MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues into Red Thursday where my Chiefs open the season against the Houston Texans! Sorry there was not article yesterday I felt awful and have some kind of an ear infection and extremely dizzy. It’s like being intoxicated without drinking. Today I think I’m on the up swing as I went to the Dr. and got some steroids to help drain the fluid. Let’s jump into this main slate!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
GERRIT COLE – Only pitcher on the main slate today over 10k. Cole has been up and down this year but coming off a 27.9 DK point start vs. this same BAL team where he went 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 10 strikeouts. Cole has the highest swinging strike rate on the slate at 16.8% and the next closest person is Paddack at only 12.4%. In 62 team Abs vs. Cole BAL is hitting only 0.177 with a 31% strikeout rate. BAL is “hot” rightnow ranking 4th in our L10 game power rankings but Cole is just too much for them.
SONNY GRAY – He isn’t that much cheaper than Cole so I don’t see any reason to pivot down if you have the salary to spend. He is coming off a -13.3 DK point start where STL tagged him for 6 ER in 0.2 innings. Prior to that start he had 19 and 17 DK points so I think 9600 is too much for the risk. On a positive note if you are on the Gray train he did face this Cubs team on 7/29 and put up his highest DK point performance of the year with 39.2 DK points going 6.2 innings with 0 ER and 11 strikeouts. Can he do it again? He has also faced this team for 100 Abs and they are only hitting a low .110 off him with a 32% strikeout rate. GPP only for me but his track records vs. Cubbies is impeccable!
ADBERT ALZOLAY – Here is your GPP play today. He wasn’t in my write up and I looked over him and my first thought was his price tag is way too high and he walks to many hitters. So that is perfect for a GPP play! After digging in I am intrigued on him as a play today. His last outing (I say outing because I don’t know if it was a start or out of the pen) he went 2.2 innings, gave up 2 ER and walked 5 batters. Wow that is ugly! However, prior to that he went 1.0 with 2 Ks, 5.0 with 0 ER and 6 Ks and then 2.0 with 1 ER and 1K. So we have limited innings to look at but some have been really good. He has a 2.08 ERA but his xFIP is 3.96 which is slightly better than average. His K9 rate is insane at 12.5 this year and allowing a .167 batting average. Typically, I would expect his BABIP to be really low for those stats but it is .263 so slightly lower than average but nothing crazy. Plus look at this soft matchup vs. CIN who ranks 28th in our L10 power rankings, 27th in runs per game, 28th in team batting average (.220) and 23rd in wRC+ all over the last 14 days.
KEEGAN AKIN – He has a tough matchup against a NYY team that is starting to heat up but he is priced at a low 6700 on DK so falls into our “punt” category. His last two starts were 23.8 DK points and it was facing this NYY team where he went 5.1 innings, 0 ER and 8 strikeouts. The start before was 19 DK points and he went 4.1 innings, 0 ER and 6 strikeouts. Prior to that it appears he was working out of the pen. So in two starts he has 9.2 innings, 0 ER and 14 strikeouts, yes please! Allowing a 0.174 batting average and facing guys like Gary Sanchez (.122 avg), Brett Gardner (.165), Mike Ford (.139), Aaron Hicks (.209) why not? Our model actually has BAL winning this game, that might be a stretch but BAL is +230 so they only need to win a small percentage of the time.
SANDY ALCANTARA – Alcantara faces PHI today so we want to look and see if he has faced them already this year and the answer is YES! So how did he do? He went 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 7 Ks for 28 DK points. Priced at 6600 today that is pushing 5x value. I use terms of “X” value because Cole won’t be close to 5x. That would mean Cole at 10,000 (which he is slightly over 10k today) would need 10,000 x 5 = 50+ DK points. 3 of his last 4 starts have been stellar outings putting up 28, -2, 28 and 18 DK points. His BABIP of .214 is really low and that worries me that we might have a “blow up” spot soon but with 3 of his last 4 starts pushing 5x value on a shorter slate he has to be in the player pool.
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
DODGERS VS. MAD BUM (25TH BULLPEN) – Poor Mad Bum getting shelled this year and that is putting it lightly. His high this year in terms of DK points is 14.4 points and that was on 7/29. His last 3 starts he put up 6.0, -7 and -7.5 DK points. In those 3 starts he has only lasted a combined 10.1 innings and gave up 14 ERs and only managed 6 Ks. LAD comes in ranking 7th in our L10 game power rankings and they have faced Mad Bum for 176 team Abs and hitting a solid .318 off him with 8 HRs. I like anyone in this lineup to plug into your other stacks. AJ Pollock is hitting .290 on the year and holds a .407 wOBA vs. LHP and vs. Mad Bum specifically he is 18 for 63 (.286) with 3 HRs. KiKi Hernandez is 25 for 50 (.500) with 4 HRs, Wow! That is insane! Hitting .500 off a pitcher through 50 Abs. Pollock is only 3900 and KiKi is only 3500. Muncy and Taylor have both struggled vs. Mad Bum hitting .182 and .130 with 10+ Abs. I like Mookie / Seager / Pollock / KiKi and then fitting in a 4th of your choice that is affordable.
