NBA Sports Betting Report (February 11, 2020) from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I’m working on a new add on to the sports betting model on our NBA Cheatsheet. I’m making an ON/OFF database to sync in so if a big time player is OUT suddenly you can enter their name and change all the stats to match their on/off the court numbers. It is very time consuming but I’m going to get this done!
GAME BY GAME BREAKDOWN:
LA CLIPPERS (-1.5) OVER PHILLY
We have this game as 121-113 with LAC covering the small -1.5 spread. I’m going to agree with the sheet on this play and take the Clippers here. LAC is 7-3 in their L10 games while Philly has been struggling even though they have won 2 straight. Philly is a horrible 9-19 on the road but an amazing 24-2 at home. As for the total it opened at 225 and down to 224.5 and we have this game at 234 going over by 9 points. I do like the over here as both teams are playing at the same pace so we don’t have to worry about one team dragging the other down. The L3 average combined the teams are scoring 238 ppg and allowing 225 ppg so I think 224.5 is a good number.
NBA CheatSheet says: LAC -1.5 and over 224.5
KEY STATS THAT JUMP OUT: LAC is hitting 78% from the FT line the last 3 games while PHI is down to 66% for a 12% advantage to LAC. LAC has the edge on offensive efficiency at 1.19 vs. 1.07 for Philly.
CHICAGO (+3) vs. WASHINGTON
We have this game way to close to pick a side. We have WAS winning 114-112 and scoring 226 points total. With the Vegas spread opening at WAS -2.5 and moving to -3 and the total at 230 we are pretty in line with the Vegas numbers so I don’t think there is an edge here. My personal opinion says WAS -3 is the bet.
KEY STATS THAT JUMP OUT: WAS has a much better defensive efficiency over the L3 at allowing only a 1.09 vs. a whopping 1.21 for CHI. WAS also has 6.4 less turnovers per game over the L3 and 2.7 more blocks. CHI appears to be dominating the offensive boards with a couple more steals. Tight game but I like WAS here.
SPURS (+9) vs. THUNDER
I am off the sides for this game due to DeRozan being out. If I had more time this afternoon I’d dig into the on/off the court numbers for DeRozan and then the likely starting lineup but I don’t so I will pass. When there is a key injury in a game like this I don’t use the sheet (or at least until I have the on/off calculations built in!). So I’m watching the Vegas line and bet %. Right now we have OKC opened at -6.5 and moved out to -9. Total opened at 221.5 and moved down to 218.5 with 89% of the bets. I think the play here is on the under 218.5 if you want some action on this game. Both teams have a pace below 100. Spurs playing at 98.0 and Thunder playing at 97.6 and that results in less possessions and less points.
We like the UNDER 218.5 and don’t mine it parlayed with OKC moneyline.
KEY STATS THAT JUMP OUT: SAS are 8-19 on the road, 2-8 in their L10 games and lost 5 in a row. OKC is 17-11 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 games.
PORTLAND (+3) vs. PELICANS
What a game this should be with a 240 point Vegas total and a close -3 spread! We have this about as even as it gets with our models pegging this game at 119-118 Pelicans, 116-116, 118-118 and average out 118-118 for a 235-236 point total. I don’t think there is an edge here to be had. Pelicans are 10-16 at home and Portland is 10-18 on the road while both teams are 7-3 and 6-4 in their L10 games. Stats across the board are very close with the exception of POR having a 1.15 to 1.07 offensive efficiency advantage but then Pelicans take it back on the defensive said with a 1.06 vs. 1.11 advantage. NOR is taking down a ton more offensive boards per game but then they also have 6 more turnovers per game. 82% of the bets are on the under 240 total.
No opinion on this game and excited to see how it turns out!
BOSTON (+2) vs. HOUSTON
NBA cheat sheet has this as a BOS pick winning 114-109 with 223 total points scored. The stats say BOS has a 13% higher 3P% and an offensive efficiency advantage at 1.16 vs. 1.04 and a better defensive efficiency advantage allowing only a 1.08 vs. 1.13 number. BOS also has 9.6 more rebounds per game and 3.3 more offensive boards per game. BOS is also 9-1 in their L10 games and coming off of wins over OKC 112-111, ATL 112-107, ORL 116-100, ATL 123-115 and PHI 116-95. HOU is coming off two losses as UTAH squeaked by 114-113 and then PHO thumped Houston 127-91. However, HOU is also 18-8 at home. Sheet says take BOS on the money line. My opinion is that I can’t get HOU correct, when I’m on them they lose, when I’m against them they roll so I’m fading this game from a personal betting standpoint. For tracking I’m taking the sheet play of BOS +2.
RECAP OF OUR PLAYS I LIKE:
LAC -1.5
LAC over 224.5
WAS -3
OKC (money line) parlayed in with some other games you like.
REMEMBER! We still haven’t caught up with all the trades so some of the stats we are using are reflecting players that are not there anymore. Each team should have 3 new games under their belt before you really start using the stats!
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze