MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Nola crapped the bed for us yesterday after dominating the same team earlier. We had stacks of CLE who put up 5 runs in 3 innings and then Fulmer was yanked and no more scoring. White Sox exploded for us dropping 10 runs and knocking Lester out of the game after only 3.2 innings so that was a nice positive. We were also on the Dodgers and they put up 5 runs for us. It was nice to see our custom model had the White Sox at 7.7 runs and they dropped 10!
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
LOS ANGELES DODGERS – On the surface Kyle Freeland looks like he is having a solid year and he actually is but he hasn’t faced any power house teams like the Dodgers. He shows a 2.56 ERA with a low 1.11 whip and allowing a .241 batting average. He has faced HOU (who has cooled off recently) and then ARI and SF. In his last 19.2 innings across 3 starts he has given up 7 ERs. Now we look at the Dodgers who play great at home with a wRC+ of 130.9 (up from 98.9 on the road). Dodgers are 7-1 vs. LHP on the year. The BVP is what jumps out at me as the Dodgers have 110 team Abs vs. Freeland and they are hitting a whopping .336 with a low 15% strikeout rate. Justin Turner is 12 for 25 (.480) off Freeland, Corey Seager is 6 for 10 (.600) and don’t forget A.J. Pollock who is 8 for 20 (.400) with 2 home runs.
SAN DIEGO PADRES – They get to face off against Brandon Bielak today who has actually been pretty decent. He has a 1.69 ERA with a 1.13 whip and allowing a .178 batting average. He is coming off a start vs. COL where he went 6.0 innings and only allowed 1 hit but he did walk 4 batters. His ERA might be 1.69 but his xFIP tells the true story and it is 5.26 putting him a little worse than the average pitcher. He also has a really low K9 rate of 6.3. He has been extremely lucky with a BABIP of only .196 (that is batting average on balls in play). Padres stack is CHEAP! You can take the 5 highest graded hitters for an average of only 3980. When you get a stack below 4200 per person that is a solid spot and you can fit in almost any other players or pitching that you want. When you stack teams like NYY, LAD you get in that 4600-5200 per player which is hard to build around. Vegas has the Padres projected at 4.7 runs and we have them at 6.4 runs today giving you great stack value.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX – I can’t get off these White Sox! We had them projected for 7.7 runs on our cheatsheet and they dropped 10 last night. We have them at 5.8 runs today and Vegas only has them at 4.5 so I’m assuming this will be “lower owned”. They do face Kyle Hendricks who is a solid pitcher. He has an ERA of 3.31, xFIP of 3.61 and allowing a .221 batting average. White Sox are red hot right now scoring a massive average of 100.7 DK points per game over the last week. I don’t think I’ve seen anything close to that in 2020, I think the Dodgers his 89-90 average once but never 100. BVP is only 49 team Abs but hitting a solid .286 with a 20% strikeout rate. Bullpen is ranked 20th when Hendricks comes out of the game and has an xFIP of 4.56. This stack could completely flop but if they get to the pitcher early and he exits the game they could put up some runs and they are semi-cheap today. Tim Anderson hitting .366 on the year and averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game over the last week is hitting .400 off Hendricks (4 for 10), Jose Abreu is only 4200 and hitting .500 off Hendricks (7 for 14) and Eloy Jiminez only 4300 is 1 for 2 with a HR.
BOSTON RED ROX – Alex Cobb is far from a dominant pitcher and coming off a start vs. TOR where he gave up 5 ER in 6.2 innings. Boston as a team has faced Cobb 129 times and they are hitting a whopping .341 off him with a 21% strikeout rate. Boston hasn’t been the team we typically know as they are only 9-18 on the year but they have won 3 straight games and looking to build on those. J.D. Martinez is 10 for 19 (.526) off Cobb, Xander Bogaerts is 6 for 20 (.300) and Christian Vazquez is 10 for 14 (.714).
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS – They have been less than exciting so I won’t spend a ton of time but they are facing Wade Miley who has given up 10 runs in his last 5.2 innings (3 starts). Cardinals are hitting .329 off himi through 70 team Abs. Worth a look!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
MAX SCHERZER – I also want to anchor my DK lines with one stud pitcher that I believe in. Nola didn’t work out last night but I still love the play. Scherzer has faced this projected starting lineup for 198 plate appearances and they are only hitting .182 off him with a 31% strikeout rate. Well I just realized Max is on the early slate and not the main slate that I am focusing on so let’s go find another pitcher! LOL. I’ll leave this up here incase you are playing the early slate on DK.
Let me add in that this is not a great pitching slate for the main. There are very few solid options that I can find right now but here is what I’m looking at:
ZAC GALLEN – He has put up 27, 22, 17 and 23 DK points across his last 4 starts and that was facing some tough opponents. He has faced OAK, @COL, HOU and LAD. Facing LAD he went 6.0 innings with 9 Ks, HOU he went 6.0 with 6 Ks, @COL he went 7.0 and put up 7 Ks and then his most recent start was OAK going 7.0 with 8 Ks. Ks give us upside so we can give up a few runs and still rack up some points. They are also a -157 fav so if he can get the “win” that is another 4 points for him. Zac has a 2.40 ERA, 1.03 whip and .211 batting average allowed.
ZACH DAVIES – Not my favorite pitcher and I think he is a little pricey but we don’t have a ton of options. He at least has 18, 18 and 27 DK points across his last 3 starts. I always look for the toughest opponent they have recently faced and that would be the Dodgers and he went 7.0 innings with 2 ER and 5 Ks for 18 DK points. At least that is pushing 2x value. HOU is a scary lineup to face but they have been cold recently. Jose Atluva is averaging only 4 FPPG over the last week and hitting .202, Springs is batting .219 and the bottom of the lineup of Toro, Jones and Maldonado is hardly scary.
JUSTUS SHEFFIELD – He is someone that if we are looking and hoping for 2x value then I just want to go down the price list and save some money. I don’t feel confident with Davies and if I pair a cheaper guy with Gallen then I have a little more faith in a positive outcome. Sheffield started off rough this year with his first two starts giving up 8 ER across 7.2 innings but then he must of figured something out because that quickly change. He faced COL and @HOU for his next two starts and put up 29.1 and 15.3 DK points. In those two starts he went 12.0 innings and only allowed 1 ER with 11 strikeouts! Yes please! Take a shot here are only 6500 you get a great savings off the expensive guys and 2x value is only 13 DK points which he should be able to manage at a minimum. Jordan Lyles on the other side is awful so if Sheffy can get the win that is +4 points and almost an entire “x value” in return by itself!
ONE-OFF PLAYERS TO FILL YOUR LINEUPS:
A.J. POLLOCK – Only 4100 and he is 8 for 20 off Kyle Freeland and projected to hit 4th in the Dodgers powerful lineup.
JOSE ABREU – Only 4200 and he is 7 for 14 off Kyle Hendricks and just smashing right now. He has 17.0 FPPG over the last week and 10.2 over the last two weeks. He also has a ceiling of 32 DKP in the last 14 days. He is projected to hit 4th in the White Sox red hot lineup.
Thanks for reading,
Haze
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