NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
NEWS TO MONITOR – MIGHT OPEN UP VALUE PLAYS:
COLLIN SEXTON (Q) – With Sexton off the court Darius Garland has around a +4% usage bump and Andre Drummond has a massive 35% usage rate with no Sexton. If Sexton is not they are not that appealing but if he is out then I may grab a piece or two.
JAYLEN BROWN (Q) – Jayson Tatum is running at 35% with 1.43 FPPM with Brown off the court. Tatum is taking around 20 shots per game and with no Brown that could push 30. Coming off 57.75 DKPs going 11 for 26 Tatum is a great play but might be a lock with no Jaylen Brown. Kemba Walker would also become viable playing his 30 minutes and putting up 6x value.
PLAYERS WE LIKE TONIGHT:
KENRICH WILLIAMS – Likely one of the top value plays on the slate tonight priced at 3500 and projected for 30 minutes. It’s hard not to hit value near min price and playing 30+ minutes. So I want to check his FPPM level and it’s right at 0.91. The cut off for me is 0.89 if they are below that number then I am not too interested. He is coming off 30.50 DKPs playing only 23 minutes, the game prior he played only 20 minutes and put up 15.5 DKPs which is still near 5x his low salary. If you give him 30 minutes x 0.91 = 27+ DKPs and that would be 7.7x value. Make sure to check the sheet and the FPPM Last 5 x Projection Minutes column, those guys have been fucking on fire!
HAMIDOU DIALLO – He is a little expensive to be in the “value vault” but sliding him in here. He is coming off 31.75 DKPs where he played 33 minutes with all the injuries. That was a 7.1x value his 4500 salary and he took a price hit to 5200 which is still pushing 6x+. He has been averaging 24 minutes per game and projected to play 36 tonight as one of the only PGs on the team. He is a 1.15 FPPM player and say he doesn’t play 36 minutes and let’s project him at 30 minutes x 1.15 = 34.5 DKPs which is still pushing 7x value.
THEO MALEDON – Same thing here as listed above but I prefer Diallo over Maledon due to the FPPM production. Maledon is producing at 0.85 on the year and 0.83 over the last 5 games putting him below my 0.89 thresh hold. Now don’t get my wrong I will play him in some lineups but he just won’t be a lock for me. He is 5000 and put up 24+ DKPs in 3 of the last 4 games and a high of 36.75. OKC players will have a ton of value tonight so pick the right ones!
KYRIE IRVING – Criminal to price the PG for the Nets at barely over 9k when they are scoring 130+ points per game. Kyrie is solid for cash and has shown some GPP upside with his 56.75 DKPs last game. 5x is a floor, love for cash, don’t mind for GPP.
RUSSELL WESTBROOK – While Kyrie is a solid play and putting up around 1.20 FPPM I prefer Westbrook for GPP due to his 1.31 FPPM and last 5 he is at a whopping 1.58. Westbrook is now back to full minutes playing 33 and 35 the last two games and responded by putting up 50 and 73.5 DKPs. Only 9000? He is a 10K player so grab him while he is cheap and make some money off of the mis-price!
FRED VAN VLEET – Great matchup for Lowry and VanVleet facing the Nets who are giving up 120+ points per game! VanVleet is a 1.14 FPPM player but over the last 5 he is playing at a 1.36 number which is huge! He is sub 8K on DK coming in at 7900 so we only need 40 DKPs to his 5x value and 6x is even at 47 points. So how has he done recently? He is coming off 77.75 DKPs and then a dud of 19.5 and then a string of 50, 47 and 46.5 DKPs. Love Love Love some Vleet tonight!
KEVIN DURANT – Kevin Durant should be a 10K player and anytime he is priced under 10K I have to give him a look. He is a 1.33 FPPM player with 1.26 over the last 5 and locked into 35+ minutes on a team putting up 130+ PPG and allowing 120+ PPG. He has a 4x floor but gives you upside in the mid 70’s.
KAWHI LEONARD – Kawhi is just clearly mis-priced at 8800. He was 9200 two games ago and a couple games before that he was 10K. In 4 of his last 7 games he has 53.5-59.25 DKPs giving you huge upside and then he has the other 3 games of 4x value. Upside too great not to like for GPP. If Kawhi doesn’t smash then it’s Paul George (8700) as one of them is typically always pushing 60 DKPs.
JIMMY BUTLER – Another extremely low price at only 8300 is Jimmy Buckets. He 41.5 DKPs for 5x and 48-49 for 6x value. He has put up 44.5, 50, 51 and 59 over the last 4 games and locked into 35 minutes. Anyone that has 50 DKP upside on a consistent basis and priced in the low 8K range is on my radar. Love for cash and GPP.
JERAMI GRANT – He was a mid 8K player earlier in the year dropping 55+ DKP games. Now his price has slid down to 7K on DK and he still has 50 DKP upside. Love him for GPPs. His usage rate is normally in the mid 20’s and he is a focal point of the offense. If we look back at his two dud games he played GSW where they lost in almost 30 and he only played 28 minutes so I can understand that. The prior game they played the Lakers and they are one of the top defenses in the NBA so I understand the struggle. He is coming off 44.5 DKPs against a touch Utah team which is pushing 7x value.
THAD YOUNG – Do you read what I post? PLAY THIS GUY! We have been riding him since he was 4500. He has put up 38, 39, 41 and 44 DKPs. That is pushing 7x value on his “current salary as of today” in 4 straight games. No Otto Porter tonight so plug him in again!
DOMANTAS SABONIS – Sliding him into the C range since we have some many forwards today. He is only 8600 and has put up 59 and 60.75 DKPs in his last two. He is a 1.32 FPPM player and playing at a 1.42 level. Love the price tag on him tonight to continue smashing!
NIKOLA VUCEVIC – Draftkings refuses to price him up with Aaron Gordon out. He went from 8700 down to 8200 and now 8500. Love him tonight! He is coming off 51 DKPs with no Gordon and played 37 minutes. He touched the ball 92 times without Gordon on the court! In the last 10 games he has hit a high of 69.5 DKPs giving you a great ceiling! With Aaron Gordon off the court his FPPM goes up to near 1.53 and usage over 30%.
MASON PLUMLEE – Sitting at 5500 on DK he has put up 41, 12, 36 and 34 DKPs over his last 4 games. The dud game he only played 16 minutes because they were getting blown out. He should get his 25-28 minutes tonight and he is playing at a solid 1.16 FPPM giving you 30+ DKPs or 6x value.
NAZ REID – He should go tonight but he is “GTD” as of right now. He is 5400 and has put up 30+ DKP in 3 of the last 4. His low game he only played 13 minutes. What I look for is that if he got the minutes and if he produced with the minutes. If he only played 13 minutes and that is his dud game then that is fine. But if he played 30 minutes and put up 16 DKPs then I’m worried. Looking at the last 7 games if he played at least 24 minutes he put up 30+ DKPs in 5 of 6 and all of the last 5 games. Like him for a value play tonight.
RECAP from custom model projections last night - these continue to be FIRE!
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Thanks for reading & good luck!