MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
What a weekend for sports! Dustin Johnson crushes the Northern Trust, Harvick puts up 171 DK points in the Sunday race and then we smashed the slate on Saturday with several members turning large profits from the article and cheat sheet plays. I hope this helps everyone make some money!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
TREVOR BAUER – He is my favorite “upper tier” pitcher today priced at only 10200 on DK. He should be in the 11000 range so I will gladly take the discount. So how has Bauer been doing this year? That is the first thing I want to look at. He has 4 starts and in those starts he has put up 35, 37, 31 and 36 DK points. He is the only SP on the slate pushing 4x value. He just faced MIL and put up 36.5 DK points going 6.0 innings with 12 strikeouts and 1 ER. Now let’s look at MIL and see how they have been doing. MIL is 2-6 at home with a wRC+ of only 81.3 (100 is average). At home they have a massive 29.4% strikeout rate and vs. RHP they have a 27.2% strikeout rate. This gives Bauer a huge upside from the strikeouts.
FRAMBER VALDEZ – I need a lower priced pitcher to pair with Bauer so I’m looking at Valdez as one of my plays. He is my 2nd favorite SP on the slate. In his 4 starts this year he has put up 27, 27, 21 and 24 DK points giving him a good return on his 7600 salary. He just faced LAA on 08/02 and put up 26.65 DK points going 6.1 innings with 8 Ks. Last year Valdez has 29 innings on the road and had an xFIP of 5.31 – 2.10 whip and allowed a .314 average. At HOME where he is tonight he had 41.2 innings and held a much better 3.62 xFIP – 1.37 whip and allowing a .231 average. This year he has 31.1 innings under his belt with a 1.72 ERA (3.03 xFIP) and 1.09 whip and allowing a .237 average. Now let’s look at the matchup. LAA is 4-4 vs. LHP but their wRC+ drops from 116.2 (vs RHP) down to 68.1 vs. LHP and their batting average as a team goes from .252 down to .188.
BRAD KELLER – I want to give you some more options so Keller is going to make the list. He is 3-0 on the year and has not allowed a single ER in any of his 3 starts. That is 17.2 innings with 0 ER. However, don’t get excited because his BABIP is .191 and that won’t last. That is the main reason his xFIP is 4.31 when his ERA is showing 0.00. He does have a decent 0.91 whip and allowing a .140 average. I think there is some risk with Keller but he is only 6700 so the risk is priced into his salary. If you wanted to get crazy on this smaller slate I don’t mind a stack against him. I mean the 5 highest graded Cardinals are only a 3420 average salary. I like Keller but just don’t lock him into a cash lineup and only use him in a GPP. He has 25, 20 and 26 DK points in his last 3 starts.
JESUS LUZARDO – Priced at only 7400 and not many options Luzardo is going to make the cut. He is coming off a great 28 DK point start going 6.1 innings with 0 ER and 7 strikeouts. Prior to that start he got torched by SFG for -5.10 DK points going only 3.1 innings and allowing 6 ERs. So that screams GPP only incase you are wondering. His 2 starts prior to those he put up 18.5 and 18.8 DK points vs. TEX and HOU going 5.0 and 5.2 innings and 5 Ks in each. He gets to face off against TEX tonight and I’m familiar with them because I stacked that shit team last night. TEX is like a powder puff MLB team. They have lost 8 straight games and they are 2-8 in their last 10 games and they don’t have a single projected starting lineup batting hitting close to .300. You have Frazier at .256, Solak at .261 and Kiner-Falefa at .256 and everyone else is .217 and lower. Our cheatsheet has color coded marks for the players fantasy points and most of the team is “blue” meaning they are COLD. TEX has a wRC+ of 49.4 at home with a .201 team batting average and vs. LHP they have a 4-7 record with a wRC+ of 66.5 and hitting .221 with a 26% strikeout rate. Luzardo has 27 innings this year under his belt with a 3.67 ERA and 3.79 xFIP and allowing a .260 average. If his BABIP was .190-.230 I may not look his direction but his BABIP is .324 which is higher than average meaning he has been on the lucky side of things. If he is going to shine tonight is the night!
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
Stacks are touch on this main slate tonight. Most of the games are projected with lower totals and the great teams like MIN/CLE have tough pitching matchups. So there are no stacks that I love tonight so I spent more time focusing on the SPs and then you can mix and match your stacks as you see fit. Here are a few that I’m looking at.
