MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Baseball blitz for me over the next two weeks that started last night. I ran only Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito with a full fade on Cole and had a 50% return on my buy ins. My DFS stacks were so-so but my pitching anchored it down for me. Also hit another Shane Bieber over on his strikeouts and the over in the Philly game!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
AARON NOLA – Nola is expensive tonight but I can mix him into some of my cheaper stacks. He has 3 of his last 4 starts crushing value and 1 dud. He is coming off a 27.55 DK point start @ WSH going 7.0 with 2 ER and 8 Ks. He is going to face them again tonight so expect a 2x floor and 3x upside. His other two stellar starts were 33 and 38 DK points and I won’t to point out they were both at HOME where he is tonight.
ZACH PLEASAC – After Nola I’m going to drop down to this pricing tier as the other guys don’t have the upside, tough matchups and more risk without the ceiling. Pleasac faces a tough KC team that is stubborn and even beat Shane Bieber last night in a tight game. Zach has at least 15 DK points in every start this year (4 of them) and his last 3 were 28, 19 and 38 DK points. What is the most impressive thing for me is that most recent start of 27.90 DK points was @ CHW and they are red hot right now. He went 6.0 innings with 0 ER and 7 Ks! He also faced them and put up 38.2 DK points going 8.0 innings with 0 ER and 11 Ks on 7/29. Wow! He has a floor of 2x value and a ceiling pushing 5x value! People will go to Patrick Corbin at 10,200 but can he give you a 5x ceiling? That would be 50+ DKPs, the answer is NO and it’s not even close. Corbin has put up 10, 20, 0, 19 and 21 in his last 5 starts so his CEILING is just over 2x, no thanks!
FRAMBER VALDEZ – My favorite pitcher on the slate tonight! Framber has made me some money this year on betting his over strikeouts. I posted that I loved his over 4.5 number at plus money for his last start and people gave me static and said it wouldn’t happen. He dropped 11Ks and put that money in my pocket EARLY in the game! Framber is going to have a price increase going forward and I’m shocked his only 8100 tonight on DK in this matchup. He has 5 starts this year and ALL of them have 20+ DK points. They look like this: 29, 24, 21, 27 and 27! That is sitting around a 3x value floor and pushing 4x upside. His strikeout upside gives him a strong floor. In his first 4 starts he gave up 1 ER or less and then inhis last start vs. LAA he gave up 4 ER but still managed to push 30 DK points with 11 strikeouts!
IAN ANDERSON – Only 6600 are you kidding me?!?! He was 8100 in his last start and that was facing the NYY. I don’t understand the DK pricing but whatever let’s play some Anderson! In his major league debut vs. NYY he had a no hitter going into he 6th inning and ended up putting up 25.1 DK points going 6.0 – 1 ER – 6 Ks. I mean if he gives you 12-13 DK points that is 2x value and a decent put, that equivalent is Corbin giving you 20-22 points. If he pushes 18-25 points you are looking at 3x-4x value. Solid punt!
FADES FOR ME:
MASAHIRO TANAKA – Everyone will see the price tag and stick him in lines so his ownership will be decent tonight. His last 3 starts are 17, -2 and 7 DK points. He just faced TB and gave up 5 ER in only 4.0 innings and only managed 2 strikeouts. He doesn’t have a start this year over 21 DK points so he is a fade for me in a tougher matchup!
JULIO URIAS – 9700 are you crazy DK? He has 5 starts this year and 3 of them are below 9 DK points. He isn’t going to be in the game long enough to hit value. I don’t like him for GPP or cash games.
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
CLEVELAND INDIANS VS. MATT HARVEY – Harvey has given up 4 and 3 ER in his last two starts and those only lasted 2.2 and 3.0 innings. KC has the 21st ranked bullpen after he is out and I’m sure the exhausted all their solid relievers last night trying to hold down the win. In 5.2 innings this season Harvey has given up 7 ER, 9 hits, and 4 walks. CLE is also priced relatively low at 4080 for the top 5 man stack on our cheatsheet. Jose Ramirez (5400) and Lindor (5300) are expensive but after that every play is 4200 or less in the projected starting lineup so you can wrap it up or down. Personally I like the 2-6 projected hitters of Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Santana, Reyes and Naquin.
HOUSTON ASTROS VS. LUIS GARCIA – Garcia has only made a couple appearances this year and out of the pen so his stats are minimal. His DK price is only 4000 so they can’t expect much from him. TEX has the 22nd ranked bullpen behind him so Houston should score some runs. They are 3rd in runs per game over the last 14 days and 6th in OBP+ISO, wRC+ and team batting average. Priced really fair at 4000 per player on average for the best 5 man stack. If you skip over a cold Jose Altuve (5000) you can really get a low cost stack.
TAMPA BAY VS. MASAHIRO TANAKA – As you can see above from my fade on Tanaka he was just tagged for 5 ER in 4.0 innings and only 2 Ks when he faced the Rays on 8/18. They have 142 team plate appearances against him so they are used to seeing his pitches and they are scoring around 5.1 runs per game over the last 14 days. Vegas has this projected at only 4.1 runs so this should be LOW OWNED! We have them going for 5.8 runs on the MLB Cheat Sheet. The stack is also DIRT CHEAP coming in at 3920 per person for the top 5 man graded stack! Rays fall into our “Red Hot” category.
ATLANTA BRAVES VS. RYAN WEBER – We have to spend some money somewhere so I’m giving you a stack on the mid-upper side that comes in at 4660 per person for the top 5 man stack. Braves are 3rd in wRC+ over the last 14 days and 4th in team batting average at .290 over that span. Weber is coming off giving up 3 ER in only 2.2 innings @TOR.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS. MICHAEL PINEDA – Pineda is making his season debut from a PED suspension so I’m betting on some rust to get knocked off before he gets back into his groove. White Sox are 1st in L10 game power rankings, 2nd in runs per game, team batting average, OBP+ISO and wRC+ over the last 14 days. They are on the high side of 5040 for the top 5 man stack but you can get it down to the mid-upper 4000 range with a few pivots. I like some mid-lower priced pitching today so this is an easy stack to fit. Luis Roberts (4700) is putting up 17 DK PPG over the last week and 13.5 over the last two weeks. I would fade Tim Anderson or Jose Abreu here to lower the cost. Abreu is 1 for 13 off Pineda but has been red hot lately.
SAN FRANCISCO VS. JON GRAY – Looking at the Coors game tonight the Rockies rank 29th in the last 10 game power rankings and everyone has a pretty low ceiling. Giants rank 4th in the last 10 game power rankings and top 7 over the last 14 days in wRC+ and runs per game. Priced at 4560 per player for the top 5 man stack includes Mike Yastrzemski (5800) who has cooled off putting up only 4.6 PPG over the last week and is 2 for 11 off Gray. If you fade him you can lower the cost and make it very affordable. Brandon Belt (4700) is 4 for 8 off Gray with NO STRIKEOUTS, Evan Longoria is another player smashing recently!
Thanks for reading,
Haze