MLB Pitchers & DFS Stacks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES: (DFS Stacks)
STACKING is a must in DFS. I prefer to stack 4-5 hitters from one team and then 2-3 from another team for a “mini stack”. You can do 4/4 or 5/3, etc. The idea of stacking is when one hitter is on base and the guy behind him hits him in then you get points for the run scored and also the RBI from the other hitter. I base my stacks on cost per player and how chalky it may or may not be. Here is what I’m looking at today.
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
CASEY MIZE – He has put up 17.9 DKP or higher in 5 straight starts hitting a high of 29.65. In those starts he has only allowed 3, 1, 1, 1, and 2 ER and has 6, 7, 6, 7 and 4 Ks. Also, his 29.65 DKP game was @SEA where he went 7.2 with 1 ER and 7Ks and gets to face them tonight but he is at home. 6800 is a cheap price on DK for him after putting up 4x value on the road against this same team.
AUSTIN GOMBER – In 4 of his last 5 starts he has put up 21+ DKPs and hit a high of 31.6 and he has now allowed more than 2 ER in any of those starts. He is only 6,000 on DK and that is near the bottom in terms or pricing. In those 5 starts he also faced a tough Padres team twice combining for 11.1 IP, 1 ER allowed and 13 Ks so that’s pretty impressive! Bullpen sucks and run support is unlikely with only 4 Colorado road wins this year but he is cheap so love his price!
TAIJUAN WALKER – He might be a little sneaky tonight since 2 of his last 3 starts he only has 2.6 and 10 DKPs. He has faced the Padres and Braves twice in his last 3 starts so those are brutal matchups! Prior to those 3 he has 21.55 DKP vs. BAL going 7.0 IP with 1 ER and then 35.15 DKP @STL going 7.0 with 0 ER and 8 Ks. He is only 8600.
FADE GERRIT COLE – Cole is a stud and he will also garner ownership because he plays for the NYY and the average person just looks at the same and locks him in. He is a whopping 11,200 on DK and that is crazy for his recent outings. He just faced Tampa and went 5.0 IP and allowed 5 ERs. His prior start vs. DET he went 6.0 with 1 ER but only had 17 DKPs. To get 3x value on 11,200 you need 33.6 DKPs and he has 4 straight starts well under that mark. I’d like to have a shot at 4x-5x for a ceiling game but for Cole that means 44-55 DKPs and while that is possible I think it’s better to go value and fade him tonight.
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
NYM vs. MATT HARVEY
In his last 6 starts he has not made it into the 5th inning lasting only 3, 3, 4.2, 1.2, 4.1 and 4.0 and has allowed 1, 5, 5, 6 and 7 ERs in those starts. In his last 12.1 IP he has allowed 17 ERs. NYM are “picking it up” as of late going 7-3 in their L10 games and 11-9 in their L20 games. I grade the players in my MLB cheatsheet and anything 90-100 is great, over 100 is excellent and 80-90 is solid and below 70 is just well… not that exciting. NYM have grades on the 1-4 hitters of 77, 75, 77 and 84 so I would build around them. This isn’t a stack to back the NYM but to smash a struggling Matt Harvey. NYM are 6th in runs per game L14 days, 7th in HRs and 3rd in team batting average so there is hope!
TAMPA BAY vs PATRICK CORBIN
For some reason unknown to me Vegas has Tampa projected at only 4.2 runs in this game. Tampa is 7-3 L10 games while WAS is 3-7. Corbin now has 5 straight starts under 9.7 DKPs. In those 5 starts he has lasted 21.1 IP and allowed 16 ERs, 6 BBs and 12 Ks. Patrick Corbin is a good pitcher he just isn’t there yet this year so let’s pick on him. Corbin is a LHP and great vs. LHH but vs. RHH he is allowing a .315 batting average and xFIP of 4.65 and Tampa has a bunch of RHH to roll out. The “projected” lineup has 7 of 9 all from the right side of the plate and the one LHH batting in the 3rd hole is Austin Meadows who is on fire right now. If you wanted to fade Meadows at 5800 you could get a cheap stack in and definitely be contrarian to other Tampa stacks as the average user is most likely going to have Meadows in there.
LAA vs. BRAD KELLER
LAA have a wRC+ at home of 121. 9 which is 38.4 points higher than on the road. Their wOBA is 55.4 points higher going from .288 on the road to .344 at home and team batting average jumps from .233 to .260. They also rank 6th in our L10 game power rankings putting up 4.7 runs per game over the L14 days. You can stack 5 Angels of a modest 4360 price tag which is in that target range. Brad Keller is allowing a .306 batting average with a 1.71 whip in 55.2 IP and that is CRAZY HIGH! Home, Road, vs. RHH and vs. LHH all his batting average allowed stats are ALL OVER .288. Justin Upton (4000) has been on fire putting up 18, 5, 25, 18, 20 and 16 DKPs over his last 6. Shohei Ohtani (5900) is also a fireball putting up 25, 13, 13, 21 and 31 DKPs and from there add in your favorite hitters.
BOSTON vs. JAKE ODORIZZI
Boston is 7-3 L10 games and 13-7 L20 games and they are 17-13 at home and 25-17 vs. RHP. They are on the more expensive side but Odorizzi has been struggling. He just faced Boston and went 3.0 giving up 3 ER with 3 BB before coming out, his prior start was decent going 5.1 IP with 1 ER and the two prior starts he allowed a combined 9 ER to Seattle and DET. J.D. Martinz if 5 for 12 with a HR off him and Xander is 10 for 32.
CHEAP “PUNT” STACK:
DETROIT TIGERS vs. CHRIS FLEXEN
For me it’s all about “Stack Cost” and if I can stack a team under 4,200 average per hitter for 5 guys then I’m definitely going to look into it. DET ranks 8th in our L10 game power rankings and while they are not exciting they are only 3080-3360 per hitter for a 5 man stack and that is DIRT CHEAP and allows you tons of flexibility. Flexen is allowing a .305 batting average and .372 on the road with an xFIP north of 4.50. Any stacks should be build around Jonathan Schoop (DK 4000) who has a custom grade of 99 right now (highest on the team) and has hit 44 and 35 DKPs in his last 6 games giving him a monster ceiling. Flexen had a solid start against a bad TEX team going 7.0 with 0 ER and 6Ks but the start before and after he allowed 5 ER in 6.0 and then 8 ER in 1.2.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!