NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Yesterday in our chat group Luka Doncic was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ and we discussed to start building lines with Jalen Brunson who would likely be named the starter after Luka was officially ‘out’. He was near min price and went for 49.3 DK points which is around 15x value. Those pivots are crucial because most people won’t check their lines and that is value you can’t miss if you want to win a GPP or crush a cash game! Long story short just pay attention!
GAME NOTES FOR THIS SLATE:
10 games on tap tonight and 3 of those games we have rated as the pace down games and they are also some of the lowest in terms of fantasy points allowed. See the DVP screen shot at the lower portion of the article but those games are NO/IND, ATL/NY and MIA/OKC. I’m not saying don’t play anyone from those games but surely don’t stack them or use 3 players from the same team.
We have GSW/SAC as the highest paced game and so far this morning they have the highest projected team totals. (Half of the lines are not up yet.) DET/MIL is the second fastest paced game we have and there is no total on it at this time.
PLAYERS THAT WE LIKE:
ALEC BURKS (5400) “QUESTIONABLE” – He was upgraded to Q so watch his status. He has put up 29.5, 38 and 36 DKPs over his last 3 contests and that most recent 29.5 DKP game was with only 20 minutes on the floor. His average FPPM is 1.06 and his last 5 game he has been up 18% producing at 1.25 and he is projected at 28 minutes. 28 minutes x 1.25 = 35 DKPs and almost 7x value. That give you some room if he plays less minutes or starts missing shots.
TYLER HERRO (6400) – He is someone that popped in our NBA cheatsheet as a Tier 1 play today. His last 3 games he has put up 18, 46 and 40 DKPs. The most recent game he played 29 minutes and it was a low scoring game of 93-83. OKC is allowing a massive amount of fantasy points to his position. Someone to consider in your builds.
STEPH CURRY (9300) – So he drops 75.75 DKPs last night and his price drops 100. I’m sure the prices were likely posted before that game but still that is kind of funny. He shot 18 for 31 and went 18 of 19 from the FT line and put up 62 real life points. Steph has 76, 45, 49 and 56 DKPs over his last 4 so he is sitting at a 5x floor and showed some upside. They have a team implied total off 115.5 and we have this projected as the fastest pace game on the slate so he is obviously in play priced at less than $10k.
FRED VANVLEET (7700) – Just like Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown either Fred VanVleet or Kyle Lowry is going to have a solid game and gobble up the fantasy points. I prefer VanVleet here just because he is slightly cheaper and producing at a higher level. When we look at FPPM we see Lowry is a 1.01 player and producing at a 1.05 level over the last 5 games. VanVleet is a 0.95 player and producing at a solid 1.12 (+17%) over the last 5 games. VanVleet is coming off a 50.5 DKP game and 47.25 the game prior. Anyone priced under 8K that is pushing 50 DKP upside and actually doing it is on my radar.
GIANNIS ANTE (10800) – If you have room to pay up you can’t argue with Giannis. The last two games he has put up 65 DKPs in ONLY 28 MINUTES! That is amazing! In the prior game he put up 68.75 DKPs in 38 minutes. Great for cash games and has the upside for GPPs. The closer the game stays the more minutes he will play but he wrecks havic whenever he is on the floor. His FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Min) is near 1.80 which is one of the top in the league.
BOBBY PORTIS (4900) – If you think this game is going to “blow out” and Giannis does not get the minutes then Bobby Portis is your pivot. We need around 25-30 DKPs for 5x-6x value. In blowout games he is getting around 25 minutes and close games he is in that 17-18 range. In the last game they won 126-96 and he played 25 minutes and put up 35 DKPs which is a nice 7x value. I would not play Giannis and Portis in the same lineup.
JAYSON TATUM (8600) – I like to find guys in the 7000-8500 range that can put up 50 DKPs and climb a little higher. Those guys are great for GPPs and cash games. Jayson Tatum has put up 59.5, 42.5, 29 and 53 DKPs over his last 4 contests. The lowest of those games game in a blowout game they won 126-107 over Memphis. He is taking around 20 shots a game and grabbing 8 boards.
JAYLEN BROWN (8300) – I’m starting my lines with using either Tatum or Brown in most of my lines. When Tatum doesn’t go off then it’s usually Brown. He has put up 36, 48 and 58 DKPs over the last 3 games. I would typically not play both of them in the same lineup. For example, when Tatum had his low 29 DKP game that is when Brown had his 57.8 DKP game. One of them is going to gobble up all the fantasy points!
TOBIAS HARRIS (7600) – His price only increased 300 after dropping 57.75 DKPs against this same team on 01/02. DVP spot is phenomenal as they are allowing a 1.77 FPPM to his primary position. He has also put up 58, 39, 54 and 42 DKPs over the last 4 contest.
POTENTIAL PUNT/GPP DART:
Here I want to focus on one guy that is a great GPP dart that is low owned, usually projected under 5x value and someone that could produce at a higher level than their projection. We can call this guy the “GPP Dart of the Day!”.
CHRIS BOUCHER (5100) – Chris Boucher is my play for the day. BOS is giving up a ton of points to his position so he is in a prime DVP spot. BOS is allowing 55.5 DKPs to the C position but if you break it down as we do on our NBA Cheatsheet and you look at players who are PF/C eligible they allow 74.8 DKPs per game. Either way 25% of the total points they are allowing is to the C position. He is projected at only 19.5 DKPs and 3.8x value on most sites. His last 4 games he has put up 38, 25, 1 and 53 DKPs. His FPPM is 1.03 but over the last 5 games he is producing at a 1.37 level which is a +34%.
Our DVP breakdown will show you the projected pace of the game and we also added an indicator for "pace up" and "pace down" games. You can see total fantasy points allowed, fantasy points allowed to the position, % of total points and then the fantasy points for the players that are playing multiple positions. Not seen in this screen shot we also have the FG% allowed, real life points allowed and rebounds allowed to the position incase you want to be really sneaky.
TIERS CONTEST BREAKDOWN:
For the TIERS contest on DK we have added in ownership % for the players to help you make better decisions. You can also see the DKPs over the last 10 games, usage rates, FPPM comparisons for season over last 5 games, projection minutes and our own GPP algo model to help you pick the best players.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!