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MLB Sports Betting Picks & DFS Pitchers/Stacks for Friday 7/30/21!


MLB Sports Betting Picks & DFS Stacks from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES: (DFS Stacks)

STACKING is a must in DFS. I prefer to stack 4-5 hitters from one team and then 2-3 from another team for a “mini stack”. You can do 4/4 or 5/3, etc. The idea of stacking is when one hitter is on base and the guy behind him hits him in then you get points for the run scored and also the RBI from the other hitter. I base my stacks on cost per player and how chalky it may or may not be. Here is what I’m looking at today.


STACKS TO CONSIDER:

When stacking I am going to reference the “cost per hitter on average” across a 5 man stack. To get an idea if they average over 5,000 per hitter that is really expensive and you need value pitching options. If they run 4500-4800 per hitter that is very build-able but you need a value pitcher or some value players to fill in. The target it 3800-4200 for a stack because that is dirt cheap and gives you plenty of room to stack up stud pitchers and/or stud hitters in the gaps. Lets jump in and take a look.

CINCY REDS VS. CARLOS CARRASCO (13TH BULLPEN)

This stack is just too cheap to pass up at an average price per hitter of ONLY 3900! Yes, Carrasco is a stud but making his 2021 season debut how many innings can we expect out of him? I could see him struggling and getting pulled in the 2nd or 3rd inning. Joey Votto (4700) is on absolute fire right now! In his last 6 games he has 8 HOME RUNS and 14 RBIs and put up no less than 20 DKPs in his last 5 games. He is a must own in a Cincy stack. Jess Winker (4400) has 12+ DK points in his last 5 games as well. Both of the above two players grade out over 117 on our MLB cheatsheet and they should both be in your stack. Kyle Farmer (3000) is the cheap piece I would include in this stack as he has 15, 12, 13 and 24 DKPs in his last 4 and his price is dirt cheap.


NY METS VS. SONNY GRAY (25TH BULLPEN)

This should be a contrarian stack as Vegas only has the NYM at a projected 4.3 runs and they are only scoring 3.44 runs per game at home this year and 4.3 over the last 14 days. The reason I like this stack is #1 the cost at 4100-4200 average per hitter it is in our target zone. #2 Sonny Gray has allowed 13 ER in his last two starts lasting only 3.1 and 4.2 innings. Was this just bad luck? I don’t know but the bullpen behind him isn’t great so taking a shot at a cheap stack. Pete Alonso (5400) is the guy to build around and grades out at 105 on our sheet (highest player on the team). In his last 7 games he has hit a high of 30 DKPs and coming off a 16 DKP game.


WHITE SOX VS. JEAN CARLOS MEJIA (5TH BULLPEN)

Cleveland is 8-12 in their L20 games and Mejia has allowed 5, 4, 6 and 6 ERs across his last 4 starts lasting only 6.0, 4.1, 2.2 and 4.0 innings. White Sox have been ice cold as they come into this game with a last 10 game power ranking of 28th on our MLB cheatsheet. Hoping they can knock the rust out and get something going. Stack cost is 3920 per hitter for the highest 5 graded hitters which is also dirt cheap. Andrew Vaughn (2700) is extremely cheap and has the 2nd highest ceiling on the team and highest average per game over the last 7 and last 14 days.


PITCHER TO CONSIDER FOR MLB:

MATT HARVEY (5000) – Cheapest pitcher on the entire slate and a decent “PUNT” guy to take a shot on as he has 24.9 and 18.5 DKPs in his last two starts. He has faced the Nationals and Royals and went a combined 12.0 innings, only 4 hits allowed, NO ERs and 6 strikeouts with only 1 walk. You have hitters that are more expensive! Even if he struggles and gives you 10 DKPs that is still 2x and you have plenty of capital to spend elsewhere in your lineup.


TOUKI TOUSSAINT (6900) – He has made two starts this year and they were good for 23.4 DKPs and coming off his most recent was 30.75 DKPs. What is most impressive is that he faced the Padres and the Phillies. Phillies isn’t an amazing team but he went 7.0 innings with 1 ER and 10 Ks. But the Padres have been HOT and he went 6.2 with 1 ER against them and 5 Ks. That’s pretty solid and his price is cheap! His last two starts were 3x and 4x his current salary. To compare with a stud $10K pitcher that guy would need to have 40 DKP upside. Solid option but will likely be popular.


