MLB & NBA "Prize Picks" & Props for Thursday, June 1st, 2023!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
After the long weekend I wanted to get some plays out today for the NBA finals game #1 and show people what to look for on the NBA & MLB CheatSheets! I made several updates to the MLB which you can see below!
JUNE MLB CheatSheet Updates > https://youtu.be/hnQ30qa-R_Y
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PRIZE PICKS FOR THURSDAY!
Two plays jump out at me on the MLB Prize Picks tab and those are 1) Ryan McMahon over 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score and 2) Hunter Greene over 6.0 Strikeouts. Now you need to understand what I'm looking for so you can find the other plays hidden in the cheatsheet. Ryan McMahon is averaging a whopping 19.2 fantasy score over the last 5 games and that is a different of 11.7 fantasy score points than his line so that should jump out at you. Second, he is facing Zach Davies who is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA so that should also slap you in the face and make you want to dig into him further. The next thing I would check is his BVP history and stats vs pitcher handedness. Hunter Green has a whopping 11, 10 and 8 strikeouts in the last 3 games and also has an average of 8.0 strikeouts per game over the last 5 games which is 2 strikeouts higher than his Prize Pick line of 6.0 meaning 5 and less gives you a loss so 6 is even a push so we like that. Now see the yellow arrow he is facing a team that has the 6th lowest K% so the matchup isn't great but that is built into the line at 6.0.
Kevin Gausman is one that I'm really considering in a same game parlay today but PrizePicks has a tight line. He has a great matchup facing a team with the 28th highest K% over the last two weeks and has been over his line of 7.5 in 3 of the last 4 games so don't mind it and the upside is there. If it was 7.0 I'd be all over it, but 7.5 is tight so I'll likely go to DK where I can get over 5.5 and over 6.5 and lay some juice.
Hunter Green Game Logs - Quick Tip!
Make sure that when you find a player you want to use that you look at his last 7 game logs on the cheatsheet. Here you can usually find out if he has faced this team recently and how he did against that team. Looking at his strikeouts I'd give him a range of 7-10 as a range of possible outcomes and then look at the PrizePicks line. Here we see a line of 6.0 so I like taking the over as his range of outcomes is well over that number giving us a high possibility of going over.
Let's dive over to NBA and Jamal Murray over 41.5 fantasy score is just glaring at me. Here you can see he has a 100% hit rate over the last 5 and 80% hit rate over the last 10 games. His last 5 average shows a fantasy score of 54.2 which is a whopping 12.7 points higher than his line. I like to find plays that have a high difference than the line so we have some cushion. Nikola Jokic is always a solid play but we can see he has a difference of only 3.5 and 8 on his props but Murray gives us a difference of 12.7 so I'd lean to Murray.
Caleb Martin has been in every NBA playoff bet I have made, specifically his 2+ and 3+ 3PM shots made. I can get a good line on DK at 2+ to start off a same game parlay and we can see he has 4, 4, 2, 2, 4, 3 and 3 over his last 7 games. If you can get 3+ you are usually at plus money but haven't checked it today. I'm sure PrizePicks will have a 2.5 line on it and I'd lean to the over if you only have access to Prize Picks. Miami should be down and playing catch up which should lead to more Caleb Martin beyond the arc shots. I will have a same game parlay on Twitter/Facebook today for the NBA games and I guarantee he will be in it. I'm also impressed with his 10 and 15 rebounds the last 2 games giving us a look at his Points + Rebounds + Assists prop line at 24.5 but the 5, 4, 3, 4 and 4 score me a little in the prior games.
I would look at something like this and gobble up that free square on Jokic!
BONUS SCREEN SHOTS FROM THE NBA AND MLB CHEATSHEET:
Hopefully you can blow these up and look at them and find some plays!
SAME GAME PARLAY - FOR MY $20 BONUS BET: