MLB Pitchers & DFS Stacks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Hopefully, you read that article last night and got a stack in with those NYM who dropped a whopping 14 runs! Austin Gomber was one of our favorite pitchers and was the 3rd highest value pitcher on the slate so I’m going to consider that a win! Let’s look at the main slate today and see if we can catch some more lightning in a bottle!
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
VEGAS PROJECTED RUNS & thoughts:
NYY 5.5 RUNS – Don’t mind it but they will be chalky as they are projected a half run higher than any other team. NYY are only scoring 3.4 runs per game L14 days so don’t mind a fade if you are playing a large field GPP.
MIN 5.0 RUNS – MIN is also only scoring 3.9 runs per game L14 days but they are dirt cheap as the 5 highest priced hitters you can stack up for less than 4,000 per hitter. Don’t hate it but for large field GPPs you need to be contrarian.
BOSTON 4.6 RUNS – Boston has scored 4.97 runs per game at home but only 3.8 over the L14 days and they are crazy expensive at 4800 average per hitter for the top 5 guys. Zack Greinke has also been a stud on the road with a 1.50 ERA and allowing a .175 average. Boston ranks “Ice Cold” in our MLB Cheatsheets so don’t mind a fade here, let someone else jump on this and take a shot, I prefer Houston.
HOUSTON vs EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ
HOU is 8-2 L10 games and BOS is only 5-5. Looking at current form Houston is #1 in our custom L10 power rankings and 2nd in runs per game over the L14 days at 5.3 while Boston is 18th and 23rd putting up only 3.8. Houston grades as “HOT” and Boson is “Ice cold” right now from a DFS perspective. We have 4 hitters for Houston grade out 90 or higher which is fantastic. The 1-3 hitters are 4600-5000 but after that it drops off drastically so you can really mix and match this stack and get it as cheap as you want or load it up. Yuli Gurriel (4000) is my favorite hitter right now and a great one-off in your other stacks. He is batting .335 with a low 7% strikeout rate vs. LHP and his recent DKP is great putting up 12, 13, 22, 9, 10 and 20 over recent contest. E-Rod’s last 4 starts he has allowed 18 ERs in 19 IP.
OAKLAND vs MIKE MINOR
Vegas has Oakland projected at 4.4 runs so I don’t think this will be a chalky stack. OAK is 16-8 vs. LHP with a wRC+ of 115.1. This stack is CHEAP as you can get 5 guys for around 4,000 per hitter for the high end. 3 guys grade out over 90 and they are Mark Canha (4800), Chad Pinder (4200) and Matt Olson (5000). I think you can take the 1-5 hitters since this isn’t going to be chalky. Mark Canha is 5 for 13 and Pinder is 5 for 14 off Mike Minor. Minor has been a decent pitcher but his xFIP and ERA are both over 4 and he has allowed 4 and 5 ER in 2 of his last 4 starts. With 2 good starts and 2 rough starts the stack is cheap enough I can get two stud pitchers with it so taking a shot.
PITCHER BREAKDOWN:
ZACK GREINKE – Priced right in the middle of the pack as the 6th most expensive pitcher on DK he is only 7800. He isn’t going to strikeout a ton of people as you can see from his 6.5 K9 rate but he can go several IP and keep the runs down to a minimum. Greinke has 42 IP on the road and his stats jump off the page for me with a 1.50 ERA, 0.74 whip and allowing a .175 batting average. He also has 27, 24, 12 and 34 DKPs in his last 4 starts which is hitting 3x value with 4x upside.
TREVOR ROGERS – His K9 rate is 10.6 and he is facing a team that has a 27.1% strikeout rate on the road and scoring only 2.46 runs per game on the road and 3.3 over the last 14 days. 4x is a stretch but it’s definitely a possible outcome. His last 3 starts are 15-16.5 DKPs for 1.5x value but he has 3 in the 30’s in his last 10ish starts.
MAX SCHERZER – He is the highest priced pitcher and likely one of the safest on the board so I love him for cash games. He has put up 33, 28, 26, 22, 27, 41 and 39 over his recent starts so you are getting 2x as a floor and pushing 3.5x which is solid.
SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
HOUSTON (+100) vs EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ
MLB Custom Model: +7% edge on Houston
HOU is 8-2 L10 games and BOS is only 5-5. Looking at current form Houston is #1 in our custom L10 power rankings and 2nd in runs per game over the L14 days at 5.3 while Boston is 18th and 23rd putting up only 3.8. E-Rod’s last 4 starts he has allowed 18 ERs in 19 IP. He just faced this HOU team on 5/31 and went 4.2 IP giving up 6 ERs. Zack Greinke has his last 4 starts tossing 31 IP and giving up only 7 ERs and 4 of those were in one game against the LAD and the other 3 starts were just 1 ER allowed. If you look at who the pitcher faced Greinke had tough opponents facing @TOR, SDP, LAD and @OAK.
MIAMI (-215) vs. CHI CHI GONZALEZ
MLB Custom Model: +8% edge on COL
Don’t be worried about the “Model” as this does not factor the home/road splits so it’s something you have to dig into. COL is 6-4 L10 games but they are only 5-23 on the road with a wRC+ of only 58. MIA has not been great and only 2-8 L10 games but Trevor Rogers is a fricking stud! He has a 1.97 ERA in 68.2 IP with a K9 rate of 10.6 and allowing a low .211 opponent batting average with the #5 bullpen behind him. COL has a bullpen ranked dead last giving up almost a .270 batting average and Chi Chi is getting the spot start and holds a 4.84 ERA but even worse 6.33 ERA on the road and allowing a .290 batting average. MIA has not been great but his is one of the better matchups they will see. To give you an example COL scores 5.76 runs per game at home and only 2.46 on the road. I won’t lay -215 straight up so look at a “run line” play OR parlay it with another game you like to lower your risk.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze
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