QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I hope everyone has a great holiday weekend. I'll be out for a couple days getting in some R&R time in a non-sports betting legal state so might be kinda of quiet for the weekend! We have an amazing week specifically in our "Same Game Parlays" hitting a +4600, +570, +350 and several other smaller ones that were plus money! We also tested out 5 leg round robin parlays (3 teamers) and did a HR, RBI and Runs one and hit 3/5 on the HR, and 4/5 on the other two. The HR odds were so high that was a 15x profit and the other two were between 3.6x and 6x total bet ROIs. Love the cheatsheets and it's almost unfair how fast you can breakdown a game and start plucking plays out of there! I will be adding some new features for MLB next week as I'm on vacation all week!
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SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
GAME #1 - SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS OVER MILWAUKEE BREWERS
What we are focusing on in the above screen shots is that we have a 21% betting advantage on the SFG. I don't always bet the ADV plays but it helps point me in the right direction for games to dig into. In this case, I love Logan Webb as we can see his last 2 starts he has allowed only 1 ER across both of them which combined for 13 innings pitched. Looking at Corbin Burnes he allowed 5 ER and 3 ER in his last two starts so he is not the Corbin Burnes from last year so I lean to Logan Webb as the better starter. You can also compare the xFIPs to give you a better idea of what their ERA "should be" and we can see Logan Webb is a 3.00 which is great and Burnes is higher than his ERA of 4.41.
Next, I want to look at the bullpens because we want to know what happens after the starter comes out of the game. This might points us in the direction of betting a "First 5 inning" bet or taking the "Entire Game" line. In this case we see a huge advantage for SFG as their bullpen is 4-1 with an ERA of 0.56 over the last two weeks while MIL is sitting at 0-1 with a 5.33 ERA. If you don't want to dig into the numbers just look at the RANKS and you see SFG is #1 and MIL is #25.
Now we have looked at the starting pitchers and the bullpens so we want to dig into the TEAMS and see how they are doing over recent games. Are they HOT? Cold? Struggling? Here we see that SFG is scoring 5.8 runs per game but that is mainly because of the 15 run game last night. MIL is only at 2.6 runs per game scoring only 1 and 0 runs in their last 2 games.
We can also check here on the main tab and see that MIL is 4-6 over the last 10 while SFG is a whopping 8-2 over the last 10. This will also breakdown recent games so you can see how they have been doing.
GAME #2 - HOUSTON (RUN LINE) OVER OAKLAND
Let's do the same thing we did on another game so you can get the hang of this! I'm going to highlight this into the sections we discussed above and talk about them now that you have an idea of our game plan!
PITCHERS - Framber Valdez is fire coming off a complete game shut out and Hogan Harris is a rooking with only 0.1 innings pitcher and that 0.1 did not go well so clear advantage to Framber Valdez! BULLPENS - 8th vs. 27th with ERA's of 3.29 vs. 6.00, clear advantage to Houston. TEAMS - HOU isn't great at only 3.8 runs per game over the last 6 but OAK is even worse at only 1.8 runs per game and over the last 6 games they have yet to score over 2 runs! (Same game parlay leg anyone?)
PLAYER PROPS / SAME GAME PARLAYS:
Posted this on Twitter where I send and TON OF FREE PICKS! I won't breakdown the individual picks but come on now we have been smashing these!
I'm not going to get tied up in a side with this series but feel like these legs have a high probability of hitting no matter who wins or the game outcome!
Here is my "Risk Free" same game parlay that I posted in the chat a few minutes ago. When digging through the NBA cheatsheet Derrick White has been getting hot over the last 3 games. What really jumped out at me was his 3 point shots made with 6, 3, 3, 3 and 3 over recent games so 3+ was plus money cranking this up to +360!
INDIVIDUAL PLAYER PROPS:
SPENCER STEER PROPS are HOT!
