bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for January 15th and Review of January 14th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter **@bathrobeDFS.** Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
***Yesterday In Review:***
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
Rozier | 3700 | 19.25 | 5.2x | 70.6%| 82.9%| 12.3
Donovan | 9200 | 40.75 | 4.4x | 6.3%| 12.8%| 6.5
Jaylen Brown | 4300 | 36.5 | 8.5x | 48%| 49.1%| 1.1
Hayward | 5300 | 11.25 | 2.1x | 54.9%| 23.9%| **31!!!!**
Nurkic | 8600 | 28.75 | 3.3x | 7.7%| 11.8%| 4.1
Harden | 12400 | 77.75 | 6.3x | 44.4%| 54.6%| 10.2
Treveon Graham | 3400 | 6.5 | 1.9x | .9%| .6%| .3
Nene | 3100 | 5.75 | 1.9x | 9.5%| 12.7%| 3.2
**Total** |50000 | 226.5 | x| | |
Entry Fees: 35.75
Winnings: oh fuck naw
Terry Rozier. Al Horford. Marcus Morris. Gordon Hayward. Spencer Dinwiddie. Ed Davis. Both Grahams. Marc Gasol. Justin Holiday. Isaiah Hartenstein. Nene Hilario. James Ennis. Marquese Chriss. Nick Batum. Willy Hernangomez. Malik Monk. Demar DeRozan. Bryn Forbes. Pau Gasol. Jakob Poeltl. Dante Cunningham. Quincy Pondexter. Andre Drummond. Blake Griffin. Reggie Bullock. Bruce Brown. Donovan Mitchell. Joe Ingles. Derrick Favors. Royce O’Neale. Jae Crowder. Jusuf Nurkic. CJ McCollum. Zach Collins. Seth Curry. Willie Cauley-Stein. Bogdan Bogdanovich. Buddy Hield. Nemanja Bjelica. Elfrid Payton. E’Twaun Moore. Nikola Mirotic. Lou Williams. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
That’s a list of names of people that underperformed yesterday, either by a little or by an incredible amount. Some of these people were massively owned. Some were 2% owned punts. But this is the list. I went through every game and checked every DK score and compared it to their prices. If you played any of them (or, much more likely, several of them), you got it in a bad way today. You might think that you needed to play Harden AND Brow to win today, but if you start at the top of the 425k DK major GPP, you won’t hit a lineup with both Harden and Brow until you get to 10th. Only 2 more people in the top 20 had both, as well. It seems you had to pick either Harden OR Brow and then have a bunch of Russell, Brown, Tatum, Jarrett Allen, Gobert, Kurucs, and LMA scattered in your remaining spots. This is going to go down as one of the most frustrating slates of the year (and in recent memory). I honestly can’t recall so many people talked up around the industry that just flamed out in a horrible fashion. I wanted to go the “either Harden or Brow” route since I didn’t want to get more then 2 people in the 3000s that weren’t Rozier. So I chose Harden with Capela being out and the 80% usage rate he would have. I then went with Donovan who would have no choice to control almost all of the game. He started out poorly, but almost hit value at the end. I also locked in Nurkic who was someone, not only who showed personal success against the Kings, but who was just a great center playing against the Kings, a position I would always rank very highly. I then wanted to get Rozier, Brown, and Hayward in there. I figured, against BK, there would be enough DKP to go around with Kyrie out. It turns out most of it went to Brown and Tatum, leaving almost everyone else on the roster out in the cold. I also wanted to get Nene, who has the chance of a solid 1 PPM production and would be getting 18-20 minutes. He shat the bed (so did almost everyone). That left me 3400 and the F spot. I had Holiday locked in there until Memphis announced that Holiday would not, in fact, be starting as most places had been calling since Anderson’s injury. I had to choose if I wanted to take the risk, pivot to another risky Grizzly, or pivot to a Net who would be starting, could get 30 minutes, and might fall into some production. He had been shooting the ball 6-8 times recently (brought in as someone who would shoot 3s) and, if some of those fell, he could provide nice value, as well as as run-back against the 3 Celtics I played.
Do yourself a favor and go back and read that list of names again. That is only a 6 game slate worth of names. That’s only 12 teams. 45 names, by my count. And I’m sure I missed some. That’s just staggering. Don’t get down on yourself. Most people had a horrifying day yesterday. All we can do is try to learn the lessons we can, then wipe it from our memories and start fresh today. No team that played yesterday is playing today, so we can treat this as a bit of a palate cleanser.
