QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I'm going to switch things up the second half of the summer and work on my articles and breakdowns. Today I'm going to show you what our "Sports Betting Report" looks like. I'll give you my thoughts and plays to help you pick the games you want to bet on.
Monday & Tuesdays are usually really busy days for me so I work on posting my picks around 4 days a week between Wednesday - Sunday but most of the time it depends on a work schedule. Yes, I will be opening back up the "Sports Betting" section of the website to put the picks on the website for those that don't have access to the Facebook group and Facebook chat. The Facebook CHAT is the most valuable tool because there are several people that post picks on sports that I don't even cover and they are good at what they do!
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SPORTS BETTING REPORT: SATURDAY, JULY 6TH, 2024
MLB CURRENT PICK STREAK: 12-4 RUN (75%)
MLB PICKS YESTERDAY: 1-1
BOSTON (JOSH WINCKOWSKI) (+165) OVER NYY (GERRIT COLE)
Going against Cole isn’t usually a profitable play but these NYY are falling apart. They are 2-8 over the last 10 games and have lost 4 straight games. Josh Winckowski isn’t terrible and has only allowed 2 total ERs in his last two starts that combined for 11.0 innings and 9Ks. BOS is cooking right now and riding a 5 game winning streak and check that bullpen 5-0 with a 3.55 ERA over the last two weeks. BOS is 19 for 62 (.306) vs. Cole with 9 home runs and one of those players has 7 HOME RUNS! At a whopping (+165) you only need to win this 38% of the time to make it a profitable play and we think this is closer to a 50/50 game so I’d rather grab the PLUS MONEY rather than lay (-200). Definitely worth a look!
SAN FRAN (KYLE HARRISON) VS. CLEVELAND (LOGAN ALLEN) OVER 8.5 RUNS
Kicking myself for not posting the HOU/MIN over yesterday with two solid power ranked teams and they dropped a ton of runs and cruised over the 8.0. These two aren’t as powerful but I think they can get there today. Logan Allen is on my fantasy team so I’ve followed him closely all season with his 5.75 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and allowing his (.294) AVG has been brutal. His last 2 starts he only lasted 4.1 and 3.0 innings and gave up 6 and 9 hits and 3 and 6 earned runs. Those totals are a gross 7.1 total innings, 15 hits allowed and 9 earned runs. Kyle Harrison returns and he’s not quite as brutal but has allowed 1, 3, 4, 4, 3, and 3 earned runs in his L6. His last 2 road starts he allowed 8 hits and 3 runs and 6 hits and 4 runs.
SAN FRAN A DOG?
I’m shocked to see SFG open as a slight dog. SFG are 7-3 over the last 10 games with a bullpen that is 5-2 over the last 14 days allowing a really low 0.72 HR/9 during that span. CLE is 3-6 over the last 9 games with a decent bullpen that is 3-1 but allowing 1.76 HR/9 and walking 4.2 per 9. CLE lost 4-2 last night to these Giants and then 2 of 3 to a horrible CWS team and then went 1-3 vs. KC.
WHITE SOX SURGING?
Garrett Crochet is an “elite” pitcher and will get traded to a contender this year so don’t get excited White Sox fans. He has only allowed 2, 0, 3, 1, 1, 1, and 2 earned runs and remember this kid is a rookie so that is great. He has 101.1 innings pitched, 3.02 ERA and an even better xFIP of only 2.33 (elite) with a 0.93 WHIP and allowing a (.197) BA. Now he gets to face a MIA team that is 0-5 over the last 5 games and 2-7 over the last 9 and they also rank dead last in our power rankings. In our power rankings we look at wRC+, HRs, RBIs and ISO power and they rank 30th, 30th, 29th and 30th. CWS aren’t amazing but they have a 5-3 run over the last 8 games putting up about 5.0 runs per game and check (5) of those hitters have 7+ RBIs over the last two weeks. Yonny Chirinos has allowed 9, 3 and 8 hits in his 3 starts. This will be a lower scoring game with two solid bullpens but going to side with the surging team with the elite pitcher on the mound.
