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MLB Buy Low & Sell High Hitters & Pitchers through April!



BUY LOW & SELL HIGH Hitters & Pitchers from CheatSheetPros!

Before we dive into looking at the players I wanted to hit on the main stats we are going to focus on. Yes there are several you could compare but today we are going to use BABIP (Batting Average for Balls in Play) and we are going to look at xFIP (this is an indicator of what a pitchers ERA “should be”) and their LOB% (Left on Base % - also known as strand rate). If I pitcher has an ERA that is far off from their xFIP we can tell if they are going to trend up or down. Also if a player has a BABIP that is really high or really low it is likely to normalize in the future and we can use that information to profit on those players or buy low on other players.


BUY LOW HITTERS:

Jesus Aguilar – Still holding a decent 11.1% walk rate with a high 22.2% strikeout rate his BABIP is one of the lowest at .173. This WILL come up in the future so he should be able to get back on track. For a guy that hit 35 bombs last night you can likely get him for nothing right now in a trade and sit on him!

Jose Ramirez – Holding a 10.3% walk rate, low 13.1% strikeout rate he has a BABIP that is only .179. He has started to heat up since Lindor came back into the lineup and he started swiping some bases so you better move fast if you are going to try to get him on the cheap. Jose Ramirez is a solid first round player that was sluggish out of the gate if you can get him BUY HIM NOW!

Joc Pederson – I’ve started to see him get dropped in some league which is shocking because he has started off hot. He has a 11.3% walk rate and 18.6% strikeout rate and his BABIP is only .185. If you see him dropped anywhere I would snatch him up and ride him!

Jesse Winker – I’m not going to spend much on him but his BABIP is .189. People were high on Winker coming into the year so if you were one then I would look at buying him on the cheap. I’m not a fan with his 8.2% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate but his BABIP will definitely come up.

Anthony Rizzo – His BABIP is at our threshold of .200, he also supports a low 16% strikeout rate and a nice 14.2% walk rate. If you can get him from the owner at a discount now is the time as the Cubs are sure to get hot this summer and you have to have a piece!


CONSIDER SELLING HIGH HITTERS:

Tim AndersonWalk rate of only 2.2%, strikeout rate is 18.9% and his BABIP is a whopping .462! This pains me to say this but if you can move him for a 1st or 2nd round pick to someone else in your league I’d consider it. I tried moving him for Lindor before he got back but the guy didn’t bite. Tim Anderson is red hot right now and one of the top SS in the game that is 5 tooling across the board. If you could move him and get a Jose Ramirez or package another player and get Lindor I’d jump on it. People go crazy for the “hot player”. I think he has a good year but he can’t keep up that BABIP number that is off the charts.

Elvis Andrus – 7.8% walk rate / 19.4% strikeout rate and a .429 BABIP. Don’t know what you could move Andrus for but if someone sends you an offer I’d consider it based on his BABIP numbers. Just wanted to put him in here because he is constantly discussed.

Christian WalkerSo the season long team that I’m crushing people with has Tim Anderson and Walker so this pains me to put these guys on here! Walker has a BABIP of .400 with a whopping 27.6% strikeout rate, eeekkkk! Guy is stealing bases and hitting HR and in a good spot. If you can “upgrade” let someone else ride his BABIP down and sit on that high strikeout %. (Note: I picked him up off FA so I’m likely sitting unless someone wants to pay the premium!)

Cody BellingerAbsolutely on fire right now, BABIP is .397 with a low 11.2% strikeout rate. If you can package Bellinger and another player go after YELICH! Bellinger will have a good year but if your team is lacking he is the perfect player to sell to get a couple solid players to fill in any holes you may have! If he keeps this up pitchers are going to stop throwing to him and just walking him!


BUY LOW PITCHERS: (I’m looking at ERA vs. xFIP along with some other stats to determine my buy low or sell high players.)

SONNY GRAYSo before I posted this I sent a trade for Gray and he declined it, blah! Gray has a whopping 11.3 K9 rate with a low 6.1% BB rate. He has faced some tough teams and came out decent. He has a 3.65 ERA but his xFIP is a nice 2.68. He has also been allowing a .283 BABIP which is good and does hit either extreme.

JAMES PAXTON – Love this guy! I was all over him in my season long leagues and I think I own him in all of them. He has a 13.2 K9 rate, 7.1% BB rate and supports a solid 3.38 ERA and his xFIP indicates it should be closer to 2.93. His BABIP numbers allowed is a .355 so that is really high. That only means he will get better going forward and that number will come down. He has a strand rate of 73% which is in the middle of the pack.

G. COLEWhopping 13.4 K9 rate and a super low strand rate of 55% he has a 4.71 ERA. This is a little mis-leading and his xFIP indicates he should be closer to 2.59! That is a huge gap! He also has a low BB rate of 8.1% and BABIP of .299. He is going to get better as the year goes on and get stronger as a starting pitcher. If you can get someone to bite grab him now so you have him for the rest of the year and playoffs!

HIN-JIN RYU – You might be able to get him cheap as most people picked him up late in the draft or off the waiver wire. He has a microscopic 1.9% BB rate and a 10.9 K9 rate. He has a 2.96 ERA with a 2.24 xFIP number. His one red flag that came out is a 96.9% strand rate! Yikes!


CONSIDER SELLING HIGH PITCHERS:

SHANE GREENE – My word this guy was picked up in auctions for $2-$4 and he is crushing the saves category and putting up solid numbers. However if you can sell this guy then SELL – SELL – SELL! His allowed BABIP is only .138. That means his ass has been very lucky and he is going to get blasted SOON! His strand rate is a whopping 92.1% - that number is crazy high for a closer! His ERA on the surface is a whopping 1.38 and people are eating that up but his xFIP indicates he is closer to a 3.49 pitcher. DET isn’t going to win that many games if you can move him and upgrade to a better closer who is struggling I would do it in a heartbeat!

Chris Paddack – I love this guy and he is fire right now! Take note thought his BABIP allowed is only a .138 and that is going to come up. His strand rate is 80.3% and on the surface he supports a 1.67 ERA. His xFIP indicates he is closer to a 3.79 pitcher. If you can move him with another player go after COLE or one of these other studs!

Mike Minor – On fire this year he is allowing a low BABIP of .204 and has a 3.21 ERA on the surface. However his xFIP indicates that number should be closer to 4.95 and he has been “lucky” so far this year. Strand rate isn’t terrible around 78%. But if you can package him with another player and make an upgrade I’d feel good moving Minor.

Trevor Bauer – I’m sure people will lose their shit when they see him on the consider selling high. His BABIP is .222 which isn’t bad but it will definitely come up. His strand rate is 88% which is higher than average and he has a whopping 1.99 ERA on the surface. His xFIP indicates he is closer to 3.94 and that 1.99 has been on the side of “lucky”. If I could move Bauer and get Cole or Paxton/Gray I’d jump all over it.


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