***The Daily Slate:***
***Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day***
Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. [**If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here**](https://www.reddit.com/r/dfsports/comments/a9ckrh/bathrobedfs_good_chalkbad_chalk_and/)
The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
***Nikola Jokic*** - There are some great folks tonight in some great spots. For a 6 game slate, the number of high priced superstars is pretty incredible: Westbrook, Giannis, Embiid, Jokic, KAT, Curry, Durant, Simmons, PG13 are all over 9k (with the 10k line coming after KAT). As always, this is a section that has less to do with pricing, though, and more to do with who has the best chance of having a ceiling game. Westbrook and PG13 against Atlanta is mouthwatering, but risky. Embiid/Simmons and KAT could go at each other all night, or could force each other into foul trouble. Giannis is a freak and two Justise Winslows wouldn’t be able to stop him. Curry and Durant are both coming off great games. But when looking through all the spots today, one of the things that stuck out the most to me was everything Jokic has had going for him lately. First, I think he has either the best or 2nd best chance for the triple double bonus today. That’s just extra points he will get that only Russ has a decent chance of seeing. Second, this game has a significant O/U of 228. What is better, though, is a spread of GS -1. It’s not often we get a Warriors game that has the potential to get into a shootout, but when it does I want to get in on that. Third, Denver is in one of the biggest pace up spots of the day, as the 27th ranked team taking on the 10th ranked GS. Fourth, GS has been below average against C this season (but especially the last month). Not that anyone can stop Jokic, anyway. He has been out of this world this year. As I said about him in regards to the Clippers matchup a few days ago- if they put someone on him that stops him from getting his shot, he draws the defenders in and gets 10 assists by the middle of the 2nd quarter. If they try to move out and cover everyone, he annihilates whoever is on him and he winds up putting up 40 real points. Even with the exceptional defense of Dray, and the smart coaching of Kerr, I don’t expect them to be able to deal with the sheer number of options Jokic can create on the floor. Especially, again, when the Warriors have been below league average against Centers as it is. Jokic’s usage is also, by far, the highest on the Nuggets. Even with Millsap back, his usage hasn’t really changed at all. With Harris Questionable, I have to assume that, once again, he will be severely limited when he returns which shouldn’t change Jokic’s usage at all. He missed a ton of time, was getting back into regular minutes, then injured his hamstring enough to miss 4 games. To be honest, with how much work Harris would have to put in on the defensive end (ditto Craig and Millsap), even if they say he is starting and playing his normal run of minutes, my interest for Jokic wouldn’t wane in this matchup. Vegas expects this game to finish with a 115-113 score. You think Jokic isn’t going to have a share in a shit load of those 113??
**Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):**
****Richaun Holmes*** - With **Devin Booker (8400)** coming back from back spasms tonight (yeesh), I am hesitant to pay for a player with a back issue who will be guarded by Vic Oladipo. His usage, though, does detract from everyone else, who are priced at completely fair prices. The one person who is getting a lot of run, though, and the ownership and price is starting to catch up to, is **Richaun Holmes (4000)**. He has been regularly getting into the 30DKP range. He has been providing a lot of scoring and defense off the bench, and they have been rewarding him with extra run. He has been using that extra run to reward us. In a game in which the Suns will need his defense, I expect Holmes to get extra minutes (as well as any blowout run, should it come to that).
****Jimmy Butler*** - I have gone on the record saying that I think revenge narratives are completely overblown for the most part. A lot of times, the players don’t actually hold any grudges, and it will do nothing to change how they perform that night. **Jimmy Butler (7600)**, though, is not the kind of player that processes emotion like that. First, the Wolves have been one of the weakest teams against SF all season (something they were hoping Covington would change). This puts Butler in a great spot. This game has the 2nd highest O/U on the slate, 231, with a close enough spread of PHI -6. This also puts Butler in a great spot. Butler proved he has a deep burning hatred in his heart for the Timberwolves, and will take the 3rd string team and beat the starters by himself. That puts Butler in a great spot. Butler will have to be dragged off the court by the coach to stop him from shooting the ball 30 times tomorrow. If Brett Brown is smart, he’ll let him. A motivated Jimmy Butler is a scary thing, if you remember his days in Chicago, and you and I both know that, as far as revenge narratives go, this one is not a media creation. It’s a Jimmy Butler creation. If you don’t wanna go there, or Butler winds up being chalk, this is a great environment for production so you should make sure to get some of this game (on both sides). After SF, MIN is weakest against PG, putting **Ben Simmons (9400)** in a great, although incredibly expensive, spot. KAT is a defender that can be exploited, and **Embiid (10500)** is one of the best in the business. There is a log jam at C though, and it will be really, really hard to play him.
