MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues for us as I’m headed into a week of PTO for the holiday next week. After blasting a GPP win I went light last night because I didn’t love anything but still turned a 30% profit on my buy ins. Play more on the slates you love with solid stacks and solid pitching and the nights you are unsure then play light. Last night our pitching ended up doing decent after Scherzer didn’t live up to his expectations we had Zac Gallen going 7.0 innings of 1 hit ball with 7 Ks vs. a tough LAD team, Walker B. went 5.0 innings of shutout ball with 6Ks and McKenzie (who was my highest owned SP) went 6.0 innings, 0 ER and 6 Ks. Our stacks at ATL score 7 runs, CLE scored 5 runs and then the Padres went boom in the 8th inning for 8 runs to put up 11 for the game! Earlier main slate today at 3pm so I’ll get started!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
CLAYTON KERSHAW – His last 3 starts were 23, 27 and 28 DK points and the last time he faced ARI was on 08/02 of this year and put up 27 DK points going 5.2 innings, 0 ER and 6 Ks. He is priced up at 10,300 on DK but he is sitting at a solid 2x floor and can push 3x upside. ARI is ice cold right now and rank 28th in the last 10 game power rankings and they are 29th or 30th in the last 14 game stats we post on our cheatsheet. Want some more??? ARI is 1-8 vs. LHP and have a wRC+ that drops from 85.6 down to 68.8. Still want some more? They have faced Kershaw 91 times as a team and only hitting .231 off him. Christian Walker is the only one that is scary as he is 5 for 11 with 4 HRs off Kershaw. Add in that LAD is a -290 favorite and he is almost locked in for a “Win” tonight which is +4 points on DK!
J.A. HAPP – This is someone that I was looking at pretty hard at only 8900 but I’m starting to shy away. At first glance he has 25 and 18 DK points across his last two starts and just faced the NYM in his last start and went 7.1 innings, 0 ER and 5 Ks. However, looking at some advanced stats his BABIP is .167. The average BABIP for a pitcher per Fangraphs should be around .300 so I don’t pay attention anything around .280 - .320 however when you are extreme over or under there is something else going on. His xFIP is 6.08 and his K9 rate is really low at 5.0 this year. Use him at your own risk!
MIKE CLEVINGER – I’m going to pivot down here off Happ to Clevinger at only 8700. He is facing a decent LAA team who ranks 15th in the last 10 power rankings but has a solid 14.2% swinging strike rate and went through last season with a 2.71 ERA and 12.1 K9 ratio and allowed a low .209 batting average. This year he only has 22.2 innings but a 3.18 ERA and .247 average allowed. Solid stats for a mid cost pitcher. He is coming off a start where he faced a tough MIN team and went 6.0 innings 2 ER and 6 Ks. His two starts prior to that he had 10 WALKS which is an issue but let’s chalk that up to some rust and crazy season and he gets back on track tonight!
ZACH ELFIN – Here is your wildcard GPP play for the afternoon! On the surface he has a 4.10 ERA and facing a tough Nationals team. However, his BABIP hit year is a whopping .365 so that means hitters have been lucky on their contact and that should regress down to the mean of around .300. His xFIP indicates his ERA should be closer to 3.02 which is a solid number for someone priced at 7800. In 61 team Abs the Nationals are hitting a low .230 off Eflin with a 26% strikeout rate. Trea Turner is only 2 for 11, Cabrera is 2 for 11, Eaton is 2 for 15. They are also a -165 favorite so he might get a win and that is huge for his price point!
TAIJUAN WALKER – Is this price tag a joke or am I missing something? He is only 4800 on DK and they are even a -130 favorite. I can’t tell if there is an obvious error in pricing or if he is only going to toss a couple innings for his new team. I can’t find anything that says he will be limited to a certain number of pitches. Boston is hardly a scary team right now ranking 29th in the last 10 game power rankings. Heck 94% of the bets are on the TOR run line today. Walker getting a “Win” is almost 1x his salary, lol! He has a 3.27 ERA, 1.09 whip and .205 allowed batting average in 33 innings. However, his BABIP is low at .225 and his xFIP puts him around 4.91 but still the 4800 price tag I’m willing to take a shot. His last 3 starts he has 21, 27 and 19 DK points and that 27 was vs. a tough LAD team. In those 3 start he has 19.0 innings, 3 ER and 17 strikeouts. He also has upside dropping 34 DK points vs. OAK on 7/31. Something is off…
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS. DANNY DUFFY – Duffy was going to make the pitching side of the article until I started looking at some of the advanced stats. Duffy is a solid LHP and heck he plays for my Royals so I gotta like him. However, White Sox at a beast team this year and loaded! Now what jumps out at me right off the bad looking at the MLB cheatsheet is that the are 11-0 vs. LHP an their wRC+ jumps from 104.6 to an outrageous 157.1. Their team batting average also goes from .253 up to .303 and OBP+ISO goes from .495 up to .644. So how is the CHW pricing? Glad you asked because it is fair coming in between 4200-4400 per person for the top 5 man stack. BVP is also solid for the CHW with 151 team Abs they are hitting a whopping .298. 5 projected starts have a wRC+ vs. LHP over 120 and 3 of them are over 175! Our model has them putting up 6.5 runs.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. ANDREW HEANEY – I like Heaney as a pitcher but the Padres are just on fire right now. Dodgers are one of the chalkier stacks on the night and I think most people will find they can fit them in using Walker at only 4800. Padres are projected at only 4.6 runs per Vegas so if I can get them low owned I’m happy to jump on that grenade and see if it explodes. Padres are #1 in last 10 game power rankings, #1 in last 14 days runs per game, team batting average, OBP+ISO and wRC+. Our model has them projected at 6.2 runs and they are priced fair at 4240 per player for the top 5 man stack. Last year Heaney struggled facing LHH giving up a wOBA that is 79 points higher and batting average 100 points higher. Tatis and Machado are just on fire right now so they are almost locks for me in the stack but then you have several LHH in Grishman, Hosmer, Moreland and my favorite Croneworth. Croneworth is still only 3900 and I was playing him when he was down at the 2500 range. He is batting a crazy .346 on the year!
PHILLIES VS. ANIBAL SANCHEZ – Vegas has them projected at 5.5 runs and our model as them at 6.1 so they are in play for us. They are #2 in the last 10 game power rankings and rank in the top 10 in all of our last 14 game team stats. They are running “Hot” right now on the cheatsheet and they faced a mid-low pitcher with the 23rd ranked bullpen behind him. Sanchez has 30 innings under his belt this year with a 6.90 ERA (5.35 xFIP) and allowing a 1.70 whip (horrible!) and a .326 batting average. He ended last season with an xFIP over 5.00. He has the 3rd lowest swinging strike rate on the slate and the Phillies have 117 team Abs facing him hitting .274. Being able to stack McCutchen – Hoskins – Harper – Realmuto plus another of my choosing looks like a fun stack!
If you find a stack that you like I would suggest duplicating it and running it with Kershaw + Walker and then Eflin + Clevinger to give you some differentiation in your lineups. Also if you can stack 5 guys in a single line and then fit 3 from another stack you like that is always a fun sweat! If you have a bunch of money left over which is possible today with some mid-low cost stacks and Walker at 4800 (if you like him) then your 3 one off guys can usually be stud hitters in good spots!
Thanks for reading,