MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
What a solid night in the return to MLB after my busy work week with both of my favorite pitchers smashing value! I did majority of cash games last night to get my feet under me and it worked well. Today we dive into some MLB main slate action and then this afternoon I’m going to dive back into NFL!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
TREVOR BAUER – The best pitcher on the slate today in a semi-tough matchup vs. the ChiSox. He is coming off 33 and 39 DK points and priced at 10.8k on DK. In those last two starts he has combined for 14.0 innings, only 1 ER and 22 strikeouts! CHW have faced him for 124 team Abs and they are only hitting .226 off him with a 27% strikeout rate. Bauer is holding a .171 ERA, 0.81 whip and allowing a 0.157 batting average.
CORBIN BURNES – Burnes is a solid money saver at only 8000 on DK. In his last 4 starts he has put up 10, 11, 7 and 10 strikeouts giving us a solid floor. In those last 4 starts he has combined for 23.2 innings, only allowed 1 ER and put up 38 strikeouts. Wow! Even if he only puts up 16 DK points he won’t kill your lineups but if he pushes 35-40 then that is GPP winning production. KC has been solid as of late but still putting up a 25% K rate over the last 14 days.
KWANG HYUN KIM – Kim has 4 appearances this year and tossed 87, 85, 80 and 83 pitches. Those were good for 24, 20, 17 and 22 Dk points and priced at only 7500 today on DK. He has combined for around 24 innings and not allowed an ER yet! Matchup is great vs. PIT who ranks 28th in our L10 power rankings and they are only scoring 3.0 runs per game over the last 2 weeks which ranks 30th and holding a wRC+ of only 65 which ranks 27th.
KRIS BUBIC – The above 3 SPs are the ones I’m focusing on today for the main slate but if you need a punt then Bubic comes in at only 6600 on DK giving you some flexibility. He has 20, 17, and 19 DK points in his last 3 starts giving you around 3x upside. In those last 3 he has combined for 17.1 innings, 5 ERs and 18 strikeouts.
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
L.A. DODGERS VS. CHI CHI IN COLORADO – This stack is expensive but great for cash games and plenty of upside built into the pricing since we have some flexibility on our pitchers today. You have a red hot team in the Dodgers who rank 5th in our L10 game power rankings, 4th in runs per game over the last 14 days and 5th in wRC+ at 126 and they are IN COLORADO which is a bonanza for runs! Now who are they facing? In comes Chi Chi Gonzales and the 28th ranked bullpen, EVEN BETTER! So how has Chi Chi done recently? He is coming off a start @ SDP of -7.65 DK points where he lasted 0.1 innings and gave up 4 ER! He even walked 3 batters while recording only 1 single out. LAD smashes Chi Chi and the pen today. Don’t over think it, use the pitchers above and mix in some LAD.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. JUSTUS SHEFFIELD – So hear me out because I like Justus as a pitcher and he has been pretty decent giving up only 4 ER in his last 14.0 innings and giving him team 13 Ks. The bullpen behind him ranks 29th with an xFIP of 5.69, whip of 1.53 and they are allowing a HR/9 of 1.76. If the Padres can get to him early they could explode. Padres rank 2nd in our L10 power rankings, 7th in runs per game over the L14 days and holding a low 20% K rate. This could be lower owned with focus on Coors and if you pick only one of the top two hitters you can get this stack around 4000 per player.
BALTIMORE VS. CHARLIE MORTON – So here is your PUNT STACK and they are cheap coming in around 3200 for the top 5 man stack. That is DIRT CHEAP Wal-Mart red tag pricing for a stack. It’s not great but for GPP if you want to play two stud SPs I like it. They are 20th in our L10 power rankings and 19th in our runs per game over the last 14 days at 4.8. Vegas has them projected at a low 3.6 runs and we have them in our model at 4.9. I can’t imagine anyone is looking at BAL today for a stack vs. Morton. Morton has 8 points in each of his last two starts and combined for 9.1 innings and 6 ERs with 7 Ks. He isn’t un-hittable by any means. Cedric Mullins (2400) is projected to lead off and dirt cheap, Jose Iglesias is (3600) projected at #2 and then DJ Stewart projected in the #3 hole is only (2400). Watch the starting lineup but right now I like the projected 1-4 hitters with Renato Nunez or Rio Ruiz or Pat Valaika if you want to save some money.
Thanks for reading,