bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for January 14th and Review of January 13th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly!
Let’s get started with the Review!
***Yesterday In Review:***
**Lineup-**
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
---|---|----|----|----|----|----
Doncic | 8500 | 43 | 5.1x | 10.6%| 29.3%| 18.7!!!
Harden | 12700 | 75.25 | 5.9x | 40.9%| 52.5%| 11.6!!
Gordon | 6500 | 43 | 6.6x | 27.7%| 23.6%| 4.1
Kuzma | 6900 | | x | 25.4%| 36.2%| 10.8!!!
Tristan | 6100 | | x | 9.1%| 27.7%| 18.6!!!!
Devin Harris | 3100 | 17.25 | 5.6x | 5%| 1.2%| 3.8
Khem Birch | 3000 | 13.25 | 4.4x | 2.4%| 9.8%| 7.4
Dorian Finney-Smith | 3200 | 23.25 | 7.3x | 2.2%| 1.8%| 0.4
**Total** |50000 | | x| | |
Entry Fees: 18.50
Winnings: 43.76
**Analysis-**
Like I talked about in my analysis article, yesterday had a few players whose absence would open up some pretty awesome low-priced options. I like to build a bunch of lineups before I settle on something so I knew that, if both DSJ and Bamba were ruled out, I could do a mega-stars/scrubs lineup when I got the 4 people I wanted: Doncic, Gordon, Kuzma and Tristan, and I would have exactly enough to fit Harden and 3 almost minimum priced punts. So I waited all day and, when both those players were ruled out, I pulled the trigger on this lineup. I talked about all of these people in the analysis article, and my reasoning for liking them was laid out fully there and didn’t change through the day, if you seek any additional information. This is a pretty quick review, but I think this was a really straightforward slate. Obviously, if there is something you have a question about feel free to ask me and I’d be more than happy to go into however much detail you would like in terms of why I picked someone.
***The Daily Slate:***
***Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day***
Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. [**If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here**](https://www.reddit.com/r/dfsports/comments/a9ckrh/bathrobedfs_good_chalkbad_chalk_and/)
The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
***Brow*** - I started writing this article at 930pm yesterday before my pain medicine knocked me out. Normally that doesn’t happen until way after midnight but I’m not complaining. That just means I sleep different hours. And, unfortunately, my daily article won’t come out until this morning instead of overnight. Still plenty of time before the 730pm lock at least! The reason the sleep swept over me is I had been sitting for a long time trying to decide if I was going to pick Brow, Harden, or Donovan for MSC pick. When I was falling asleep, I had been leaning towards Harden, but when I woke up the choice for **Brow (11600)** was clear to me.
First, we all know Brow has 100 DKP upside if everything goes right. Apart from a solo Harden, there’s not really anyone else who has shown the ceiling Brow has shown. This gives the edge in terms of general ceiling to Harden, but not by enough it settles anything. Second, we can look at game factors- the Grizzlies and Rockets are slowest and third slowest in the NBA, whereas the Pels and Clippers are two of the fastest paced teams. Huge advantage to Brow. Next, the O/U for Pels/Clippers is a staggering 239, by far the highest on the slate. It is a slate lowest 206 for the Rockets and Grizzlies. Huge advantage to Brow. The spread for the Pels game is also closer, 2.5 to 6.5, which is another slight advantage for Brow. The defense is also not a contest: the Grizzlies are one of the best defenses in the NBA and the Clippers are one of the worst. Additionally, the individual matchup Brow has against Gortat is going to be one of the best on the slate.
The last couple factors are less kind to Brow- usage, a metric Harden will destroy every other player in, and teammate health, since CP3 and Gordon are out and every Pelican is healthy, both are weighted heavily to Harden. When you put all that together, we have a neck-and-neck finish. Both have some factors in their favor overwhelmingly, and both have some factors that will increase their chances of success. So the last tie-breaking factor I want to consider is ownership- right now I am giving Brow the edge because I have to assume Harden will continue to sport his 40% ownership and Brow will go far underowned. Even against the Grizzlies on New Years Eve, when the matchup couldn’t have been worse for Harden (and the injuries were fresh), his ownership was incredible. If this turns out to not be the case and Brow is the chalk, I will go completely the opposite way and play Harden today.
**Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):**
****James Harden*** - When the Rockets and the Grizzlies played on Dec 31st, the Gordon injury was fresh, and the Grizzlies D was still incredibly slow and methodical. **Harden (12400)** didn’t care and still managed a 43 point triple double, good for 82 DKP. Well, CP3 and Gordon are still out and this time so is Kyle Anderson, one of Memphis’ best defenders, opening more possibilities for Harden. I spoke a lot about Harden in the MSC section. Harden and Brow are neck and neck for play of the day- for me, I am going to let ownership decide which one is going to be the pick for me.
****Horford*** - A few days ago when the Celtics played the Nets I said we needed to play Horford because he was a Center going against the Nets. Well, the Celtics blew that game out and **Horford (6200)** only played 24 minutes. He still managed over 34 DKP. This game has a similarly high O/U and a closer spread since this game is in Brooklyn. On top of all the huge advantages Horford already has as a C going against BK, Kyrie is also Questionable. If he misses, Horford sees a huge increase in usage and we can absolutely lock him in. But, regardless, even if Kyrie is playing and is not limited, Horford is easily one of the top plays on the day.