****KAT*** - Don’t get me wrong, Embiid is a good defender. He’s just not an elite defender. And **KAT (10200)** has shown that, the way he’s been playing lately, it wouldn’t really matter if he was. There *are* 2 really good defenders on the Sixers, though- Ben Simmons, the 2nd ranked PG in DRPM, who will be guarding **Jeff Teague (6100)**, and Jimmy Butler, the 5th ranked SG, who will be defending **Andrew Wiggins (6500)**. This means that, once again, the lion’s share of production in what is going to be a high scoring, fast paced, close game, will fall to KAT. The Sixers are 7th in pace and the Wolves are 12th. The O/U is 231 and the spread is only PHI -6. The one caveat I need to make is that Derrick Rose is Questionable. If he is out, it’s a huge boost to KAT. If he is in, it slightly hurts KAT’s production (from the zero-sum perspective). As I said in the Jimmy Butler section, this is one of the best games on the slate in terms of possible production. It’s going to be hard not to get a piece of this, and, with the other pieces facing superior defensive options, I will be looking to KAT. On one C sites, I would still pick Jokic first. But on DK, If enough value opens up, I will try to get Jokic and KAT in my lineup tonight. I should also point out that **Saric (4600)** was completely blindsided by the trade, by an organization that had sat him down and promised to keep him around for years to come. While I don’t know if the Wolves are going to give him enough minutes to matter, if you think they let him get that frustration out, feel free to punt with Saric tonight. I don’t think i’ll be able to afford that for someone getting 15-20 minutes, but pay attention to the news. You never know if they let him start!
****Dennis Schroder*** - Picking **Schroder (5400)** today gives me access to the highest O/U game on the slate, at 233, without spending the crazy money needed to get to **Russ (11600)** or **PG13 (9200)**. Don’t get me wrong, Russ is in a great spot- he’s going against the worst defender in the entire NBA, in the most pace up spot possible, against a front court that won’t be able to stop him. Similarly, PG13, who was just priced over 10k, has fallen back down to 9200 after 3 subpar performances (for him). Like Russ, there is no one that can stop him on this team and he should be able to have his way with the entirety of the Hawks defense. Schroder, however, might be the sneakier pick for a number of reasons. First, as I’m sure you all know, Schroder, like Jimmy Butler, is the kind of player that holds grudges and he has one against his old team, the Hawks. Second, even with his recent slump, Schroder is still top 50 in the NBA in usage. Third, regardless of whether or not this game blows out (which should be a real concern), Schroder should be safe to get 30ish minutes. Fourth, Schroder is one of those streaky players (like Aaron Gordon) who you want to get when he’s getting hot. We may be seeing that, with a solid 8-17 shooting performance in the 2nd game against the Spurs on his way to 37.25 DKP.
****Alex Len*** - As much as anyone who writes/talks about DFS hates Alex Len days, here we are. Dedmon is doubtful and is not expected to play. This means **Alex Len (4100)** will get the start and starter’s minutes at way, way too cheap a price. Yes, we know the Thunder are a great defensive team and Adams is a good defender. But on a slate which begs for as much value as possible, it will be nearly impossible to pass up Len today in a slam dunk value spot. If you want to get really sneaky, or the ownership on Len gets out of control, I strongly, strongly suggest a pivot down to **Omari Spellman (3800)** who should be backing Len up today. He is about as risky as it gets, but he did get 30 minutes in their last game, and put up 31 DKP in that time.
