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NBA Breakdown for January 5th!


NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock.

VALUE PLAYERS:

GEORGUI DIENG (4000) – Projected for a safe 22 minute tonight and when I say “safe” he is averaging 22.3 over his last 3 games so I don’t see a big change in his minutes. He has put up 20, 30, 31 and 19 DKP over his last 4 contest so he is a decent punt option that is putting up a 5x floor and 7x is only 28 DKPs and he has eclipsed that in 2 of his last 3 games.


JAMYCHAL GREEN (3800) – Projected for 22 minutes and could get a few more as Denver should blow this game open. He has 28 and 18 DKPs over his last 2 and priced near the bottom. His FPPM (fantasy point per minute) is a 0.93 but has recently been playing at 1.17 which is a +24% increase.


TIMOTHE LUWAWU-CAB (3700) – A solid boom or bust option for tonight. KD is not playing tonight so he may get a little more usage. He hasn’t exactly been tearing things up but 2 of his last 4 games he has been over 6x value and hit a high of 37 DKPs which is 10x upside.


SOLID STUD PLAYERS:

The first thing I do when I open the NBA cheatsheet is filter out all the teams and go team by team and look at the stats for each team. This usually points me in the direction of a few studs to lock in or build around. Here is what I’m looking at for tonight.


NIKOLA JOKIC (10,800) – He has put up 53, 49, 62 and 62.5 DKPs over his last 4 giving you a solid floor. He is playing at a 1.67 FPPM level which is a +13% increase. DVP spot is solid and we have Denver projected to easily win this game and they have a huge edge on the boards. MIN is allowing a 62% FG rate to the position and that is the highest on the slate with one of the top C’s in the league. They are also allowing 56.2 DKPs to the position.


JAMAL MURRAY (7600) – If you have read anything of mine you know I like the 7k-8k range players with 50 DKP upside. Jamal Murray has put up 51.8 and 48 DKP over his last two contest. He is in a prime DVP spot as MIN also gives up a ton of points to guards as well as centers (as stated above). 25% of the total points they are giving up is to the PG position. DEN has a team total of 118 points tonight and on a slate with several slow paced games I want to get at least 1-2 DEN players in my lineup.


PAUL GEORGE (8800) – I wasn’t even looking at Paul George until I got to my game by game review. He has 55.8, 55.0 and 52 DKP over his last 3 and Kawhi played in all of those so I’m not worried about his losing shots or usage with Kawhi on the floor. PG is playing at a +21% increase in his FPPM which takes him up to 1.41 (Kawhi is 1.36 over his last 5 games). He is industry projected at around 5.0x value tonight which is fair but if you take his FPPM over the last 5 at 1.41 and multiply that by his projected minutes tonight of 37 that gives you slightly over 52 DKPs which is 5.92x value. So he has 5x as a floor and some wiggle room to get to 6x that is not out of this world.


MIKE CONLEY (6900) – Utah had a massive line shift in their favor today and they went from opening as a +3 dog to now a -4.5 point favorite. Conley is playing 32 minutes per game and his FPPM production is up from 0.94 to 1.19 for a +25% increase. Over his last 4 games he has 22.5, 50.5, 33 and 51.5 DKPs. He has the floor of 3x and can ruin a good line but he has 50 DKP upside. Donovan Mitchell is the other PG but in the last 5 games his high is 41.0 DKPs and he is priced at 500 higher so like Conley with the higher ceiling. Conley also has a higher FPPM than Mitchell which is 1.19 vs. 1.03.


C.J. MCCOLLUM (8400) – This POR/CHI game should have the most points scored on the slate as we have this game projected at an insane pace. Most people will go to Damian Lillard which is fine but his is only averaging 46 DKPs a game and has 2 of his last 3 games lower than 4.5x his current salary. McCollum is cheaper by a whopping 1,400 on DK and has been averaging 50 DKPs per game. 2 of CJ’s last 5 games have been over 6x value and he is coming off a 51.3 DKP game and his other was 66.3. McCollum is cheaper, has the higher ceiling and higher average per game and is projected to be lower owned.


ZACH LAVINE (8000) – If you put 3 guys from the same team on a roster then it has to be POR or CHI. LaVine will crush his value if this game can stay somewhat close tonight. He is coming off a 59.5 DKP game. LaVine has a FPPM jump from 1.19 up to 1.31 which is a +12% increase in production.


NBA TIERS BREAKDOWN from the NBA CheatSheet:


NBA DVP Look from the NBA CheatSheet:



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Thanks for reading & good luck!

Haze