Monday Night Showdown Breakdown!
This was a crazy odd week so don’t get frustrated and just put it behind you!
Optimal Choices: There is a really good article by FTN breaking down the optimal choices so I’m going to give you a quick recap here.
Optimal CAPTAIN choices in similar games:
QB – 23%
RB – 31%
WR – 38%
TE – 8%
K – 0%
DEF – 0%
CAPTAIN was from the favored team 77% of the time and 23% from the dog.
Team Stacking: There are 6 players in a showdown lineup on DK. The optimal breakdowns lean to a 3|3 split and that was correct 54% of the time. The 4|2 split was optimal 31% of the time the other splits were between 0%-8%. The first number includes the captain spot so you are looking at Captain + 2 players and 3 from the other team and that was optimal 54% of the time. The second highest coming in at 31% is Captain + 3 players from the same team and 2 from the other team.
DALVIN COOK – Don’t worry about the Bears defense as there is a clear advantage for the MIN running game here. You can see in the screen shot of our breakdown MIN holes the #1 O-Line vs. the #13 D-Line and second level yards MIN ranks #2 and Bears are 20th at allowing those yards and finally the 10+ yard runs MIN ranks #2 and Bears 18th vs. allowing runs of 10+ yards. Dalvin should break off his normal 100 yards and a TD. MIN is 3rd in rushing yards per game at 160.4.
ADAM THIELEN / JUSTIN JEFFERSON – If Dalvin runs this game then these guys won’t produce. So if you like Dalvin in the CAPT spot then I would shy away from using them or at most only use 1 of them. Week 8 and 9 Dalvin has put up 51.6 and 42.2 DKP and in those games Thielen only had 5.7 and 5.8 and Jefferson had 5.6 and 9.4. When Dalvin was out in Week 6 thielen had 14.1 and Jefferson 42.6. These players are definitely negatively correlated as there only 1 week which was Week 4 when they all hit value together. It is typically a big Cook game or decent Cook game with 1 WR smashing value.
ALLEN ROBINSON – MIN is giving up the 30th most passing yards at 287.9 and they rank 29th vs. covering the WR-1. A-Rob has put up 31, 26, 19, 10, 11, 21 and 15 DKP since Week 3.
DARNELL MOONEY – He has 11, 6 and 6 targets the last 3 games. He runs the left and right side 36% and 44% of the time and only 19% in the slot. The outside corners for MIN are allowing an 81% and higher catch rate. I like him as the #2 play behind Robinson. Bears should be playing from behind so leaning on the pass game for Chicago.
ANTHONY MILLER - He has 9, 11 and 5 targets the last 3 games and he runs 94% of his routes out of the slot. I would only use in GPP because Jeff Gladney the slot cover corner for MIN is one of the best corners they have. I mean he is not great by any means but the other two guys are giving up a 81% and higher catch rate and he is at 69%.
BEARS RUNNING BACKS – David Montgomery is OUT so that leaves Cordarrelle Patterson (5200) and Ryan Nall (6200). Both are cheap enough to mix then in but would not use both.