MLB Sports Betting Picks & DFS Stacks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES: (DFS Stacks)
STACKING is a must in DFS. I prefer to stack 4-5 hitters from one team and then 2-3 from another team for a “mini stack”. You can do 4/4 or 5/3, etc. The idea of stacking is when one hitter is on base and the guy behind him hits him in then you get points for the run scored and also the RBI from the other hitter. I base my stacks on cost per player and how chalky it may or may not be. Here is what I’m looking at today.
PITCHERS TO PLAY:
JACOB DEGROM – Degrom is coming off 41 DKPs so that is between 3.5x – 4.0x his current salary and no other pitcher on the slate it close to his value. If he can get some run support and a “W” that would be fantastic. DeGrom is a 3 pitch pitcher with a fastball (74%), Slider (14%) and change up (12%). COL is horrible so far this year and ranks 11st vs. fastball which isn’t terrible but 25th and 23rd vs. the slider and change up. COL is 3-4 playing at home with a wRC+ of only 72 and .236 batting average. I like DeGrom today and the wind is blowing in at 7 mph. He is the best pay up option today.
YUSEI KIKUCHI – How many people have been burned by HOU this last week and their less than average performance? Kikuchi’s main pitch is his cutter and he throws it 39% of the time and HOU is 21st vs. the cutter. Only 35 team Abs but only hitting .200 off him so far. Priced at only 7200 on DK and 8800 on FD he is a good mid-tier pitcher to target.
ANDREW HEANEY – Only 6800 on DK and coming off 32.5 DKPs where he went 6.0 innings, 0 ER and 9 Ks. One thing I am watching today is MIN and their .287 batting average vs. LHP. Nelson Cruz will tell the story as he is 5 for 17 off Heaney with 3 HRs but also 6 Ks.
CHEAP STACKS TO CONSIDER:
I love running stupid cheap stacks and loading up with two stud pitchers. I want to start by looking at some cheap DFS stacks for GPPs!
TEXAS vs. JORGE LOPEZ
Lopez is coming off a start where he only lasted 4.0 innings and gave up 7 ERs. In his 8.2 innings this year he has allowed an ERA over 11 and a .306 batting average. The bullpen coming in behind him is also bottom 10 in our bullpen rankings. Looking back at last year in 39 innings he had a 6.69 EREA, 1.49 whip and .297 batting average allowed. He also allowed a .386 average to RHH. TEX isn’t good against the fastball (30th) and Lopez throws it 69% of the time but they are good against hit curve (18%) and change (13%) where they rank 2nd and 10th. STACK IS ALSO CHEAP! 1-5 projected hitters look solid as the bottom half of the lineup is less than stellar. Nate Lowe, Nick Solak and Joey Gallo are the 3 I need in the stack.
DETROIT vs. FRANKIE MONTAS
Montas is a good pitcher so this is a GPP only dart. You can stack 5 TIGERS around 3600 per hitter which is bottom of the barrel pricing. Montas allowing a .351 average this year, mainly he has been a little unlucky with a huge .407 BABIP. The bullpen behind him ranks 26th so it’s not terrible. Montas should have success but DET ranks 1st against the splitter and he throws it 16% of the time and they also rank 10th vs. the slider that he throws 21% of the time. Not a horrible GPP shot if you can get a DeGrom/Scherzer up top.
PIRATES vs ADRIAN HOUSER
This stack is only 3200-3300 AVERAGE for 5 hitters. That is almost MIN pricing on DK. I’ll stack anyone that cheap and take a shot! This allows you two stud pitchers and you can load up studs in your off spots fill ins. Houser allowing a .286 average, 1.60 whip and the 27th bullpen behind him so it’s not like we are stacking against DeGrom here. Houser throws his fastball 63% of the time which PIT ranks 18th, they are a horrible 29th vs. the slider but he only throws it 6% of the time. His curve (18%) is his second most thrown pitch where they rank 5th against it. Take a shot here!
PAY UP FOR STACKS:
BOSTON vs. DYLAN CEASE
I can’t stand Cease and can’t really explain why. In 9.1 innings he has a 1.61 whip and .265 allowed average. He has a solid bullpen behind him but Boston is hot right now. Last year Cease tossed 58.1 innings with an xFIP of 5.87 and 1.44 whip. He was able to get lucky and strand several runners. Boston could rip him apart as they have a 141 wRC+ against RHP this year with a 6-1 record. You will pay 4700-5200 average for a 5 man stack but they rank #1 in our last 10 game power rankings. (NOTE: Something I’m watching is this new pitch type rankings that I’m putting into my write ups. Cease is a fastball (50%) and slider (34%) pitcher and BOS ranks only 22nd and 23rd. I don’t know if this will be a factor but if they struggle it’s something I wanted to note that we can watch going forward.)
MID-RANGE PRICING STACKS:
MILW BREW CREK vs. JT BRUBAKER
Brubaker is a decent pitcher. In 9.1 innings this year he has a 1.93 ERA and allowing a .200 batting average so hoping most people don’t see this stack. Vegas also has implied runs for MIL at 4.3 which is low for this large slate. MIL ranks 4th in our last 10 game power rankings. Looking at stats from last year he tossed 47.1 innings with an ERA of 4.94 and allowing a .262 average. Good but not great. Breaking down the LHH/RHH it reveals that he struggled mightily vs. LHH. He allowed a .287 batting average to lefties vs. only .232 to righties. He also had a drastic WHIP of 1.66 vs. only 0.26. His xFIP was 4.90 to LHH and 3.27 to RHH. So what is MILW projected to roll out tonight? 5 lefties in Jackie Bradley, Yelich, Shaw, Narvaez and Peterson. Outside of Yelich who is 5600 on DK everyone else is 4400, 4100 and in the 3K range.
CLEVELAND vs. JEFF HOFFMAN
Average is 4250 for the top projected 5 man stack. CLE ranks 6th in our last 10 game power rankings. Jeff Hoffman has a xFIP of 4.06 and 1.29 whip and .257 average so he has been decent in his 9.1 innings this year. Bullpen behind him is 19th so less than average. Last year in 21.1 innings he had an ERA over 9.00 and allowed a .352 average with a 1.92 whip. Wind blowing out at 6mph and his poor stats from last year I don’t mind taking a shot here. Vegas has them projected at only 4.4 runs so should be low owned. Hoffman throws his fastball (58%) where CLE ranks 13th, slider (16%) and CLE ranks 2nd. CLE does struggle vs. the curve (ranked 30th) and he tosses it 14% of the time.
Free Group Link: www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/
Premium Group Access: www.CheatSheetPros.com
Twitter Follow for DFS plays & Sports Bets: https://twitter.com/CheatSheetPros
*CheatSheets are posted in our FREE Facebook group every Thursday if you want to try them out and play with them! Our members get the sheets everyday for only $14/month or $35 for 3 months. We strive on keeping our price down & teaching you how to find the key plays!
Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze