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MLB Stacks & Pitchers for May 5th!


MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!

Quick Notes - Good morning everyone! Last week was crazy busy at work so I didn't get as many articles out as I had hoped. I did get a sheet update done (see screen shots) as I brought in a players fantasy points per game for last 7 days, last 14 days and their ceiling game in the last 14. I also brought in the teams runs per game over the last week and included it next to the season long runs per game. We also bought in team stats next to the pitcher for a quick look along with how those numbers rank vs. other pitchers on the slate.


STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:

TEXAS vs. Clay Buchholz – Texas is hot right now scoring 6.2 runs per game in their last 7 games (new add to our cheatsheet) and 5.8 runs per game on the season. They have 4 guys with a last 14 game ceiling over 26 DK points (Odor, Andrus, Mazara & Pence). See screen shot below on breakdown and our new adds to the cheatsheet. (If you are reading this on Reddit then they don’t allow screen shots so see the link above for full article.) Buchholz has an xFIP of 4.73 vs. LHH and 5.36 to RHH and a wOBA over .327 to both sides of the plate. He has one of the worst pitching matchups on the slate as TEX is one of the top teams vs. current pitcher hand in wRC+ (117.1), batting average (.273) and wOBA (.359). Odor is the only hitter that is cold (blue color) last 7 and last 14 days. Everyone else is in play!


KANSAS CITY vs. Spencer Turnbull – KC isn’t as terrible as they were projected to be this year. Living in KC I get a lot of KC talk on the local sports radio stations. The top 4 hitters have solid wOBA’s and Last 14 FPPG and ceiling games. It is going to be an expensive stack but we are looking at using at least 3 of: Whit Merrifield wOBA (.377), Last 14 FPPG (10.4) and L14 Ceiling (27.0), Adalberto Mondesi wOBA (.361), Last 14 FPPG (12.3) and L14 Ceiling (29.0), Alex Gordon wOBA (.395), Last 14 FPPG (10.1) and L14 Ceiling (30.0) and finally Hunter Dozier wOBA (.507), Last 14 FPPG (11.6) and L14 Ceiling (32.0). Soler is only (4100) so you can mix him in and eat up some of the high cost hitters. Turnbull has an xFIP of 4.85 to LHH and 4.01 to RHH. KC only projected at 4.1 runs today but Last 7 games they are on a 5.4 average per game.


PHILLIES vs. Anibal Sanchez – Sanchez holding a terrible 7.24 xFIP to LHH and 5.09 to RHH and a .436 wOBA to LHH and .304 to RHH. This is the least favorite of the 3 stacks but Phillies have such a strong lineup. They are semi-cold right now outside of Hoskins and Segura. Harper is only 5.2-5.8 FPPG over last 7 and last 14 days, McCutchen is 6.0 FPPG over last 14, Muto 7.3, Cesar at 5.5. But somehow they are managing 5.0 runs per game over the last 7 days and 5.2 on the year. They get a struggling pitcher so can they breakout?


PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:

Luis Castillo (9500) – He has been solid this year with 15+ DK points in all of his starts (so no duds!). He has 30 point upside with his high strikeouts and should push a 2x floor. He is facing SFG who have a bottom 5 team batting average vs. pitcher hand (.204) and wOBA (.269) and wRC+ of (65.6).


ZACH GREINKE (8400) – Priced down for tossing in Colorado Greinke has been solid outside of his first start of the year. He has 22+ DK points in every start (minus his opener) and he has faced some tough teams. In his last 3 starts he has tossed 20.2 innings with allowing only 1 ER and 18 Ks. The last time he threw in Colorado was on 9/11/2018 and he went 6.2 innings with 5 Ks, 3 ER and 0 BB for 19.4 DK points.


PITCHERS TO CONSIDER FOR GPP PLAYS IN GOOD SPOTS (5 highest team K% vs. PH):

JULIO TEHERAN – Facing MIA who has a 28.3% team strikeout rate vs. pitcher hand

NICK MARGEVICIUS – LAD striking out 26.8% of the time vs. LHP.

KENTA MAEDA – SDP striking out 26.9% vs. RHP.

ZACH EFLIN – Washington striking out 26.0% of the time.

JOHN MEANS – TB striking out a high 30.2% of the time vs. LHP.


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