PHILLIES AND BRAVES ATTACK POSITIONS
Both bullpens are freaking rock solid so if you are looking for an OVER attack the first 5 innings because innings 6-9 they could go into lock down mode. I want to like the OVER 8.5 but the first 5 over looks a little better. I’m shocked PHILLY is a slight dog. PHI sits at 5th in our power rankings vs. 28th of ATL but ATL games average 8.2 total runs and they are usually close games while PHILLY puts up about 5.6 runs. My favorite two plays depending on your risk are: 1) Both teams to score 1+ runs in the first 5 innings (-215) and 2) Both teams to score 2+ runs in the first 5 innings (+150). Ranger Suarez has stud like stats with a 2.27 ERA through 103 inning but his last 2 starts he has allowed 9 hits in each with a total of 10 earned runs vs. a horrible MIA and DET team so that raised my eye brows. Schwelly has allowed 4 runs in each of his last two starts vs. PIT and STL and combined giving up 13 hits in those two. Our custom model has a 10% edge on PHILLY as a slight dog.
SAN DIEGO PADRES (WALDRON) VS. ARIZONA (PFAADT) OVER 7.5 TOTAL RUNS
These two are 8th and 2nd in our power rankings and our “Main” tab shows these projected lineups are lit up like a Christmas tree with all their Hits/Runs/HRs/RBI stats. Christian Walker has ben FIRE and falls into our “HOT” category. Between these two lineups there are (3) hitters each with 5+ HRs in just the last two weeks. Matt Waldron is decent with his 3.56 ERA but that jumps to 4.15 at HOME and his allows a (.248) BA. He has allowed 3, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, and 0 ER in his last 7 starts so pretty decent with a decent bullpen behind him (12th). Bradon Pfaadt has a 4.28 ERA that jumps to a 5.03 on the road. In his last 6 starts he has allowed 4+ earned runs 3 different times and his last 4 ROAD STARTS he allowed 3 runs, 5, runs, 4 runs and 4 runs along with 5+ hits in each.
SAN DIEGO PADRES (WALDRON) OVER ARIZONA (PFAADT)
(See above write up) + SDP are 8-2 over the last 10 games ranking 2nd in our custom power rankings. Pitching edge to Padres, slight bullpen edge to Padres and they are playing at home and the line is too low for their recent success and Pfaadt struggles.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS A DECENT DOG PLAY (+110)
Surprised WAS opened as a favorite in this contest as they are 3-7 over the last 10 games and rank 24th in our power rankings and that bullpen is 2-5 with an ERA over 6.20 over the last two weeks. STL climbed back and got a “W” for us last night and they aren’t great as they only rank 18th in our power rankings and they are lacking in power (25th in ISO power) but they have won 4 of 5 games. Lance Lynn just pops off mid-summer for some reason and I think we are seeing it right now as his last 2 starts have combined for 13.2 innings, only 6 total hits and 1 total earned run. His last road start MIA tore him apart for 10 hits and 5 runs so don’t think this is a lock but worth a look. MacKenzie Gore has been great for WAS with his 3.47 ERA but this is what jumps out at me. He has allowed 1, 5, 4 earned runs in his last 3 so 2 of those he got beat up a little bit. His HOME splits has his WHIP jumping from 1.19 to 1.47 and his BA allowed from .230 to .288 and that bullpen behind him ranks 29th with a 6.21 ERA and they are allowing the most HR’s per 9 at 2.14 over the last two weeks. I’ll take a shot at the plus money because I don’t want to lay a juiced (-130) with this WAS team right now.
CINCY REDS OVER DETROIT
My least favorite play but this CIN team has been good to us so want to keep them in the write up. CIN 3-1 over the last 4 games and DET is 3-2 so both teams playing well. CIN has the bullpen edge (11th with a 3.88 ERA vs. 26th with an 0-4 record and 6.14 ERA). Hunter Green has been decent but his last 2 HOME starts he has allowed 6 and 4 earned runs so that’s a bit scary but still holding a 3.70 ERA and (.204) BA. Matt Manning has allowed 4, 3, 4 and 4 runs in his last 4 starts and just over his last 2 starts he has combined for 11.2 innings, 19 hits allowed and 7 earned runs. I wanted to take the OVER 8.5 total runs but these two rank 19th and 16th in our power rankings so leaning to CIN in the powder puff matchup between these two squads.
PLAYER PROP TOOLS FROM THE MLB CHEATSHEET:
I didn't have time to dig into the individual player props or prize picks but here are some of the tools that I use and update daily for our MLB Cheatsheets. These are great for STRIKEOUTS, EARNED RUNS ALLOWED, HITS ALLOWED, TO RECORD A WIN AND PITCHING OUT PROPS!
Good Luck,
Haze
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