MIAMI MARLINS VS. JAKE ARRIETA (30TH BULLPEN) – So I want to get at least one lineup with Cole & Sonny Gray so that means I need to find a cheap stack that has some potential. Marlins are where I’m looking today as Vegas has them projected at 4.6 runs and our model has them a 5.0 and they are DIRT CHEAP! They are a middle of the road team trying to make a move. Now let’s start looking at Jake Arrieta who has been up and down. He is coming off a terrific start of 7.0 innings, 2 ER and 7 Ks vs. a tough NYM team and he was even on the road. His start before he was -16.4 points and only lasted 1.1 innings and gave up 7 ERs with NO strikeouts. So which Jake are we going to see? Even if he has a good start the bullpen is awful with an xFIP of 4.88, whip of 1.89 and allowing a .328 batting average. Think about that! The bullpen for PHILLY is allowing a batting average of .328, that is just horrible! The HR/9 is also 2.24 which is one of the highest in the entire MLB. In 83 team Abs they are hitting .337 off Arrieta with a 22% strikeout rate. Corey Dickerson (3000 – crazy cheap!) is 6 for 14 off Arrieta, Matt Joyce (2100 – is that priced correct? My god that is low.) is 7 for 21 with a HR and Miguel Rojas (3400) is 5 for 14 also with a HR. Cooper (3100) is 0 for 5 but he is red hot right now with 14 and 21 DK points in his last two games and 75% of games over the last 12 days he is hitting at least 2x.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. TREVOR CAHILL (23RD BULLPEN) – I like stacking this game. Padres are #1 in our L10 game power rankings, 2nd in runs per game (6.7), 1st in team batting average (.305) and 2nd in OBISO and 2nd in wRC+ over the last 14 days. What makes my system so much easier is having my MLB Cheat Sheet where I can quickly see game stats and project how a game will play out. It is helpful for DFS and Sports Betting. Cahill has a 5.98 ERA and allowing a .273 batting average. He had some arm discomfort so his last two starts were only 2.2 and 3.1 innings as they are trying not to put too much strain on him. In his last 3 starts they were all vs. ARI he has 11.1 innings, 4 ERs and 14 strikeouts. Now ARI is hardly a power house team and they rank 23rd in our power ranking and as of today they are 30th in runs per game, team batting average, team OBISO and wRC+ over the last 14 days. Padres are an entirely new animal he will have to face!
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS. CHRIS PADDACK (12TH BULLPEN) – Paddack is a great pitcher and ended last year with a 3.33 ERA and allowing a .204 batting average in 140.2 innings. Awesome! However, this year is a different story as he sits with a 4.75 ERA and allowing a .270 batting average. His xFIP indicates his ERA should be closer to 3.71. He is up and down in his starts coming off a 4.2 inning, 4 ER outing @OAK. Prior to that start he hd a solid 29.9 DK point start @ COL of all places and went 6.0 innings, 0 ER and 8 strikeouts. His 3 prior starts to that he allowed 6, 1 and 6 ERs. Our model has the Padres projected at 6.2 runs and Giants at 6.0 runs. Stack the game, stack the Padres, stack the Giants and let’s have some fun!
SPORTS BETTING SECTION:
I use my DFS Cheat Sheets to find sports betting picks and plays. I usually won’t give you a direct play as I want you to decide if you want to bet the money line, run line or parlay it with something else. I’ll give you the games that jump out at me and the reasoning behind it. We have been on fire this year hitting a +600 two team parlay on Saturday with Nationals +250 and over 9.5. We followed that up with a 4-0 day. Last night I didn’t have time to write anything up but posted the “over” that I liked and it won. I actually parlayed two overs with Padres RL and Dodgers RL and also hit the parlay. LAD was tied 4-4 and then scored 2 in the 10th for a cover and Padres squeaked by with a 2 run win. It was a good night when I felt like crap. Let’s look at what I have on tap for today!
