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MLB Analysis from bathrobeDFS!


Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings.


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With that being said, let’s get into it!

Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)

DET (Zimmermann, RHP) vs NYY (Tanaka, RHP) - O/U - 8, NYY -237

Overcast. Chilly. Temps around 50. Wind blowing in 9mph. Boost to pitchers.


MIL (Chacin, RHP) vs CIN (DeSclafani, RHP) - O/U - 9, CIN -111

Clear. Temps in the High 50s. Light winds.


PHI (Eflin, RHP) vs WAS (Scherzer, RHP) - O/U - 7, WAS -196

60% chance of Light Rain at game time for 3 hours or so. Wind blowing in at 7mph. Rain supposed to end by 10pm or so. So this may be light enough that they can play through it. Or they could just wait and check how it goes. Either way, I am going to assume this game gets in so I will treat it thusly.


BAL (Cashner, RHP) vs TOR (Stroman, RHP) - O/U - 8.5, TOR -201

DOME


NYM (Vargas, LHP) vs MIA (Urena, RHP) - O/U - 8, NYM -128

DOME


COL (Freeland, LHP) vs TB (Snell, LHP) - O/U - 7, TB -144

DOME


HOU (Verlander, RHP) vs TEX (Miller, RHP) - O/U - 9, HOU -203

Clear. Warm. Winds blowing in at 13mph.


MIN (Berrios, RHP) vs KC (Keller, RHP) - O/U - 7.5, MIN -136

Partly Cloudy. Temps in the mid-50s. Light winds.


BOS (Sale, LHP) vs OAK (Fiers, RHP) - O/U - 7.5, BOS -169

Cloudy. Temps in the mid 50s. Winds blowing out at 10mph.


ARI (Greinke, RHP) vs SD (Lauer, LHP) - O/U - 7.5, Pick Em

SD Weather. ALLLLLL good. There’s a reason SD has the best weather in the country.


SF (Bumgarner, LHP) vs LAD (Ryu, LHP) - O/U - 7, LAD -177

LA Weather. Alllll good.


LAA (Cahill, RHP) vs SEA (Gonzalez, LHP) - O/U - 8.5, LAA -116

DOME


Today’s Slate

Oh man!! Monday night is trivia night for me. I get to go about half the time depending on how the pain is. Apart from going out to get medicine, it was the first time I’ve been out of the house in about 2 weeks so it was nice. I regularly go against teams of 4 people by myself. I play under the name Quizzly Bear. I win most of the time. It’s super fun. But today I was worried. How the hell am I going to do something besides writing? I literally have done nothing but write for a couple weeks now. Doing the Previews and now an MLB and NBA long-form deep dive every day by myself take a lot of work. Like 12-14 hours a day I am doing this. It’s great cause it takes my mind off the pain. But it leaves little time for leisure. So I was worried tonight. But then I sat down and put together the Game Notes and saw that it was the day where all the Aces go. So that’s going to make this SUPER easy and fast. Yay.


Pitchers

Great Pitchers


Scherzer (11800, RHP) vs PHI - There are going to be a couple of these today. And it’s fun. Pitchers you can use literally every time they are on the mound. Of course, not everyone that you can play every time actually succeeds every time, but that doesn’t change who they are. So, Scherzer is amazing. Whether or not we play him will come down to a few factors - the weather, his ownership, and how everyone else looks. Right now, Max is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, and for good reason. Will he have the most points? It’s possible. But we should take a look at all the other options we have.


Snell (9500, LHP) vs COL - Snell was the Cy Young award winner last season. He doesn’t allow anyone on base. He strikes out a TON of people. He’s going against a Rockies team much weaker away from home in a pitcher’s park. And he’s only the 5th most expensive play? 2300 cheaper than Scherzer? Gimme a break. And go over the field, whatever it is.


Verlander (11500, RHP) at TEX - If not for Snell, Verlander would have been the Cy Young last season. Like I have said on multiple occasions, Verlander is simply one of the best pitchers in the game. You can use him every time he pitches. I could just copy and paste what I said about Scherzer here. Except you save 300 but don’t get a pitcher’s spot. Again, the question is one of ownership and whether or not you want to pay up or take a chance on other aces that are cheaper. Bats or pitchers today, my friend. A choice we will be making all season long. You can go 2 ace pitchers and cheap bats. Two punt pitchers and expensive stacks. Or one of each and then get an expensive stack and some other good batters.


