GRADE TAB BREAKDOWN 2-7-20
I love to do the breakdowns with results so you can see the “thinking” behind the DFS plays and how I break them down when building my own lineups. Here is the recap from 2-7-20 with results. I’ve circled the KEY FACTORS to look at, also the check mark on the left of the player means they hit or crushed value, the “-“ on the right means they did not hit value.
KANTER – Total edge was way over the 100 we look for at 198 and looking at his 21.2 minute average he is putting up 6x value – WOW! So he is projected for an additional 5 minutes tonight and already hitting value consistently with less minutes. Easy chalk lock that we can eat. Let’s also add in that his DVP number was 1.12 which is a monster smash spot!
MELTON – You could go either way here, EDGE of a low 54.6 but putting up 4.5x value in 19.3 minutes per game is decent and he is projected for 28 minutes and if you are confident in adding 35% more minutes that would easily get him from 4.5x over 5x value. DVP spot of 0.78 is a red flag but priced at 3700 on DK I could see the play.
RUBIO – Edge over 100, minutes over 30 so someone we would consider. However, looking at 28 minutes per game and barely breaking 4x is a red flag. Also the FPPM production dip from 1.12 down to 0.74 over his L6 games is a -34% decrease and that is red flag number 2. Move on and find another guy.
GREEN – Players projected below 30 minutes have high variance, he is playing only 12.2 per game and projected at 20. He ended up only playing 4 minutes. Also a -30% FPPM production dip over last 6 is a red flag.
THON MAKER – This is one that I want to show a comparison with because he is the same as GREEN (directly above). Both players were projected to beat value by the industry, both averaging only 11-12 minutes per game and both putting up only 2-2.5x value. HOWEVER, Thon has a FPPM production jump from 0.76 to 0.94 for a 23% increase + we all know Drummond is gone so his projected minutes are safer than Green. With Green having a -30% dip and Thon +23% that moves me to Thon > Green.
ADAMS – Monster edge grade of 199.6, DVP spot is a whopping 1.28 which is a smash spot. He has a dip in FPPM production and putting only 4.2x in the same minutes. Due to the smash spot I’d play him but not as a lock with his dip in recent production, just include him in the player pool with a 10-50% player exposure. He smashed FYI!
OLYNYK – Another player that looked great and I would have been fine playing him with a huge edge, great recent form and a bump in FPPM production. However the minutes <30 players have variance in their actual minutes, he was projected for 24-25 and only played 18-19 which is less than his L4 average. Be careful with <30 projected players, this is a good example.
TATUM – Loved him and he was my lock of the night. EDGE of 197, MIN projected 36, averaging over 31 minutes per game over the L4 and in those 31 minutes he is putting up 5.6x value. 6% bump in FPPM production is sweet and his DVP spot is a solid 1.11 on the night. Add in the outside factors that Jaylen Brown, Hayward were OUT and Kemba was limited minutes and his usage skyrockets! He went boom last night! Yes boom!
SIMMONS – EDGE over 120, MIN over 30 so we want to look further. In the same average minutes as projected he is putting up 5.5x value over his last 4. FPPM production is steady and DVP spot is 0.95 which is pretty decent. Great play that got past value.
WOOD – EDGE under 100 but MIN over 30. We all know Drummond was traded so Wood was going to get the minutes. With only 24 minutes per game average over his L4 he was hitting 4.3x so adding 25% more minutes you would think 5x is a solid number he could hit. Add in the steady FPPM production of 1.14 and the smash DVP spot of 1.04 and he is an easy play.
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