OAKLAND vs. LANCE LYNN – Lynn is a solid pitcher and last year he had a 3.85 xFIP and allowing a .243 average so this isn’t a cake matchup. This year he has a 1.37 ERA and allowing a .146 average so I’m hoping people will see that and wonder elsewhere. Lynn has a ridiculous BABIP this year of .174. So if you are not familiar BABIP is batting average on balls in play and the average per Fangraphs is around .300 so anything that is .280-.330 I don’t really look at because of variance. But if you get outside of those numbers then you are looking at someone who is really lucky or really un-lucky. .174 is stupid lucky. So Lynn has an xFIP of 4.07 which is telling a different story than his 1.37 ERA so this is putting him close to an ERA of 4.00 making him an “average” pitcher. Oakland has 80 team Abs vs. Lynn and they are hitting .288 but have a high 40% strikeout rate. Now don’t get scared by that K% because Khris Davis who is hitting .164 this year has 16 of those 32 Ks. Marcus Semien is only hitting .202 this year but he is 6 for 12 off Lynn (.500) with a HR. Matt Olson is 3 for 7, Mark Canha is 4 for 8 and Grossman is 3 for 10.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS vs. Ryan Castellani – On the surface Castellani has looked like a decent pitcher with a 3.77 ERA and 0.98 whip allowing a .196 average. However, his BABIP is a very low .189 and that is why his xFIP is up around 4.71. Castellani faced SEA and then TEX and both of those are really weak teams this year. He went a combined 8.2 innings with 10 Ks and allowed 1 ER. However, he went and faced HOU and gave up 8 hits and 5 ER in only 5.2 innings with 1 strikeout. First let’s look at the ARI team. They are night and day at Home vs. Away and vs. RHP or LHP. At home (where they are playing tonight) they have a wRC+ of 107.5 compared to 69 on the road, their team batting average jumps from .226 up to .270 and their team strikeout rate drops from 23.7% down to 16.1%. Now how are they vs. pitching hand splits? Castellani is a RHP and they have a wRC+ of 92.3 vs. 62.5 vs. LHP. Also you have some solid hitters in the lineup with Marte hitting .336 this year, Marte is hitting .320, Walker .286 and Peralta .301. 5 of the top 6 hitters also have a wRC+ vs. RHP over 100. They are CHEAP tonight coming in at only 3980 per player. So you can stack ARI with Bauer + another pitcher of your choice without any problems.
ST. LOUIS vs. Brad Keller – This is hard to write because I like in KC and I always avoid the KC games unless I’m stacking them. Now don’t get my wrong I do like Brad Keller and I think he is a fine pitcher but if you are running multiple lineups on this smaller slate then I don’t mind having a few Cardinal stacks. You can stack the top 5 graded guys at only 3420 average and that is Miami Marlins pricing. You have Goldschmidt who is hitting .340, Molina .314, Fowler .279 and almost all of the projected lineup has been putting up some decent DK points over the last week. If Keller does come in and have a good start he is only going to go 5.0-6.0 innings and then you have a mediocre bullpen that has a 4.48 xFIP. The play here would be going off Kellers xFIP of 4.31 and BABIP of .191 knowing that he is going to give up some runs and then they could hammer that bullpen.
HOUSTON vs. Patrick Sandoval – Houston is not the same team right now and Bregman is a big piece they are missing. However, this is still the Houston Astros playing at home and facing a LHP. Sandoval just faced SF and gave up 5 ER in only 4.0 innings with 1 K. His prior start he faced LAD and went 6.0 and gve up 4 ER. He has an ERA of 5.40 and his xFIP if 4.71 and allowing a .250 batting average this year. The top half of the Astros line is decent with Springer, Reddick, Gurriel, Correa and Altuve. Kyle Tucker is the wild card here at only 3800 he has a wRC+ of a whopping 149.9 vs. LHP and he has a 12 FPPG average over the last week with a massive ceiling of 43 DK points. The bottom projected 3 of Jones, Toro and Maldonado aren’t amazing. The highest ceiling stack here is Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker. I will note that Jose Altuve as a wRC+ of only 22.3 vs. LHP with a .197 wOBA so I don’t mind flexing around him if you choose too.
Thanks for reading,