****Justin Holiday*** - While it is a rare day I play anyone from the Grizz, the injury to Kyle Anderson has opened up a bunch of minutes for cheap punt and relatively new acquisition **Justin Holiday (3400)** to get a bunch of minutes and take a bunch of shots, something he showed his willingness to do with the Bulls. There’s not much analysis needed here- it’s not the best spot for anyone, but you can’t really deny the appeal of someone with that price who really loves putting some shots up.
****Donovan/Blake*** - I will start off by saying that, once again, the Jazz are going to be **massively** undermanned today. All 3 PGs and Sefolosha will still be out. This, once again, opens the door for **Donovan (9200)** to have a Harden-like usage day, not only shooting the ball 25 times, but also ball handling (which increases the possibility of getting a double double). Until the other guys come back (or his price gets to 10k) Donovan is an absolute lock every day, no exceptions. On the other side, the Jazz are a great defensive team, though they can be exploited by good PFs. **Blake (9400)** showed this a couple weeks back when he put up 59.5 DKP against this Jazz team. With Gobert focused on Drummond, Blake will, once again, be in the best position to soak up most of the Pistons usage and work his way up to the 60 DKP mark. I will advise that this game has the 2nd lowest total of the day (as well as the possibility of a Utah blowout) so be cautious. I will still be on both of these guys regardless.
****Nurkic*** - In a game where I would expect Lillard to command a great deal of the ownership, it is once again **Nurkic (8600)** who finds himself in the best spot. This game has a great O/U and a close spread, and we should definitely look here toward the beginning when filling out our lineups. I don’t really want to go into this that far, because I only need to say one thing about this: Remember that game? The one insane, record-breaking game Nurkic had? You know the one- where he put up a 20/20 5x5. The first time anyone ever done that in NBA history? Yeah that was against the Kings. And they haven’t gotten any better. They are going to do what they can to try to stop him and, much like a few weeks ago, they won’t be able to. Don’t overthink this spot. He’s shown the ceiling he has in this exact matchup. The Kings have shown they can’t deal with it. And people have shown they still don’t realize how good Nurkic has been, since his ownership manages to stay way too low, much like it will be tonight.
****Buddy Hield*** - with Bogdon/Shumpert and Bagley/Bjelica eating into each other’s minutes and usage, the one dude on the wing that has yet to feel the effects of a healthy Kings squad is **Hield (6600)**. Not only is he someone that can easily get between 40-50 DKP any night, and was recently priced at 7400, but he also gets the dream matchup here against C.J. McCollum who he consistently beat the last time these two teams matched up. Much like Nurkic, this isn’t an environment that has changed for this player since the last time these teams played. We shouldn’t be afraid to apply what we just learned and take the advantages where they show themselves. For this game, that is all Hield and Nurkic.
****Clippers*** - as always seems to be the case, we will have a harder time picking which of the Clippers we want to play. The only Clipper in the top 50 in usage is LouWill who can go nuts any given day, but is limited by his bench role and lack of major minutes. The same also applies to Montrezl- in a great spot tonight, but expensive for a bench role without big guaranteed minutes. The only other Clippers who warrant discussion are two players who are always great Cash plays, but rarely show the ceiling you want to win tournaments- Tobias Harris and Gallo. No one will be able to deny that, in an incredibly fast, close, high scoring game that we need to get some LA representation in our lineups, the question is how. I would say that, as a GPP player, I will look to LouWill and Montrezl first, as high ceiling and low owned players. If I was interested in cash, I would lock both Harris and Gallo in. This isn’t to say Harris and a Gallo can’t provide ceiling today, but they are generally safer floor players who work within their normal ranges and very rarely break out with a slate winning score.
**Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):**
****Hornets vs Spurs*** - a game with a fine over under but a worrying spread of SA -8.5, this is one of those games that would have a huge appeal if I played cash. As it is, with how fair the prices are for everyone (and how poorly Kemba has been playing) there are a ton of people with safer floors, but not enough of a ceiling in this matchup. Especially considering how frequently the Spurs are involved in blowouts.
**Situations to monitor:**
****RHJ*** - RHJ is on the cusp of returning, and with Dudley now joining Crabbe and LeVert on the sidelines, the Nets need him. If he plays, I would assume he would be on a minutes limit. This would take away all my desire to play any Nets. If RHJ misses, **Kurucs (3800)** and **Davis (3700)** become two of my favorite punts on the day.
****Kyrie*** - Kyrie is questionable tonight. If he plays, he is too expensive for me at 9000 when I could get Donovan for similar pricing. If he is out, **Rozier (3700)** becomes the low price play of the day, without question. No one would be anywhere near him. **Brown (4300)** would also see a huge boost tonight.
Alright everyone! Good morning again. Hope the general lateness of this wasn’t a hassle for many of you! This should be a really fun slate with a TON of really attractive plays for us. Don’t be afraid to play around with lineups- it may take longer than usual to settle on something you really like.