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MLB Breakdown - Tuesday 9/8!


MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

MLB Blitz continues into this Labor Day week. I took my kids to school today for their 2 on and 3 off beginning so that was exciting and I’m on PTO all week to get ready for NFL and the Week 1 CheatSheet!

PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:

WALKER BUEHLER – Today I’m going to give you a high, mid and low cost pitcher to run lines around. There is a lot of variance for pitchers on the slate today but these are the 3 that are jumping out at me right now. Buehler has 21 and 35 DK points in his last two starts and I’m going to look for at least 3x upside out of a pitcher. Those two starts combined for 11.0 innings, 1 ER and 17 strikeouts. ARI is projected for 3.5 runs per vegas and our model has them at 3.6 runs. Walker Buehler has faced this projected lineup for a total of 93 team Abs and they are only hitting .215 off him with a 29% strikeout rate. ARI is cold right now ranking 25th in our L10 game power rankings, 30th in runs per game and 28th in wRC+, 30th in team batting average at (.195). Walker for the win!

ANDREW HEANEY – Heaney is my mid tier pitcher. He is coming off 2 fantastic starts putting up 29 and 36 DK points. Those combined for 14.2 innings, 1 ER and 16 strikeouts. If I can fit Walker/Heaney today that is where I’m going but for GPPs will drop down and use some Sixto if I can stack some stud hitters. Heaney has a great matchup vs. TEX who vegas is projecting at 3.8 runs and I’m projected at 3.6. They rank only 26th in our L10 power rankings, 29th in last 14 runs per game, 29th in OBP+ISO and 30th in wRC+ with a 23% team strikeout rate.

SIXTO SANCHEZ – Talk about consistent this guy has 18, 32 and 14 DK points in his 3 starts and he is only 6200. That is 3x, 5x and 2x value giving you a solid floor and a good punt. So far he has 19.0 innings, 5 ERs and a solid 19 strikeouts. Sixto has a touch matchup against the Braves who are running red hot right now and putting up almost 100 DK points per game as a team. They are 5th in our L10 game power rankings so use him with caution he is far from a lock but worth the risk in a GPP.

STACKS TO CONSIDER:

When stacking a team look on the cheat sheet for the cost per player for a stack and then compare out model with our projected team runs. If Vegas has a team projected at 4.9 runs and we have them at 6.7 that is a good team to consider. Also consider the bullpen rankings so you know what you are facing when the pitcher leaves the game. We rank all the bullpens so you can quickly see if you are facing the #1 bullpen or the #25 bullpen. Also consider team history vs. pitcher. We combine all the BVP data in our Daily Stacks tab and total it so you can see how many hits, strikeouts and home runs have been against a certain pitcher.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX vs. JOE MUSGROVE (19th Bullpen) – I want to start this stack off looking at Joe Musgrove. He is coming off 1 start after his return from the IL and he went 3.0 innings and gave up 2 ER with 4 Ks. That’s not terrible. His prior two starts he had 9.0 innings (combined) and gave up 8 ERs. Vegas has the CHW projected at 5.0 runs and our model has them at 5.2. Joe is holding down a 6.62 ERA with a 1.64 whip and allowing a .269 batting average. Last season he struggled slightly more vs. LHH so if you want a one off hitter you can look at Nomar Mazara (3000) who is 5 for 14 (.357) with 2 HR off Joe Musgrove and built around him.

SAD DIEGO PADRES vs. CHI CHI GONZALES – Chi Chi hasn’t been terrible this year and was decent last year but I have to stick with these Padres. They got shut down last night with a last minute pitching change. They still rank #1 in our L10 game power rankings, 5th in runs per game, 2nd in team batting average and 4th in wRC+ over the last 14 days. Chi Chi (that still sounds weird typing it out) has an ERA of 5.00 with a 1.56 whip and allowing a .294 batting average. His K9 rate is up from 6.6 last year to 9.0 this year but that is in limited innings.

COLORADO ROCKITES vs. MIKE CLEVINGER (16th Bullpen) – So this one is basically dirt cheap Dollar Store pricing for a stack against a struggling pitcher and a mid-tier bullpen. The top 5 man graded stack on our sheet is only 3720 per player! You have Story (5400), Arenado (5200) and Blackmon (5400) and then everyone else is 3500 or less. Clevinger last year had a nice 2.71 ERA and allowing a low .209 batting average. However, this year his xFIP is 4.85 and allowing a .265 batting average and that is which is slightly lower than average BABIP of .293. In his last two starts he has 12.0 innings, 4 ER and 8 strikeouts. Now in those 12 innings he did manage 15 hits so it’s not impossible for them to score 3-5 runs and a couple more on that bullpen.

Thanks for reading,

Haze

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