NBA Plays & Stats for November 11th from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
With NBA season now in full swing we launched our NBA Algo Best Bets and advised people to play #1 and #2 rated games! We started off 3-2 (just missing a 4-1 opening night) then we followed that up with a 6-0 Saturday and 4-0 Sunday for an amazing 13-2 run for the 2019/2020 NBA Season! Our top GPP Algo plays have also been off to a red hot start!
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PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR YOUR LINEUPS:
I’m not going to focus on the cheap value plays that are popping up all over as everyone is well aware of them. I’m going to focus on some GPP players in good spots with high upside.
BRANDON INGRAM (7800) – Across 8 games this year he is averaging a nice 47.7 DK points which is just over 6x his current salary. He has also exceeded 55 DK points in 3 of those 8 games with a high of 63.25 DK points. He has a nice game total of 243 and Houston is allowing 9 more points to his position than league average for a 9.7% improved spot. Not to mention he dropped 60+ last time he faced them. Should be in line for a solid 5x floor and good shot at 6x value.
LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE (6300) – What jumps out at me here is that MEM is giving up 23.5% of their total points to the C position. That is 56.6 points per game. Game total is also at 224 and he is coming off a 57 DK point outing. He has stuck around that 30ish point mark with a couple duds but that is why we are only using him in GPP and not cash. Low floor but in a spot for big upside. When he had the 57 point game vs. OKC he took 23 shots and put up 39 actual points. He could be in line for another big game coming off an almost 9x performance!
KRISTAPS PORZINGIS (7200) – I love this “sweet spot pricing” of guys in the 6500-8000 range that can hit 50 points. Game total of 219 and BOS is a tough matchup. They are giving up 24.1% of their total fantasy points to his primary position and that is 52.7 fantasy points. If you don’t normally follow along anything over 21-22% is a monstrous number for percentage of points allowed. 2 of his last 6 games he has been over 50 DK points giving you a solid ceiling.
RUDY GOBERT (7600) – GSW should have Draymond back tonight but they are still giving up a ton of points to the C position. 24.6% of their total points allowed have come from the C and that is 59.7 DK points! Projected to play 32-34 minutes tonight we are looking at Gobert in GPPs. I also don’t mind him in cash with a floor around 4.5x to 5x I think he can reach up a little higher for GPPs. We have only seen a 48 point game from once this year.
DERRICK ROSE (5800) – Questionable for tonight. His value returned in his last 6 games has been 7.1, 5.4, 3.4, 9.5, 5.8 and 7.6. That is what you want in a GPP. You want that BIG CEILING. He is playing anywhere from 21-28 minutes per game but taking double digit shot attempts. At 5800 for 5x value we need 29 points. I think 29 is his floor if he is playing tonight and he has 40-46 points as a recent ceiling. MIN is giving up 52.2 points to his position and that is 22.5% of the total points they are allowing. Whoever is on the perimeter tonight give them some consideration!
D’ANGELO RUSSELL (8300) – GPP only play here. UTA is a tough matchup and they play at a slow pace. The game total is only 213 and their team implied total is 102. UTA only allows 41.6 points to the PG position. However, we want low owned guys that can explode. I’m waiting for ownership projections but with the matchup I think his ownership will be down. He is coming off 48, 83 and 49 DK point games!
RUSSELL WESTBROOK (8800) – His last 3 games he only has 36, 40 and 25 DK points and those accounted for 4.3x and lower values while Harden was going bonkers. His price tag has dropped from 9800 to 9100 to 9400 and now breaking the 9k mark at 8800! I’m hoping that his recent performance woes people will gravitate toward Harden at 11,500. He did have a string of 5 games where he put up 62, 65, 50, 57 and 57 DK points and those were good for 5.4x value up to 7.1x value. With a game total of 243 points and a team total of 124 points he has plenty of wiggle room tonight. NOR is allowing 57.7 points to the PG position which is 23.7% of their total points allowed. They are only allowing 47.5 points to the SG position but still Harden is un-guardable.
CORRELATED GPP PLAYS:
I love to find guys that are correlated in regards to their performance on the court. An example is Harden vs. Westbrook. They are inversely related more than 80% of the time. So let’s look at recent games. On 11/09 Harden goes for 75 points and Westbrook a stinker at only 36, 11/06 Harden goes for 74.5 and Westbrook a stinker at 40. Earlier in the year when Westbrook went off for 65 points Harden only had 40.5. A couple of games they both his and exceeded value but rarely do both of them smash. Why is this important? If you are running 20 GPP lineups in a 20 max contents put Harden locked in WITHOUT Westbrook in 10 and then flip it and run 10 with Westbrook locked in and no Harden. I see so many people putting both players in a lineup. If you are looking at our “Player Tracker” sheet you can see the relationships between players by scrolling back over recent performance.
Danuel House (5300) & P.J. Tucker (5200) are also inversely related. If you are reading this in the article form I’ll include a screen shot, if you are reading this in a forum the screen shot won’t be below but you can reference the article for the screen shot. I just want to hit on the last 3 games: House 33 points vs. Tucker 20 points, Tucker 46 points vs. House 28.5 points, House 36 points vs. Tucker 10.5 points. So if you want to go a step further with those 20 GPP lineups you can do 5 with Harden + Tucker, 5 with Harden + House, 5 with Westbrook + Tucker and 5 with Westbrook + House. Now when the Houston game goes off you have 5 lineups with 2 monster guys and you might get lucky and they all hit value. Just my thoughts.
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Haze