GIANTS / PADRES OVER 9.0 RUNS – Vegas has this game at 9.0 runs and our model has this at 6.2 vs. 6.0 runs for a 12.2 run total. I LIKE IT! If this game is 4-4 then you are getting a “push” at worst. These teams rank #1 and #2 in our L10 game power rankings so we are going to have some offensive firepower tonight. Padres are 2nd in runs per game, 1st in team batting average, 2nd in OBISO and 2nd in wRC+ all over the last 14 days. Giants are 4th in runs per game, 2nd in team batting average, 2nd in OBSIO and also 2nd for wRC+. Both teams how lower than average team K rates at 22% and 19%. Padres faced Trevor Cahill who owns a 5.98 ERA and allowing a .273 batting average to opponent hitters. When he gets shelled then we get to tee off on the 23rd ranked bullpen with an xFIP of 5.45! My god that is horrible. Giants get to face Chris Paddack and the reason this line is 9 and not 9.5 or 10 is because of Paddack. Giants are red hot right now so I don’t expect them to suddenly stop hitting and get shut down. Paddack was a rock star last year but this year holds a 4.75 ERA with a 3.71 xFIP and allowing a .270 batting average. In 43 team Abs by the Giants against Paddack they are hitting .279 with 2 HRs. Paddack is coming off a start where he gave up 4 ER in 4.2 innings but prior to that start he had a stellar outing in COL going 6.0 with 0 ER and 8 Ks. Then his prior 3 starts he gave up 6, 1 and 6 ERs. I like the OVER here. I don’t mind a small play with Giants money line +180 parlayed with the over. If the Giants win this game WILL GET OVER the total. I don’t see value in laying -185 on the Padres vs. a team that is 8-2 in their last 10 games and 15-5 in their last 20 games and running hot. I just hope both teams score a shit ton of runs and I can’t stop watching in the 5th inning because the game is 5-5.
DODGERS -200 OVER ARIZONA – This one is the usual play here as the Dodgers are a much better team as they rank 7th in our L10 game power rankings and hold the #1 bullpen. Facing an ARI team that is giving up on the year with a 15-29 record, lost 5 straight and 1-9 in their last 10 games. If you read the DFS portion you’ll know that Mad Bum has been getting shelled giving up 2, 6 and 7 ER in his last 2 starts and those only combined for 10.1 innings. Dodgers are 9-2 vs. LHP on the year. Even after Mad Bum is out ARI holds the 25th ranked bullpen with an xFIP over 5.00, do we really need to write anymore on this? Dustin May is decent with an ERA of 2.88 and allowing a .232 batting average but either way LAD can lock the game down with the bullpen. I’ll likely lean run line for a straight play as I don’t bet game -200 straight up.
BALTIMORE +230 over NYY – First hear me out because people are going flip when they see that I’m making a play against their NYY. With +230 odds you only need this game to win a small percentage of the time. NYY are 3-7 in their last 10 games and 6-14 in their last 20 games. BAL isn’t a powerhouse but they just beat COLE last week with a score of 6-1. They loss to the NYM last time out 7-6 in a tight game and their prior 4 games they won beating NYM 11-2, NYY 5-1, NYY again 6-1 and NYY 6-3. They beat Tanaka and Cole in two of those. NYY won against TOR 7-2 but prior to that they have only scored 1, 7, 1 and 1 runs. You don’t have to bet this straight up at +230 but I’d mix the +230 into a small parlay and hope to get lucky. I will point out that NYY are 8-14 on the road but they return home where they hold a 14-7 record. BAL ranks 4th in our L10 game power rankings and NYY are 27th. I’m sure not going to lay -260 on NYY right now.
MIAMI +100 OVER PHILLY – Our model has this game as MIA winning 5.0 vs 4.7. So we have this as a close game but with Miami pulling it out. MIA ranks 18th and PHI 15th in our L10 game power rankings. Philly has been a hotter team but the bottom of the lineup is rough. This is going to come down to pitching because the bullpens are garbage ranking 28th for MIA and 30th for PHI. Jake Arrieta is coming off a great start of 7.0 innings with only 2 ER and 7 Ks but his prior start he only lasted 1.1 innings with 7 ERs and 0 strikeouts, so which Arrieta are we going to see? If it’s the ladder MIA could blow the doors off this game early! I will point out that Corey Dickerson is 6 for 14 off Arrieta and Matt Joyce 7 for 21 and Miguel Rojas 5 for 14. In 83 team Abs they are hitting .337 off Arrieta. Sandy Alcantara is in a much better spot in my opinion. 2 starts ago he got roughed up a little giving up 5 ER to Tampa Bay in 4.0 innings but his last start and two prior were great. He is coming off 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 8 strikeouts @TB so he got his redemption. His 3rd and 4th recent tarts were a combined 11.2 innings, 2 ER and 11 strikeouts. He also just faced PHI on the road on 7/24 and went 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 7 strikeouts.
Thanks for reading,
Haze