Berrios (9700, RHP) at KC - Berrios could win the Cy Young this year. I picked Gerrit Cole, but it could easily be Berrios. He got off to a hot start, too, allowing 2 hits, 1 walk, and striking out 10 in 7.2 IP. Good for almost 40 DKP. As much as I love Max and Justin, I think I will start my lineup tomorrow with Snell and Berrios. The upside is the exact same for all 4 of these pitchers, and the prices on these guys is laughable. Especially Berrios who has the best matchup of the 4. I have to make one note - Vegas has Berrios as the starter, DK has Berrios as the starter, but some places list the starter as Kyle Gibson which would make this a much different game. If Gibson does start I want nothing to do with him or KC, but I would be much more likely to stack KC than play Gibson. And KC is awful.


Sale (10500, LHP) at OAK - Oh you thought I was done with the aces with Berrios, huh?? Not yet. We also have Chris Sale, who also could have been the Cy Young last year. He is also someone we can use every time he pitches. While I like the cheaper options better, Sale will probably be the least owned, as people pay up for Scherzer and Verlander or try to save money with Berrios and Snell. Either way, today is a day you want to MME so you can get shares of all of these guys in all sorts of different combinations.


Good Pitchers

Ryu (9300, LHP) vs SF - I would call Ryu a great pitcher if I thought he would have a shot at 7 or 8 IP today, but we all know that’s not going to happen as a SP with the Dodgers. So what we can expect is is about 6 IP out of him, against a Giants lineup that only has 2 threats to LHP, with a whole bunch of strikeouts and almost no walks or hits given up. If it weren’t for the tier of pitchers above him, he would be one of the best pitchers on the slate. But I don’t know how you can justify this price when Berrios and Snell are right there. Still, like I have been saying, if you MME get yourself some exposure. There are just better options for single entry.


Greinke (7600, RHP) at SD - On opening day, I put Greinke in the “Great Pitchers, Bad Spots” section because, while I love him as a pitcher, and understand how smart he is and how hard he works, the Dodgers lineup is one designed to destroy pitchers like Greinke. The Padres lineup, while also pretty fierce, is nowhere near as daunting. Especially when it comes to the LH power department. In fact, SD only projects to have 1 LHB start tomorrow, Hosmer. Otherwise Greinke should be able to make his way through a tougher, but still not impossible lineup. And man, what a discount you get for a former Cy Young winner.


Lauer (7300, LHP) vs ARI - Lauer was one of my favorite plays on opening day. He was only 5600 against a poor SFG team at home. Well, now he gets a poor ARI team at home. I don’t know if he’ll have as much success given the number of RHB he will face this time, but I also know that a couple of those batters will be a pitcher, Nick Ahmed and a terrible Catcher. Lauer isn’t going to set the world on fire. And I don’t prefer him over other pitchers, but he is someone we have to consider. And if we building multiple lineups, he is someone to which we should definitely have some exposure. And if he can get his K stuff working, even better.


Great Pitcher???

Madison Bumgarner (8900, LHP) at LAD - I don’t know what to make of MadBum. I honestly don’t. He has looked absolutely awful last season. He looked even worse in ST. But then he fired a gem on opening day against SD, twirling 7 IP while striking out 9 and giving up 2 ER. Good for 26.15 DKP. I don’t think you can expect that again, but I do know that MadBum is one of those dudes that really steps up when the occasion calls for it and he hates the Dodgers. And the Dodgers are a lineup that may wind up having some issues against LHP this season. I mean a lot of their best hitters are lefties. And some of their best RHB are reverse splits hitters, like Pollock and Taylor (meaning they are Righties better against Righties). Given all the other options today, I don’t know if you can go there. I certainly wouldn’t if I was playing one lineup. But, if you are going to MME I would have exposure to both MadBum AND some RH heavy Dodgers mini stacks (with Turner and Hernandez).