The pitching matchup isn't as great facing Jameson Taillon but he is 0-3 and in his last two starts allowed 6ER and 4ER. I don't know which prop I'll go over but the H+R+RBI is always a safe choice. 1+ RBI is always plus money. Josh Jung was my guy yesterday and his 1+ RBI was +185 that we put in our round robin and he had 3 hits, 2 runs, 1 RBI for 5 total bases!
BRICE TURANG UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-145)
This is a little juicy but don't mind it when we are mixing and matching. This guy is facing a solid pitcher in Logan Web with a rock solid bullpen behind him. Turang is projected to bat 7th (not confirmed) and he is only 2 for 20 over the last week and 7 for 39 over the last two weeks. So he is ICE COLD! (Jesse Winker is another struggling hitter I was looking at but he is usually batting in the top 4 so prefer taking someone lower in the lineup who has less support to knock them in if he does get on base.)
PRO TIP: When you find a struggling team facing a good pitcher and you want to target some UNDERs just look at the GRADE vs. Pitcher Hand or the AVG Fantasy Points. When betting UNDERS you want guys in the bottom part of the lineup as they are likely to have 1 less at bat that guys in the top 3-5 spots!
JACE PETERSON UNDER 0.5 H+R+RBI (+105)
This one is a little risky because 1.5 is a better number but Oakland is the other team I wanted to target an "UNDER" on. Jace Peterson projected to bat 8th vs. a solid pitcher with a good bullpen and he is 2 for 20 (.100) over the last week with 0 runs, 0 RBIs, etc.
PRIZE PICK TABLE:
I'm not going to dive deep into Prize Picks today but wanted to show you the table with the highest hit rate players over the last 7 games. The benefit of checking this table is that if we are looking at pitcher strikeouts we can see the opponent team strikeout percentage and if it is a hitter then we can see any batter vs. pitcher history. A play that jumps out just by looking at this sheet that I would consider digging into is:
KYLE FARMERS OVER 0.5 STRIKEOUTS - He has averaged 1.6 strikeouts per game over the last 7 games putting up 2, 0, 2, 2, and 2 over the last 5 and we only need 1? Chris Bassitt has a K9 rate of 7.5 and is pitching well so like taking that over 0.5.
DAILY FANTASY TEAM STACKS:
We have kinda slid off much of the DFS talk except for in the chat group but wanted to let you know I'm still dabbling in it! WAS was a huge profit for me last night because they were cheap! See the table at the bottom of this screen shot which breaks down the cost per hitter to determine what you have available. Here you can see WAS is still only 2900-3300 per HITTER and over the last 3 games they are scoring 7.7 runs per game and batting .327 as a team. Brady Singer just gave up 5 ER vs. DET in his last start. This "STACKER" tab is my go to for finding cheap DFS stacks or high upside DFS stacks as it will point me in the right direction of games that I can dig into!
HIGHLIGHT HITS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS!
Nailed it! +4600 in a same game parlay-x we banked a monster!
Smashed a +350 same game parlay last night as we loved those NATIONALS facing Jordan Lyles!
TWITTER & Chat Exclusive pick was a NO BRAINER putting up a +124 payout for 3 pitchers that had virtually NO CHANCE to logging a WIN based on the opponent team, opponent pitcher and bullpens they were up against!
Round Robin MONSTER as we did 3x legs and hitting 4 of 5 creates a profitable payout!
We used the 50% bonus on this incase we hit a 5/5 it went from 100:1 odds to over 150:1 odds and we almost got there!
Jung & J.D. got there quick but Aaron Judge let us down from a complete SMASH! Was still fun and exciting and will have several of them up next week as I'm on vacation all week!
Here is the other round robin we posted yesterday for the RUNS SCORED and almost got the 5/5 for over 50:1 odds!
Still hitting 4 of 5 was beautiful profits!
If Aaron Judge could of hit home Volpe it would be been a double 5/5 sweep and I would of went nuts!
These are posted on TWITTER for FREE! Why are you not following!
Good Luck & have a good weekend!
Haze!