams stack as most WRs have a limited ceiling on this “run first team”. It was all the way back to Week 11 when we saw Kupp and Woods both have monster games. (33.6 and 28.5 DKPs)
Packers have the top offensive in the NFL so they will move the ball against this solid defense. Packers are #1 in red zone td conversation percentage. With the extra week off I really like Aaron Rodgers (6900) to continue his MVP season. He has put up 23+ DKPs in 10 of the last 11 weeks giving you a solid floor. He has hit the 29-34 DKP barrier 3 times during that span. DaVante Adams (8600) is expensive and will be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. I don’t expect him to get “shut down” but temper expectations as this is more of a 2x – 2.5x game for Adams at his salary. Hopefully this will keep his GPP ownership down because he does have a big ceiling putting up games of 46.2, 37.1 and 36.3 DKP over the last 9 weeks. Robert Tonyan (4200) continues to be a consistent point producer for Aaron Rodgers putting up 10+ DKPs in 6 of the last 7 weeks but has a low ceiling as he has not broke 20 DKPs in back in Week 4. Perhaps this week Tonyan can have a bigger role of Jalen Ramsey is all over Adams??? The other spot we need to consider for stacking is with Allen Lazard (3900) or MVS (3800) as both of these guys are rotating eating up targets and the DK points left over from Adams. If Adams get locked down then one of these two guys is going to have a much bigger role. In the past games when Aaron Jones struggled to get going it was Adams plus one of these guys putting up points. My preference is Allen Lazard as he runs 54% of routes out of the slot and has a much better matchup than MVS running on the outside. Troy Hill who typically covers the slot has a much higher allowed watch rate and fantasy point per route than his team mates.
FAVORITE GAME PLAYERS: Aaron Rodgers, DaVante Adams, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Cam Akers
BALTIMORE @ BUFFALO
VEGAS: Buffalo -2.5 and total 49.5 and has not moved.
OUR MODEL: We have this game Ravens winning 28-27. The biggest difference that jumps out is our total vs. Vegas so I lean OVER 49.5 here and don’t mind a parlay with Ravens ML if you think they are going to win.
GAME NOTES & STACKS:
This game should be one of the closest and tightest games on the weekend. Lamar Jackson has never played in snow and there may be snow this weekend in Buffalo so watch the weather. This game features the Ravens 11th total offense and #1 rushing offense facing Buffalo and their 12th total defense and 17th rushing defense. On the other side Buffalo ranks 5th in total “O” and that is heavily weighted on the #3 passing offense.
Buffalo allows 4.7 yards per rush which ranks 25th in the NFL and they are allowing 122.2 rushing yards per game (20th) and that does not bode well for stopping the #1 rushing offense that is putting 194.5 rush yards per game on their opponents. Lamar Jackson (7600) has rushed for 97, 80, 35 and 124 over the last 4 weeks giving him a huge floor. He has also put up 25, 22, 30 and 38 DKPs giving up almost a 40 DKP ceiling. J.K. Dobbins (6000) continues to run as
the primary slightly ahead of Gus Edwards (4200). I do like the 1800 discount on Gus Edwards as he has put up 8, 14, 10 and 18 DKPs over the last 4 weeks and rushed 12 and 15 times over the last two weeks as compared to Dobbins who has rushed 13, 11, 14 and 13 times over the last 4 weeks. Dobbins has put up 31, 14, 15 and 13 DKPs during that time. In the last 4 weeks Dobbins has 2 total passing targets and Gus has 6. I don’t mind using either back as both of them should have success this week. I would like to add in that Buffalo is dead last in allowing chunk runs of 5-10 yards so these rush yards will pile up FAST!
Marquise Brown (5200) is cheap enough to plug in and has been on a 4 week tear putting up 23, 21, 13 and 16 DKPs. Mark Andrews (5000) is slightly cheaper and Ravens rank 22nd vs. TEs. Either are fine for a stack.
Josh Allen (7400) has put up 35+ DKPs in 3 of his last 4 and he is playing at home this week so he is definitely in play. He is rushing for around 30-35 yards per game so not enough for stand alone value but Stefon Diggs (7300) is the easy stack with him. Diggs has put up 28, 15, 45, 29 and 32 DKPs the last 5 weeks giving you monster value. Cole Beasley (4900) or John Brown (4600) is a good secondary stack option to add in with Diggs. One of them is almost guaranteed for 15+ DKPs and they are both priced below 5k giving you 3x value. I did not see any injuries yet this week so make sure they are active. My preference is Cole Beasley as he runs out of the slot the majority of the time which is covered by Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey is allowing the highest fantasy point per route and catch rate numbers on his team so outside of Diggs I lean the Bease!
Devin Singletary (4500) becomes interesting with Zach Moss done for the season. Buffalo can’t run the ball and Baltimore is fairly decent against the run but if he is the full time RB and not splitting carries he is cheap enough to get value. Like him mixed into GPP lineups but not cash.
FAVORITE GAME PLAYERS: Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards (1800 savings over Dobbins is why), Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley.
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY
VEGAS: KC opened -10 and still -10 and total has went from 55.5 to 57.
OUR MODEL: We have this game 32-28 with a KC win. My personal thought is Cleveland gets destroyed here and this is more 35-21.
GAME NOTES & STACKS:
This game features the 2nd best offensive in the NFL facing the Browns and their 25th defense. The one stand out is KC is 2nd in passing offensive and the Browns are 25th in passing defense. On the flip side the Browns are 9th in total offense and KC is 22nd in total defense so points will be scored and by the Vegas total a whole bunch of them! The hole for KC is the Browns are 7th in rushing offense and KC is 31st in rushing defense. Ut-oh…. Anyone who knows me or has followed me knows I live in the KC area and I’m a big Chiefs fan so sorry if my evaluation is biased.
PATRICK MAHOMES (8000) is going to throw all over Cleveland as they are giving up the 25th most passing yards per game and KC is putting up the most passing yards per game in the NFL. So how do we not recommend Mahomie? He should sit in that 25-35 DKPs depending on the game, almost a lock for 300 passing yards and 2+ scores. Cleveland is also 29th vs. WR-3s, 28th vs. TE and 23rd vs. pass catching RBs. Travis Kelce (7800) is expensive but he is almost a sure thing as he has put up 23, 23, 31, 31, 16 and 30 DKPs over recent weeks. Tyreek Hill (8000) is in the nose-bleed pricing and he is also in play. Hill has more risk-reward as over those same weeks he has lows of 10-15 DKPs but has highs of 30 and 60 DKPs. Travis Kelce has 35 lbs and 5” on the guy who is going to cover him primarily so that is a bid advantage. Tyreek also has a solid matchup as he runs out of the slot on over half his routes and that is covered by M.J. Steward almost 90% of the time. Stewart is allowing the highest fantasy points per route ON THE SLATE OF ALL CORNERBACKS and the 2nd highest CATCH RATE at 76% (one other guy is allowing 77%).
Nick Chubb (6600) and Kareem Hunt (4800) are both cheap and should have success. Like we said earlier KC is 31st in rush defense and allowing 4.5 yards per rush. They also ran 31st at pass catching RBs PLUS do you buy into a Kareem Hunt revenger here??? Cleveland has no option but to RUN THE BALL and CONTROL THE CLOCK because if this game gets out of hand and they have to fall back on the pass then it could get ugly quick. KC is dead last in stopping the power runs, 20th in allowing runs of 10+ yards and has the 25th D-Line. Browns RBs are in business this week.
FAVORITE GAME PLAYERS: Chubb, Hunt, Mahomes, Kelce, Hill.
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS
VEGAS: Tampa opened +3.5 and now +3 total opened 50.5 and now 52.
OUR MODEL: We have this game Tampa wining 30-24. I don’t know which side I like as this should be a great back and forth game so I’d lean on taking the points and get the hook to +3.5 as this should be a FG game at the end.
GAME NOTES & STACKS:
This game features the 3rd and 7th best offenses and the 2nd and 5th best defenses. Tampa has the 2nd most passing yards per game and the Saints allow the 5th fewest passing yards per game. The Saints have the 6th most rushing yards per game and the Bucs allow the LEAST amount of rush yards per game. Great matchup but not great for DFS.
Both defenses have been shutting down the run game as Tampa allows the least yards per rush at 3.6 and least amount of rush yards per game at 80.9 and the Saints allow 3.8 yards per rush (3rd best) and 91.2 rush yards per game. Alvin Kamara (7900) is always in play due to his 10 catch upside and work in the passing game. Drew Brees (5600) is way too cheap for this week and he is an easy stack candidate. Drew Brees is 2400 cheaper than Mahomes and is still hitting around 20 DKP per game. If you stack up Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara then you need either Michael Thomas (6700) or Emmanuel Sanders (4500). Sanders had a consistent run of 11-21 DKP games in Week 14-Week 17. Thomas came back in the Wild Card game and put up 18.3 DKPs. Jared Cook (4000) is that cheap guy you can stack in but has a low ceiling as he is the 4th option at best for passing down work. He has 11+ DKPs in 4 of his last 6 games giving you a decent cash floor but definitely not my favorite TE of the week.
Tom Brady (6300) is also cheap and a great stack target. I like him over Drew Brees since Tampa is passing on 63% of down this season compared to only 53% of the Saints. Brady has put up 26, 34, 33 and 27 DKP over the last 4 weeks. That is pushing 5x-6x production on his price point. Tampa Bay can’t run as they rank 27th in rush yards per game but who cares when you have Tom Brady under center. Mike Evans (6400) has been the recent favorite target of Brady but will be in shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore who has had his number. I still think Evans can have a solid game because his price point is low enough so for me it just depends on where the ownership numbers fall. Chris Godwin (6100) & Antonio Brown (5400) are both smashing right now. Godwin has put up 19, 33 and 19 DKPs over the last 3 weeks and AB has put up 15, 39.8 and 14.
FAVORITE GAME PLAYERS: Tom Brady, Antonio Brown, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas
My Player Pool & Ranks from Left to Right:
Tom Brady / Patrick Mahomes / Lamar Jackson / Drew Brees
Alvin Kamar / Nick Chubb / Cam Akers / Kareen Hunt
Stefon Diggs / Michael Thomas / Tyreek Hill / Godwin / Adams / AB
Travis Kelce / Mark Andrews / Austin Hooper / Tonyan
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze