MLB Stats & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Caught fire last night with those Padres last night putting up 8 ERs with a grand slam. They were so cheap on DK last night that I could get Shane Bieber (my favorite SP) and Lamet (my 2nd favorite pitcher). Both SPs were in the winning GPP lineup so last night was the night to spend a little on the pitchers. Hopefully if you are a sports bettor you say my Shane Bieber write up over 7.5 strikeouts at +108 for an easy winner as he hit 11 Ks on the night. When I checked the game he was at 9 Ks with only 78 pitches and 5.0 innings. Easy money last night!
STACKS FOR THE NIGHT:
CLEVELAND – First run through the MLB Cheatsheet and the Indians jump of the page. With 73 at bats they are hitting .356 off Fulmer with only a microscopic 12% strikeout rate AND 6 HOME RUNS! 73 Abs isn’t a ton but that is enough for me to look further. CLE has 6 guys with a wRC+ over 100 vs. RHP and they fall into he “Hot” category for recent fantasy point production. Fulmer just faced CLE in his last start on 8/16 and gave up 5 hits, 3 ERs in only 2.2 innings. CLE is cheap! You can get their highest graded 5 man stack for an average of only 4220 per person. That is cheap! Franciso Lindor is a must have in the stack as he is 8 for 20 (.400) with 4 HRs off Fulmer. Even Tyler Naquin is 6 for 9 off Fulmer.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX – Stack is cheap as the top 5 highest graded hitters are only 4200 per person. They also fall into the “Hot” category for fantasy point production. Now I will point out the “red flag” here is that their BVP has a solid 115 team at bats and they are only hitting .226 off Jon Lester so that is a little worrisome. However, in 23 innings this year he is showing a 2.74 ERA which is great but his xFIP is showing 5.39. So on the surface he looks like a great pitcher but in depth he is more average. We also want to look at the bull pen behind him and it ranks 22nd with an xFIP of 4.75 and a 1.45 whip so that is a plus for us. If the ChiSox can overcome the BVP they have some monsters vs LHP. As a team they have a wRC+ of 101.6 vs. RHP (100 is average for the league) and vs. LHP they sky rocket up to 154.9! We have them projected on our cheatsheet for 7.7 runs tonight and that might be a little high it is something to keep an eye on. Lester just gave up 5 ER in only 6.0 innings in his last start. 6 of the top 7 players in the projected starting lineup are at 8.0 FPPG or higher with 4 of them in double digits.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS – This stack is more on the higher side at 4620 average per player for the top 5 man stack on our cheat sheet. But Fulmer has been horrible this year! In 25.2 innings pitched he has an ERA of 5.96 but what does his xFIP look like? You can consider the xFIP the underlying number that is more reflective of their true performance. Well that is 6.08 so yes it is bad. If his xFIP was 2.99 I wouldn’t be looking at this but with a bad ERA and xFIP then lets look into it. In those 25.2 innings he is allowing a .302 average (ouch!). So is there any BVP we can look at for the team? YES! I’m glad you asked – in 147 team at bats they are hitting .320 off Fulmer with a lower 21% strikeout rate. Mike Trout is 12 for 33 with 5 home runs, Ohtani is 7 for 12 and even Pujols is 9 for 33 but has 3 home runs. The top 4 projected hitters in the starting lineup are hitting .500, .364, .300 and .583 with 10+ Abs. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon have wRC+ vs. RHP of 186.0 and 186.1 and should be hitting #2 and #3. I went to look at see what Fulmer did in his last start to see maybe he is turning a corner. NOPE! He gave up 3 ER in 2.2 innings vs. CLE.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS – So this is on the higher side at 4720 per person but that also includes a Mookie Betts at 6100. Dodgers vs. Jon Gray are hitting .323 through 130 Abs. They do have a higher 28% K rate but there are only a couple guys eating most of the Ks. Jon Gray isn’t a terrible pitcher but he is average. So we are focusing on the Dodgers here vs. an average pitcher. Dodgers have a wRC+ that is 31 points higher at home (129.1), their wOBA jumps 32.9 points (.350) and their batting average as a team jumps from .229 to .264 all while playing at home. Now Jon Gray is a RHP and I will note that LAD has a wRC+ vs. LHP of 82.9 but vs. RHP it jumps to 124.6. So we have a team that is great at home and great vs. RHP and facing a mediocre pitcher. There are 5 hitters in the projected starting lineup with a wRC+ over 120 vs. RHP and Mookie (218) and Seager (192) are off the charts. You can lower the cost of the stack but using guys like AJ Polluck (only 3900 on DK) and hitting 6 for 16 off Gray and on a solid 9.7 FPPG average over the last week. If Austin Barnes is catching again tonight he is only 2600 on DK and has been at 10.1 FPPG over the last week giving you solid production. He is also hitting .306 on the year too!
AARON NOLA – He is the “must own” tonight at 9900 on DK. I’m still looking at which pitchers I can fit in around him but I’m starting with Nola and then stacking and filling in from there. Nola has a 14.8% swinging strike rate this year and in 26.1 inning pitched he has a 2.05 ERA and even better xFIP at 1.94! He is also allowing a 0.65 whip and .148 batting average. His BVP number are solid as well with 187 team Abs against him they are hitting .225 with a 47% strikeout rate. Nola has put up 32.75 and 38.2 DK points in his last two starts for an amazing return of value. Oh and the 38.2 DK point stat was also vs. ATL who he is facing again tonight. In that game he went 8.0 innings, allowed only 2 hits, 1 ER and had 10 Ks! Nola for the lock!
Thanks for reading,