JAMESON TAILLON (8700) – Price is getting a little high but still someone to consider. He has only allowed 1, 0, 2 and 1 ER in his last 4 starts putting up 22, 18, 14 and 33 DKPs. In those games I want to look at the teams he faced to make sure they were relevant and he faced Boston twice, Houston in Houston and Seattle. So pretty solid starts against good teams. He will likely give you a floor of 2x and 3x upside.


PATRICK SANDOVAL (8800) – The underlying numbers were always there but we hadn’t seen a ceiling game from him until his last start where he went 8.2 innings, 13 strikeouts and 1 ER with allowing only 1 hit. He has ELITE status with a 3.52 ERA, 1.10 whip and allowing a low .205 batting average. His recent starts were against MIN, SEA (x2), BAL, TB, DET and ARI so not stud teams but still decent numbers.


CORBIN BURNS (10,200) VS. LANCE LYNN (10,300) – Most DFS players will likely have at least one stud pitcher in their lineup and the choice is clearly between these two guys so I want to discuss them. Corbin Burnes has only allowed 1, 0, 2, 1, 1 and 1 ER in his last 6 starts so that is amazing! He has a 2.12 ERA with a 0.90 whip and allowing a .198 batting average over 102 innings this year. On the road his numbers are slightly better with a 1.61 ERA, 0.78 whip and 0.184 allowed batting average. He faced a tough ATL team that ranks #2 in our L10 game power rankings and scoring 5.3 runs per game at home this season. Still an elite option for tonight. Lance Lynn has only allowed 1, 1, 0, 1, 1 and 0 ERs over recent starts. His DK points haven’t been as amazing as they were earlier in the season as he is averaging only around 20 DKPs in those starts for 2x value. The matchup for him sets up perfect for tonight facing Cleveland who ranks 28th in our L10 game power rankings and scoring only 3.6 total runs per game over the last 14 days. Cleveland ranks 29th in runs per game, 29th in team batting average and 19th in HRs over the last 14 days. Vegas has them pegged as a -215 favorite tonight so he should have an easy “Win”.



SPORTS BETTING PICKS:


WHITE SOX (-215/RL -115) OVER CLEVELAND

This game has to be all over your radar with the pitching matchup. I will either parlay the money line or hit the run line for my bet. Lance Lynn at home has a 1.50 ERA, 0.85 whip and allowing a 0.169 batting average facing a team that is 21-33 against teams over .500 and that ranks 28th in our last 10 game power rankings and 29th in runs per game over the last 14 days. White Sox have been cold offensively as they rank 27th in runs per game over the last 14 days but J.C. Mejia is the guy that could let them open it up. Mejia struggles vs. LHH where he allows a .316 batting average, 1.74 whip and ERA over 9.00. He has allowed 5, 4, 6 and 6 ERs in his last 4 starts. CHW could potentially roll out 5 LHH in their lineup.


LA DODGERS (-182) OVER ARIZONA

This is more of a play against Arizona than for the Dodgers. The Dodgers have been struggling and sit at 9-11 in their last 20 games and 4-6 in their last 10. Arizona has the bullpen that ranks dead last in our custom rankings with an ERA of 4.80 and whip over 1.50 allowing a .282 batting average. I love some Zac Gallen but he is coming off a game where he gave up 7 ER in 4.0 innings to the Cubbies and 2 starts prior he faced the SFG and allowed 3 ER and 3 BBs in only 2.0 IP before being pulled. Dodgers aren’t exciting but they are picking up pieces to make a World Series run.


ATLANTA / MILWAUKEE - FIRST 5 INNINGS UNDER 4.5 TOTAL RUNS

Touki has only allowed 2 ERs in his 2 starts this year that combined for 13.2 innings and Corbin Burnes has 5 of his last 6 starts allowing 1 ER or less and the one off game he only allowed 2 ERs. Taking a unit on the F5 under here and backing these pitchers.


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Thanks for reading & good luck!

Haze