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MLB Breakdown for Friday!


MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

How about those Kansas City Chiefs! Last night was a great night living in KC. Anyways, my kids were at home today so I had to go through all their zoom calls, class work, etc. and now I’m digging into some MLB picks!

PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:

SHANE BIEBER – High end stud going on the road to MIN. He faced them 3 starts back and went 6.0 innings with 2 ER and 10 Ks for 29.3 DK points. His last 5 starts have all been above 28.5 DK points and up to 39.35 DK points. Solid pitching pushing 3x value tonight with monster K upside. He has 50 strikeouts in his last 5 starts.

LUCAS GIOLITO – Gio is having a solid year and has a monster ceiling. In his last 4 starts he has 26.5, 20 and then 59.6 and 43.3 DK points. The 43.3 DK points were against this same DET team where he went 7.0 innings, 0 ER and 13 strikeouts. He might not drop another 40 burger but I don’t think 3x is out of his range. Statwise Gio sits with a K9 rate over 12, whip at 0.99 and allowing a low .186 batting average. DET ranks 29th in our L10 game power rankings. That key stat here is DET holds a 27% strikeout rate over the last 14 days and Gio is a high strikeout pitcher. Now let me explain a little further. Team strikeout range is 20-23% on average so when I see 24% or more on the cheatsheet that is something I’m digging into. DET is 27% over the last 14 days, they are 28.3% vs. RHP for the season and then 30.4% on the road.

KRIS BUBIC – I like some expensive stacks tonight so I need to give you some cheap plays. Bubic has 17 and 19 DK points in his last two starts and for 6600 on DK that is almost 3x return in both starts. But I want to know who did he face? Was it a weak team like ARI or TEX? No, actually they were both against the White Sox. In those two starts vs. the CHW he went 12.1 innings, 4 ER and 12 strikeouts. That is pretty frickin solid consider who he was facing.

YUSEI KIKUCHI – Priced at a low 6200 tonight he makes the article for us as another punt pitcher option. He has a range from 1x value to 5x so that is what we are looking for in GPP. He is coming off a 28.3 DK point start going 6.0 with 1 ER and 7 strikeouts. He has has a 29 pointer going 6.0 with 0 ER and 9 Ks vs a solid Oakland team. If he can limit his walks he should give us a decent return. Facing ARI who ranks 17th in our last 10 game power rankings but in the last 14 days they rank 30th across the board in team batting average (.198), runs per game (3.8), wRC+ (64) and OBISO. Our model only has ARI putting up 3.2 runs in this game so we like the pitcher if he can get a quality start under his belt. He has a 5.23 ERA on the outside but a solid 3.09 xFIP and allowing a low .237 batting average.

CALEB SMITH – GPP only here as he is coming of the IL but should push 90-100 pitches tonight. His command is awful but when he is on he can be lights out. He gets to face a weak SEA team ranked 25th in our L10 game power rankings and they are 26th in team batting average (.227) over the last 14 days and 27th in runs scored (4.1). Soft matchup that he could take advantage of.

STACKS TO CONSIDER:

KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS. STEVEN BRAULT (18TH BULLPEN) – In our chat room the other day I mentioned that KC would be a sneaky bet +175 and they came out and rolled. They also beat up on a solid CLE team the last few games for a 3 game win streak. Now they still only rank 27th in our L10 power rankings so don’t get too excited. They are still 25th in runs per game, 19th in team batting average and 24 in wRC+ but there is upside here. On our cheat sheets I price out the top 5 graded players to stack and I do a cost per person average so I can quickly flip game to game and see the cost. An expensive stack is a 4800-5200 per person and a mid-range is 4200-4600 an a low per person is anything 4000 or less. Now what do you think KC comes in at? It’s ridiculous! They come in at only 3280 per person! That is crazy stupid low! You can roll out Shane Bieber + Lucas Giolito with a 5 man KC stack and still not be tight on your salary. Yes they might score 0 runs but what if they have another 7 run game? I mean they did hang 11 on CLE last night so why not take a chance.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS. CASEY MIZE (19TH BULLPEN) – I love the White Sox they are fun to watch and explosive! They are expensive today but if you want to use a couple cheap pitchers from above they are a fun stack. They rank 5th in our L10 power rankings, 5th in runs per game (5.7) and 9th in team batting average (.272). They have a wRC+ that is 10 points higher at home, team wOBA is 8 points higher and their OBISO number is 45 points higher.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS IN COLORADO (25TH BULLPEN) – The last GPP I won was when the Padres went to Colorado and went nuts so you can imagine my eagerness to get back on the Coors train. I figured the 5 man stack cost for the Angels would be 4600-5200 being in Colorado because that is the norm but they are only 4040 for the top 5 man stack and that is CHEAP! Mike Trout is 6000 and no one else is over 4900. I mean Jared Walsh is only 2500 and he has put up 26 – 14 and 12 DK points in his last 3. Justin Upton is 2900 and has put up 4 – 11 – 30 in his last 3. Plenty of upside here.

Thanks for reading,

Haze

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