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I am off work this week so wanted to write up some plays! I'll have a massive round robin tonight and another one starting tomorrow for the PGA tourney!
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There are 7 sports betting sides that I like today but due to time I am going to write up 3 of them. There are 20+ player props that I flagged on the MLB Cheatsheet so I'm going to focus on pitching outs and a couple K props for everyone.
PLAYER PROPS:
SETH LUGO OVER 18.5 PITCHING OUTS (+150)
I typically don’t like chasing 18.5 line but Lugo has been solid this season and KC has one of the worst bullpens in the MLB right now so they need to get the most of their starts. He needs to go at least 6.1 innings to hit this bet and he has done that in 5 of his last 6 games. He faced MIN in his first start of the season and went 6.0 with only 86 pitches allowing 2 hits and 0 ERs. He has tossed 100+ pitches in 4 of his last 6 starts. At a whopping (+150) we can hit this wager less than 50% and still be profitable.
CORBIN BURNS OVER 17.5 PITCHING OUTS
Burnes has tossed 6.0 innings in 6 straight games for a 6-0 “OVER” run. He typically tosses around 92-96 pitches but he hasn’t needed anymore to get through 6IP. Boston is a tougher matchup but in 38 team ABs BOS only has 4 hits off Burnes (4/38 .105) and let’s not mention the whopping 42% K rate in those 38 Abs. Tyler O’Neill is only 2 for 14 with 8 Ks and projected to hit 3rd for Boston today. Burnes faced BOS in his 3rd start of the year (on the road) and went 7.0 innings in only 90 pitches allowing 2 hits and 1 ER. (This is juiced for a reason so I typically mix 2-3 together for plus money.)
TARIK SKUBAL OVER 17.5 PITCHING OUTS
Tarik Skubal hype is apparently real as I was not a “buyer” in my season long leagues. He is on a 6-1 “OVER” run over his last 7 games. What is impressive is that in 3 of those he only need <89 pitches to get through 6. He is coming off his one miss but it was against the Royals who tagged him for 6 hits and 4 ER. Skubal on the season is allowing a .186 BA to opponent hitters and a 0.85 whip and those are elite numbers. He has allowed 6+ hits in 3 of his last 4 but that was against the Royals, HOU and NYY. With the 25th ranked bullpen behind him DET will need to get 6 IP out of him today.
SHOTA IMANAGA OVER 17.5 PITCHING OUTS
I love this guy! Snatched him up in all my season long leagues for nearly nothing and he’s been amazing thus far. He is only on a 5-1 “OVER” run in his last 6 starts and the one miss was on the road against ATL as he his 98 pitches at the end of 5.0 and they pulled him. He is coming off just 88 pitches to reach 7.0 IP and right now is on 11 days rest since his last start was rained out. MIL has a wRC+ that drops from 119 to 92 vs. LHP and their team BA drops from .261 down to .214. Shota has a 0.84 ERA (xFIP 3.12) and 0.91 WHIP allowing a .200 BA to opponent hitters.
LUIS GIL OVER 17.5 PITCHING OUTS
This one is my least favorite of the bunch as he constantly needs upper 90’s on his pitch count to get 6.0 but he’s done in 5 straight games and has only allowed 2 total ER in his last 5 starts so they trust him. Luis Gil to record a win (+100) looks solid as he has recorded a win in 5 straight and 6 of the last 7.
SHOTA IMANAGA OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS (LIKE ALT 6+)
Cubbies on the road today so the first thing I’m going to look at when there is a high hit rate guy is that K9 rate splits. Shota has a K9 rate of 9.7 and it’s consistent across the board as you can see here: (9.8 vs. LHH, 9.7 vs. RHH, 9.9 on the road and 9.6 at home). He has produced 7, 8, 8, 7 and 7 strikeouts over his last 5 starts for a 5-0 “OVER” run and he is riding 10+ days of rest after his last start was rained out. The second thing I’m checking his the opponent’s team K% over the last two weeks. We see MIL is 19th at 22.9% so that is middle of the road and I’m okay with this. I just don’t want to see a TOP 5 with less than 19% (example would be PHI is 1st at only 16.7% and that would be a very tough spot). If we dig further we can look at LHP vs. RHP and we see MIL has a K% that jumps up to 24.2% vs. LHP and 24.9% when they are at home.
JAMES PAXTON UNDER 4.5 STRIKEOUTS
We’ve already hit this one twice in our write-ups so why not go back to it again. Paxton has a K9 rate of only 5.1 and after his first start of the year where he had 5 K’s he hasn’t hit 5 in any start. His starts look like this: 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 1, 1, 4, 5 giving him a 8-1 “UNDER” play. NYM have been striking out more so he is in a good spot to hit 5 K’s but until he does it I’m going to ride the profitable UNDER. Paxton does have a K9 rate vs. LHH that slightly goes up to 6.6 but the 3 he will face in this projected lineup have K% vs. LHP of 7%, 16% and 13%.