Great Spots

Stroman (8300, RHP) vs BAL - One of the free squares of the day, Stroman looked really good opening day against a slightly better Tigers team. He got 7 shutout innings with 7 Ks, which is great. Given the futility of the BAL lineup, I would think he could easily do it again. With all the legit aces on the slate as well, he will almost definitely go overlooked.


Vargas (5600, LHP) vs MIA - I don’t think anyone is going to get Vargas confused with a Scherzer or Verlander, but he’s still a serviceable Major League pitcher who gets people out. He doesn’t strike out of a ton of people, but he strikes out enough for a 5600 price tag. Plus he gets to take on the terrible O of the Marlins, which is another bonus. I mean, in my preview for the Mets I specifically said “Vargas isn’t someone we use very often. But we have to give him serious consideration whenever he pitches against the Marlins.” Turns out that happens in his first start of the year. If you want to get one of the expensive stacks in there, you could do worse for a cheap pitcher than this.

No Thanks


Kyle Freeland (7900) at TB - Freeland is a fine pitcher. I don’t really want to stack against him. And he’s in a great pitcher’s park today in TB. But that means that he doesn’t get the benefit of a pitcher’s spot. He’s also someone who doesn’t strike a lot of people out, meaning that, when we have a slate with legit aces, there’s no reason to go to someone who may only get 4 or 5 Ks in 7 IP.


Brad Keller (7000) vs CWS - Brad Keller will be the de facto “ace” until Duffy comes back, and he certainly pitched like it on opening day, going 7 IP and only allowing 2 hits. The problem with Keller is that he’s a pitcher that relies on a dominant sinker with a decent slider meaning he profiles more as a Dallas Keuchel - someone that should have real world success but someone we can’t use as a pitcher for DFS purposes. After all, Ks are King and his K/9 has never really been that much over 6, even when he was in the minors. This also makes him someone you can not really stack against since we’re not going to see a lot of HR from someone that keeps the ball on the ground. I also don’t expect him to be as lucky today, meaning he won’t maintain the same efficiency and can’t be counted on for as many points. Plus his price came up 2100.


Batters

Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)


Nationals vs Zach Eflin (RHP, @PHI) - Zach Eflin is not the worst #5 pitcher in baseball. But he’s going against Scherzer, so this is not a good spot for him (especially on FD where the win really matters). He is also a pitcher that doesn’t strike out a lot of people and gives up a lot of hits and walks. He is also really, really bad against LHB, so we should make sure to prioritize them.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 6

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB first

Preferred Players: Eaton (OF - 4100), Soto (OF - 5100), Turner (SS - 4900), Rendon (3B - 4700), Zimmerman (1B - 4200), Gomes (C - 3700), Robles (OF - 4200)


Blue Jays vs Cashner (RHP, BAL) - I know that the Blue Jays have started out by making horrible pitchers look like Cy Young winners. Now they get one again. But DFS players need to have short memories. Just because the Jays have disappointed us against some of the worst pitchers in the game doesn’t mean that Cashner, who is legit terrible, will somehow get away with it. Granted, he could, but I would expect the Jays to do to him what the Yanks did - 4 walks, 6 hits, and 6 ER in 4 IP.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 3

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down. So right now that’s projected to be- McKinney (OF - 3800), Drury (3B - 3600), Smoak (1B - 4200), Grichuk (OF - 4400), Tellez (1B - 4000), Hernandez (OF - 4200), etc..


Mets vs Urena (RHP, @MIA) - People are going to keep sleeping on this Mets offense, and that’s fine. People trolled me over my Alonso and Ramos picks yesterday. If you played them, you probably won some money. I will go right back there today against Urena, who is awful. He gives up hits, he gives up HR, he walks dudes. And the Mets have a team filled with patient hitters, sluggers, and LHB. It’s going to be a bad day for the Marlins and their awful bullpen. Plus, they are on the road so they get 9 turns AB no matter what. A huge bonus when considering a stack.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 4