****Steph Curry*** - I don’t normally like recommending players from the GoldenState TooManyCooks, given how crazy the pricing is, and how split the usage is, but today **Steph Curry (9900)** is in the best spot, by far. When fully healthy, the major weakness the Nuggets team has is against PGs. Jokic, Millsap, Craig, and Harris are all above average defenders, leaving Jamal Murray as the weak link. And Curry has been incredibly hot as of late. Like, he has one blow out game where he got 46.75 DKP in 27 minutes and that’s the lowest DKP he’s had since Xmas. That includes 74.5 DKP last game against the Mavs, where he put up 48 real points. Jokic is a fantastic play, as I said before, in part because it’s rare that a GS game has a near 230 total and a spread of -1. This is going to be a great game to jump all over, and Curry is not priced high enough for what he should be able to do to Jamal Murray. I will start my lineups with Jokic being run back by Curry tonight.
****Bulls/Lakers*** - Again, as has been the case lately, every single person for this game is underpriced for their ceiling, meaning this is a great, great place to come for GPP plays. The low 214 total should also keep people away, but the spread is close enough, and the prices are low enough, that this game is ripe for the taking. Right now the most expensive play in this entire game is **Kuzma (7300)** who has, again, shown that he can get you 5x that just in pure points. Next come the duo of **Dunn (6900)** and **LaVine (6800)** who are going to be seeing the really great D of Ball and Hart, but are still underpriced for the % of the team’s production they are responsible for. Even in a tough defensive matchup, both are capable of giving you a 50 DKP day. **Ball (6700)** and **Ingram (6600)** are both in decent spots, but with their recent production, I consider them more cash plays- guys that will probably get you right around that 5x mark with an occasional ceiling game. The two sneaky plays I will have a hard time playing are **McGee (5300)** and **Carter (5300)**. The Bulls are, by far, weakest against C. McGee should be able to throw his offensive style all over if he wants (though lately, he hasn’t really been given the chance). Not only have the Lakers been bad against C, they have been, by far, the worst in the NBA against Centers in the past month. This means that if Carter can push for 30 minutes tonight, he should be able to push past 30 DKP. The last time Carter got 30 minutes against a team that was shitty against Centers was December 28th when he put up 44.75 DKP against the Wizards in 33 minutes.
**Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):**
****The Miami Humidity/Milwaukee Bucks*** - With as deep as the Heat rotation has been lately, these players are really all wet today. This game does not have an O/U yet, even though no one of any significance is Questionable. I expect it to be pretty low though, compared to the other games on this slate pushing the 230 mark. I will make this one note- over the last month, the Bucks are worst-in-the-NBA against PFs. So, while I would love this to point me to someone, who on the Heat is playing more than 20 minutes at that position this game?? That’s right. No one. If you want to take a bet that **Justise (6500)** can beat Bledsoe’s defense at that price, go ahead, but I won’t be anywhere on this team (barring injury news). Similarly, there are no prices on the Bucks that really stand out, given the fact everyone is finally healthy. No one would argue against playing **Giannis (11200)** who is a freak and could have the biggest game on the slate, but the odds of that happening are less for him than for other people. And 11200 is a lot to ask without being the easy best play that day.
**Situations to monitor:**
****Pacers Injuries*** - As of right now, Collison, Turner, and Cory Joseph are Questionable for this game. In a game where I do not like a lot of pricing, I really hope the news comes out some combo of these players will be in. I would love to attack the Suns at the Center position, and, while I love to play **Sabonis (7900)**, that price is getting pretty high up there given the other slate pricing. **Turner (6500)** practiced this weekend, hoping to return from a nerve issue (and, again, as someone with severe nerve issues.. It’s not fun or easy to deal with. It’s honestly hard to even think about anything else when that kind of issue happens- think tooth pain, that’s a nerve issue). If Turner is back, and not restricted in any way (unlikely), I will have him 100%. He was priced 8000 before his injury and, in this matchup, could easily perform as if he should be again. Ditto **Collison (5000)** who is generally an up and down player depending on the matchup. Well, this is a great matchup for Collison, and a great price for him to get 6-7x. If he is out, **Cory Joseph (3300)** becomes the play of the day. Unless Joseph is ALSO out, since he is also questionable, at which point **Aaron Holiday (3100)** becomes a stone lock (and you should give serious, serious consideration to a seriously slumping **Oladipo (7800)** though I will have a hard time going there until he shows some signs of life).
Alright, today is another day. Remember- everyone was on those plays last night. It wasn’t just a couple of people that underperformed, it was at least 45. If you assume 10 players per team, that is more than 1/3 of all players and I didn’t even include a HUGE amount of punts and people that only played 3-5 minutes. Let’s hope a slate like that never happens again, and we all start fresh tonight! Let’s get it, folks!