ALT LINES: Tarik Skubal 6+ & Shota Imanaga 6+ (-120)
SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
SAN DIEGO PARDES (YU DARVISH) OVER MIAMI MARLINS (BRAXTON GARRETT)
I don’t mind the game line but since both teams have solid bullpens (#1 & #3) then you can get a lower line taking a Padres First 5 or First 5 run line (-130) which is where I’m looking to attack. Darvish has been un-hittable up until the NYY blasted him last week for 9 hits and 7 ERs. Prior to that start he has only allowed 2, 2, 3 and 3 hits and went those 4 straight starts not allowing an ER so we will give him a break. Braxton Garrett came back and looked awful in 2 starts allowing a combined 12 hits and 11 ER in 9.2 innings before his last start where we broke out and went 9.0 innings allowing only 4 hits and 0 ER. So, we need to decide are the Padres a better lineup than the Diamondbacks? Will Garrett struggle or is he suddenly elite after one good start? I’m going to back Darvish and his consistent play as the SDP have W3 straight and MIA has dropped 3 of the last 4 games.
TORONTO (MANOAH) OVER CHICAGO WHITE SOX (FLEXEN)
I want to attack this game but not sure exactly how yet. We can go after the TOR moneyline but the juice feels a little high. We can hit the TOR run line as they have already won 7-2 and 5-1 so we can safely say that if they win they will likely win by 2+ runs so this takes us from laying (-175) down to (-105) and I like that a lot better. I am also considering a TEAM TOTAL or ALT TOTAL due to Manoah issues that you will see below. This is our 8th vs. 30th power ranked teams matching up. With the new MLB cheatsheet changes it makes TOR look pretty solid as they are 6-4 over L10, 2nd lowest K%, 6th in wRC+, 5th in RBI’s and 7th in ISO power. CWS are 0-7 over the L7 and 1-9 over the L10 and have only scored 2, 1 and 1 runs over the L3. CWS are 25th in team batting average, 23rd in K%, 27th in wRC+, 29th in HRs, 28th in RBIs and 27th in ISO power at only 0.099. Neither bullpen is good as they both are coming in as bottom 6 over the last 2 weeks. Chris Flexen is allowing a .279 batting average and 1.50 WHIP on the season through 42.2 innings. He has allowed 5-8-7 hits in his last 3 along with 4-7-3 ERs. Ironically, Flexen @ HOME has worse stats where he allows a .290 average and 1.63 whip and his xFIP goes up almost 2 entire runs, eeek! Alek Manoah is the biggest pain in my ass as I drop him and pick him up over and over throughout the season. I don’t trust him, I don’t like him but it is what it is. His first start was 6 hits and 6 ER on the road and then he had 2 home starts that were great allowing only 5 total hits and 0 ER in 14 innings. His last start he went back on the road vs. DET and got up 5 hits and 4 ERs. So, we only have 22.2 innings on him and 4 starts. 2 ROAD starts where he got killed and 2 HOME starts where he was elite. Today he is on the ROAD against the worst team in the MLB with a bottom 5 team batting average, HR rate and ISO power rate. I will say TOR has solid BVP history going 22 of 70 (.314) vs. Flexen and check the low 17% K rate and 6 different guys have hit a HR off Flexen in the past. TOR Team Total might be the way to go!
CLEVELAND (LOGAN ALLEN) OVER COLORADO (TY BLACH)
I may just attack the CLE ALT TEAM TOTAL in this spot. The line (-148) and run line (+100) are both fair and with CLE’s 4th ranked bullpen I don’t care who starts for CLE. CLE is 9-1 over the last 10 games and they have covered the run line in 6 of those 9 wins. CLE is on fire right now ranking 4th in our power rankings, 5th in wRC+, 3rd in HRs, 2nd in RBIs and 3rd in ISO power. Plus, they are rock solid vs. LHP where they have a wRC+ that jumps from 100 to 124. COL has been doing decent and putting runs on the board but that bullpen ranks DEAD LAST in the MLB for us with a 7.63 ERA (4.97 xFIP) and the HR/9 is a whopper at 1.68 and BB/9 is 4.84. That means the COL bullpen walking almost 5 hitters per 9 innings and giving up almost 2 HRs per 9. Logan Allen vs. Ty Black is even as both SP’s have xFIPs over 4.00 and WHIPs over 1.40 but slight edge to Allen. I’m backing CLE here due to the huge bullpen advantage and their offensive fire power. This would be a good spot to take CLE live if they get down 1-3 runs early and take a shot at plus money as that COL bullpen can’t hold them down! Jose Ramirez is scorching hot right now if you are doing any player props or SGP’s consider him. Facing LHP he has a .328 average / 13% K rate which is crazy LOW and .430 wOBA and .311 ISO power. To dig further in the last 14 days Jose Ramirez has a .362 average, 14 runs, 7 bombs, 19 RBIS and a stolen base. In that span he is 17 of 47 with 50 Hits+Runs+RBIs.
As always I post most of my actual sports betting tickets and round robins in our Facebook Chat Group for premium members! I do my best to make this the most inexpensive service around at less than 50 cents a day.
Good Luck,
Haze
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