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Alonso (1B - 4100), Cano (2B - 3900), Conforto (OF - 4500), McNeil (3B/OF - 4000), Nimmo (OF - 3900), Ramos (C - 3900)


Astros vs Shelby Miller (RHP, @TEX) - Shelby Miller is a 28 year old who hasn’t gotten more than 4 starts in a season since 2016. And in that season he had a FIP of 4.87 and a WHIP of 1.673. So, basically, stack anyone and everyone you can against him. In that season, while he was bad against RHB, he was all sorts of awful against LHB, so they should be the priority. This is going to be one of a couple chalk stacks. But in order to get there, you are really going to need to take some punts at Pitcher.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Springer (OF - 4800), Altuve (2B - 5200), Bregman (3B/SS - 5000), Brantley (OF - 4500), Correa (SS - 4600), etc...


Red Sox vs Mike Fiers (RHP, @OAK) - Mike Fiers is one of the worst pitchers I’ve ever seen throw a no hitter. And he did it against an amazing Dodgers team, somehow. But. like my dad always used to say, sometimes I’d rather be lucky than good. Sure Fiers can get lucky. But odds are he won’t. He doesn’t strike out anyone. He doesn’t get people out. He gives up a bunch of HR. And now he gets to go against the Red Sox, one of the, if not the, best offense in the game right now. Last game, the A’s hid Fiers behind an opener so he wouldn’t have to face the order 3 times and it worked. But, even if they try that now, it just means a whole bunch of different fantastic hitters he has to deal with. If HOU is not the chalk stack of the day, it’s this one. And for good reason.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down - Betts (OF - 5500), Benintendi (OF - 4900), Devers (3B - 4100), Martinez (OF - 5300), Bogaerts (SS - 4300), Moreland (1B - 3800), etc...


Mariners vs Trevor Cahill (RHP, LAA) - If you are looking for a relatively cheap stack against a bad pitcher that isn’t the Mets, we have a couple in this game. First, Cahill is just not a good pitcher. He wouldn’t even have the #1 spot in this rotation if not for injuries. He doesn’t strike out anyone, and he gives up a bunch of hits and walks. We should be able to get a sneaky M’s stack here.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7

Chalk Level (1-10): 3

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Smith (OF - 4100), Bruce (OF - 4000), Narvaez (C - 3300), Haniger (OF - 4200), Santana (OF - 4000), Encarnacion (1B - 4200), etc...


Angels vs Marco Gonzales (LHP, @SEA) - Gonzales is one of the worst #1 starters in baseball. He is serviceable, but only in situations. And he’s nowhere near the tier of a lot of other team’s #3 starters. Compare him to a Carrasco or Wheeler or Corbin. He is going against an Angels lineup that is going to wreak havoc on LHP this season, and Gonzales will be an early casualty of that. I should also note that if you stack the Angels without Trout, you are getting some REALLY cheap dudes that will help you fit in some of these aces.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 9

Preferred Stack: Full - RHB preferred

Preferred Players: Trout (OF - 5600), Cozart (3B/SS - 3700), SImmons (SS- 3800), Pujols (1B - 3500), Lucroy (C - 3300)


One-Off Batters


Castro (2B - 3700), Prado (1B - 3300) - I mean, you’re kind of wasting a 1B spot by using Prado, honestly. When I recommended him yesterday, I thought he was still a 2B. But still, he went 2-4 which isn’t awful. Just wasn’t the Alonso play I really loved. Still, he crushes the Mets, and crushes LHP and he gets that again. The same can be said for Castro, and I should have included him yesterday.


Adam Jones (OF - 3800), Wilmer Flores (1B/2B - 4300) - Adam Jones is really good against LHP and Wilmer Flores fucking destroys LHP. As long as Lauer can stay in there, these dudes have a good chance of racking up some points.


Longoria (3B - 3500) and Posey (C/1B - 4000) - While I like Ryu a lot, you can play Posey and Longo against any Lefty. And Ryu is absolutely no exception to this rule.

I love when things are this easy. I mean, it’s not going to be easy to decide who we play, but the options are pretty clear. Now we just have to put it together with the lineups that come out. Best of luck everyone!!


Thank you for reading and good luck!

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