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MLB DFS Breakdown for July 28th from CheatSheetPros!


MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!

RECAP: Had a solid day yesterday with my cash game lineup. I had a $4 cash for $40 with a 5 man LAA stack and Cole/Matz on DK. Value pitching continues to be solid and just finding the right stack!


PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:

WALKER BUEHLER (10,600) – Coming off a solid 38.75 DK points he went 7.0 innings with 11 Ks and no ER. However that was vs. a horrible MIA team. In his last 8 starts he has a 53, 41, 38.75 and 34 DK point outings giving him the best ceiling of the expensive pitchers today. ERA of 3.23 and xFIP of 3.34 he allows a .221 batting average across the board. Solid pitcher.


AARON NOLA (9600) – If you need to save a grand I don’t mind Nola who has been pitching well. 3 of his last 4 starts he put up 23+ DK points giving him a good floor and the 3 starts prior to that he was 31+ so he has a good ceiling. Solid BVP of 123 Abs vs. Philly and they are only hitting .236 off him with a 22% strikeout rate. Nola has an ERA that goes from 4.56 on the road to 3.03 at home.


MID TIER PITCHERS:

WADE MILEY – Last 4 starts between 15-23 DK points. GPP only for me as he does struggle a little on the road but maintains a solid allowed batting average. I like Miley but use with caution, team BVP is only 24 Abs but they are hitting .458 off him.


ALEX WOOD – Worth taking a shot here as he just tossed 6 innings of 1 run ball at AAA before being activated.


KEVIN GAUSMAN – Has been horrible after a hot start this year but coming off a 30.75 DK point start vs. WASH going 7.0 / 1 ER and 8 Ks. GPP only has he has been negative in 2 of his last 4 starts but they were in early June before he hit the DL.


CHEAP PITCHERS:

JASON VARGAS – Dirt cheap today and coming off a 30.5 DK point start that was 4.6x value. His last 3 starts he has gone 30, 16 and -2. GPP shot vs. a struggling PIT team. PIT ranks 23rd in our last 10 game power rankings. Vargas also has a better home ERA of 2.68 vs. his road ERA of 5.03. The good on Vargas is that he allows a sub .244 batting average across the board and we look at vs. LHH, vs. RHH, @ Home and Away.


PETER LAMBERT – Priced at only 5500 on DK you only need 11 points for 2x. He is much better on the road (obviously) and coming off 16 and 12 point starts. He does have a 33 DK point outing on June 6th which would be massive upside. His struggling starts came vs. LAD and HOU (tough teams). Home ERA of 7.61 but this is Colorado so I’m going to give him a break and he is on the road today and his road ERA is a decent 3.63 with a 3.03 xFIP. Those are solid road numbers.


STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:

CLEVELAND – Hitting .287 over the last week and 8-2 in their last 10 games Cle is rolling right now. They are 6th in our L10 game power rankings and they have faced Duffy a total of 128 times and hitting .305 off him with a lower 16% strikeout rate. Carlos Santana is only 4100 today and 15 for 33 off him.


MINNY vs. Covey – Covey is a horrible pitcher and this will be a chalk stack today but I think I’m going to pass. Hear me out. MIN have been monsters at home but on the road they are just an average team with a wRC+ of 106.6. Covey who I can’t stand holds a 6.04 ERA but his road ERA is 8.17 and his home ERA is a much better 3.63. He is only allowing a .247 batting average at home and a 1.21 whip. His BVP history is solid with 49 plate appearances vs. MIN they are only hitting .204 off him. I hope MIN blasts him today but for GPPs I’m going to let someone else ride this train as it is an expensive, chalky stack and Covey would surprise. If we can get other people on a chalk stack that doesn’t pan out that is great for us!


Several other stacks are just sitting in the middle for me. Nothing jumping out that I love. CLE, HOU, MIL, CHC, CIN, COL, TB and PHI are all in the same boat for me.


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Haze

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