SPORTS BETTING PICKS FOR SATURDAY 3-16-2024
NBA PROPS & PRIZE PICKS FOR SATURDAY:
I wanted to breakdown some player prop research. Some of our users play on DK or FD and the others only have access to PrizePicks. Now a standard DK Prop is usually the same as the PrizePick line. I went from pulling PrizePicks lines to DK Prop lines because I can grab 400% more lines and DK has them up earlier in the day so we can get ahead on our research. If you find a line that you like and it's not on PrizePicks then it's usually on DK but juiced up.
Let's dive into some props and show you what I'm lookin for!
FRED VANVLEET PROPS
Do you see all the RED under the HIT%? That is a HOT player that is crushing his prop lines that you want to dig into. When I say "dig into" I mean check their MINUTES and make sure there isn't an unusual bump such as a player getting more minutes because someone was injured. In the Fred VanVleet example above we see 37, 39, 38, 34, 39 and 38 minutes and then compare that to his projected minutes of 38 and that is great. He is playing the same amount of minutes that he is projected for tonight so we can assume the usual projected output and dig into the matchup.
PRIZE PICKS: Looking for a Fred VanVleet 19.5 Points Prop
DRAFTKINGS: Looking for an ALT line points prop of 15+ / 18+ to put into a same game parlay. You could also consider a Points + Assists prop or just Assists as he has been very consistent. (I don't like the REB prop because in several games he is only over by 0.5 and has a game with only 1 board and that is too close for me with a large standard deviation.)
ZION WILLIAMSON PROPS
We see one RED category under HIT% and that is his points prop. What jumps out at me here is the field goal attempts at the very bottom > 14/21, 13/21, 10/14, 7/14 > he is taking double digit FG attempts almost every game and he has a high FG%.
PRIZE PICKS: Looking for a 22.5 points prop as he is averaging 29.3 over the last 3 games.
DRAFTKINGS: Love my ALT lines and this falls into the perfect category to get an 18+ points prop line -OR- if you want to swing for the fence you can take 25+ and get plus money.
DEANDRE AYTON PROPS
This guy is RED HOT fire right now since his return! Look at these stats > 21, 20, 19 and 25 field goal attempts with 31, 33, 22 and 30 points PLUS check those boards at 14, 19, 15 and 19!
PRIZE PICKS: Lookin for 19.5 points prop, don't mind a Points+Reb+Assists prop.
DRAFTKINGS: Love the flexibility here as you can get ALT Points of 15+ and 18+ on guys wtih a standard 19.5 line. You can even take 25+ and get HUGE PLUS MONEY or get wild and go 30+.
TREY MURPHY PROPS
This is a great example of something that I want to point out for everyone. Trey Murphy does not have a line up as of this morning but it's usually somewhere between 10.5 and 14.5. Now look at the game logs at the top and the scores and compare that to his POINT OUTPUT - Do you notice anything? Focus on the 3/5 game and 3/1 game. Do you see it now? Those were BLOWOUT GAMES and he exploded for 34 and 28 points. Pelicans are a (-13) point favorite today against a weak POR team so he could go nuts again. If you want to swing for the fence you could get 18+ / 20+ / 25+ and get big plus money!
The above plays were just dug up looking at the first 2 games and there are 9 on the slate. I could write pages and pages of examples and plays but this NBA sheet makes it soo much easier to dig up and find nuggets!
DON'T HAVE TIME TO DIG THROUGH GAME LOGS?
USE OUR PROPS PAGE!
If you don't have time to dig through game logs and research then this is a great tool to fig up a few nuggets without spending some extra time! Believe me I have 2 kids both in sports so we run around to practices and games non-stop and some days I just have to take the night off because I don't have the time!
We are going to focus on the GREEN plays on the left that I have highlighted that I was able to dig up really quick and I'll give you my TIPS and TAKE on those!
Kuminga Points - Now the return of Steph will definitely need to be monitored but he has 27, 22 & 26 over the last 3 games with a standard PRIZE PICK line of 18.5. That is something you would definitely want to look at. You can also see the 100% hit rate over the last 5 and 86% hit rate over the last 7 games.
LeBron James Assists - PrizePicks/DK line of 8.5 with a 5-1 "OVER" run is something we have to consider. I prefer targeting an ALT line on DK since he has several games just squeaking over.
Darius Garland 3PM - 2.5 feels like a solid line we can target and check 6-1 "OVER" in the last 7 games with 6 and 7 over the last 2 games.
DeAndre Ayton - Now here is a perfect example of something that I want to show you. We have (3) Ayton props (PRA / Points / Rebounds) and they all have an 80% hit rate over the last 5 so how do you decide? I look under the DIFFER column (see the red arrow on the top right) and we see a difference of 8.5, 6.1 and 2.9. Personally, I want to target the prop with the highest average difference so that would be the 8.5 and lead us to his PRA. I also don't mind his Points prop as 6.1 is a solid edge. Rebounds is more risky at a lower difference of 2.9.