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NBA Betting Picks to consider (11/12)


NBA Sports Betting Picks to consider from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

Today starts a long run of vacation time for me from work so I get to dive into some NBA plays. Now for “Model Plays” we consider those with a difference of 6.5 points and anything less can be considered tier 2. These are just plays that I dug up and am pondering for this early Friday am. The “Alt Line” that is discussed was added a couple days ago and had a 5-1 day so I let it show up on the NBA Cheatsheet today (11/12) and will continue to track it. We have a great slate of games tonight!


DENVER (-5) > ATLANTA

DENVER/ATLANTA UNDER 215.5

ATL jumps out on our NBA CheatSheet as they are 0-8 ATS on the road and 3-9 on the season. I’m playing with this new “Alt Line” method and the tracking has been pretty solid and it puts this game at Denver -7.5 and current spread is -5. It’s not a huge gap but something to consider. Leaning on the under 215.5 in this spot as Denver should control the pace and they are a 9-2 “under” play and 5-1 “under” at home. For all the math nerds we have this game at a 2.08 projected game pace so we need to determine the possessions. ATL is playing between 101-103 while DEN is 96-99. That means if this game is pulled down to the DENVER pace and we give it 99 x 2.08 = 205.92 total points. If we pace it up and they run on ATL we are looking at 103 x 2.08 = 214.24 total points. The high side is right around the Vegas spot (just shy) and the projected average I’d put at 101 to be safe x 2.08 = 210 total points sliding to the “under”. The last time these two teams played was in March and Denver rolled up a 126-102 score putting it over but crushing the Hawks.


SPURS (+2.5 POINTS OR MONEYLINE)

Our Alt Line has this at Spurs -5 and they are grabbing +2.5 so that is enough to give this play consideration. Our “Cheat Line” model has this with Spurs 108-105 projected score. These two teams just played on November 3rd and Spurs lost a nail biter 109-108. DAL is 7-4 on the season but 2-3 on the road and 3-8 ATS. They are also 25th in PPG and 23rd in eFG%. Spurs are 7-4 ATS and 3-2 at home.


OKC THUNDER +4

Our models don’t like OKC for the record but OKC is on a 3 game win streak beating the Pelicans, Spurs and Lakers by 108-100, 99-94 and 107-104. OKC is also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. Why not?


PHOENIX SUNS (+1.5)

PHO/MEM OVER 222.5

Cheat Line model has this 113-109 Suns and Alt line has Suns -6. PHO is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games and 6-0 SU. PHO is 5th in our custom power model and MEM has slit down to 25th so leaning on the better team on the road. The total here is tricky and takes some digging to arrive at the over. We have this projected at 222 but with a range of 222-229 putting the over on my radar. League average pace last year (and most years) is around 102.7 so when both teams are over that number the game usually turns into a back and forth point fest. PHO is playing 104-105 and MEM 104-106. So for a low average 104 possessions x our projected pace of 2.13 = 221.5 total points. But Haze that is under the Vegas total of 222.5 so why the over? Quick calculation is if both teams are on a low of 104 that speeds up the game so 107-108 is where that projected number should fall and that gives us 107 x 2.13 = 227.9 points. Now things can always change, shots don’t fall, teams shoot poorly but overall this has been a good trend.


BROOKLYN (-8) > NOR

Oh my! #2 ranked team in our power rankings vs. 30th ranked team. NOR has lost 8 in a row and 1-9 last 10 games and 0-5 at home. BKN is 7-3 last 10 and 4-2 on the road. Alt Line has this game at -14.5 for BKN which is obserd for an NBA game but I’ll lay the -7.5, -8 or -8.5 (it keeps moving around). In a game like this I don’t like using the “Cheat Line” model but the “Efficiency Model” I think is a more effective grasp on this game and has it 112-98 BKN. BKN 3-0 ATS vs. NOR over last 3 meetings. In the last 5 games NOR has a high of 100 points putting up 100, 92, 85, 99 and 100.


CLEVELAND / DETROIT OVER 202

CLEVELAND -5

Holy crap Haze you have an over here? CLE is 8-4 “under” and DET is 6-4 “under” so what gives? Here me out. We project this game pace at 100-101 possessions with an efficiency of 2.04 putting us in the 204-206 range so BOOM over! LoL. CLE is playing 97-100 and DET is right around 101 on the dot so yes this game could slide under 202 but 202 is such a small number I have to go over here. When these two teams meet the OVER is 10-0. So we have determined the over is a consideration play but yes it’s close. CLE -5 is the other play I would consider. Alt Line has this at CLE -11 and we have projected scores of 106-100 and 108-97, thus both covering. CLE is a nice 9-3 ATS while DET is 4-6 ATS. CLE is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games and DET is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. CLE. Ok so maybe CLE -5 is the better play here. LoL.


GOLDEN STATE / CHICAGO OVER 221

For the record nothing here points to the over on my NBA cheatsheet and this is just a play that I personally like because it has the #1 and #4 teams in our power rankings AND they rank #1 and #13 in eFG% with 2nd and 5th in offensive efficiency. GSW have scored 123, 127, 120 and 126 over the last 4 games and CHI has put up 117, 118, and 105 in the last 3. GSW are playing at a fast 105.1-105.4 pace and CHI is 99.6-100.9. GSW at home, come on they have to run the floor here and pace this up right? Taking a shot on it!



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Thanks for reading & good luck!

Haze