NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
I have so many guys I like on this slate I’m going to hit on a few in each category to get you started!
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
PLAYERS THAT WE LIKE ON THE SLATE TONIGHT!
Luka Doncic – Yes Kyrie at only 9000 is screaming at me but I want to see what happens with Harden and Durant on the floor with him. Before the last game out where they got shut down Luka has put up a usage rate of 41.6, 35.9, 36.3, 36.1 and 36. He does it all for his team and he is always in the mix and his ceiling is unreal at this point. His last 7 games he has put up 36 (dud), 87.5, 59, 78, 58, 77 and 72 DKPs and he is priced at 10,700 on DK. Yes Harden his 61.5 and 79.5 playing 41 and 40 minutes in the same price range but now he also has Kyrie who is going to take shots from him. I prefer Luka here for the pay up stud.
Kyle Lowry – Lowry has really popped putting up over 45 DKPs in 2 of his last 3 games. He is always a lock for around 35+ minutes and double digit shots. He is pushing 6x consistently and gives you a solid 5x floor and priced at only 7600 tonight. (TIP: Lowry & Boucher have been popping at the same time so stack them together!) VanVleet has fell from 1.07 down to 0.88 fantasy points per minute and Lowry has jumped from 1.35 up to 1.45 so ride the Lowry train over the VanVleet caboose!
Ja Morant – Had to add a second middle guy because I love some Ja Morant in GPPs. In December he put up 66 and 44 DKPs and his price range was 8400-8700 and his usage at the time was over 30. Now he came back and played 31 minutes putting up only 26.5 DKPs but did take 14 shots on 1/16 and then on 1/18 he played 34 minutes and put up 41.75 DKPs and is still priced down at 7300. Like him for GPPs.
Shake Milton – GPP dart here as he is only projected for 4.6x value. What jumps out at me is the production when he is on the floor. He is a 0.93 fantasy point per minute player but over his last 5 has been at the 1.22 level which is a +29% increase! He has to compete with Seth Curry, Maxey, Simmons, Harris, Joel Embiid so that is why we are only looking at GPP but he is still projected for 25-30 minutes. Most sites take 25 minutes x 0.93 FPPM and give him around 25 points at 5600 and he shows as “under value”. I look at 30 minutes (giving him a small bump since he is crushing right now) x his last 5 fppm 1.22 and that puts up at 35-38 DKPs crushing value on his 5600 salary. Yes the minutes and production are risky but come on he put up 51 DKPs in 27 minutes on January 14th and then 40.25 DKPs last time on and he didn’t start in either of those two games. Joel Embiid is almost 10K and putting up 40-45 DKPs per game or you can take shot on Shake Milton at half the price putting you in that range.
Chris Boucher – How can this be anyone else? His price is climbing and will continue to climb. He started off around 5k and now up to 7300 on DK. In his last 6 games he has no less than 37.5 DKPs and has eclipsed the 40 DKP mark 4 times. He went for 46.5 DKPs last time out and that was roughly 6.5x value. He is racking up steals, blocks and boards and gives you a solid floor.
Kelly Oubre Jr. – He is only 5500 on DK and 5x value is 27.5 DKPs. He has put up 37, 28 and 31 in his last 5. His last game was 6.9x value his salary and his price only went up 100 dollars. Someone giving you a solid floor with some upside to fill in your lineups and he is SF/PF eligible on DK. I like his consistent 30 minutes per game and playing on a team that always has high team totals and high Vegas spreads. This game has the projected second fastest pace tonight.
Xavier Tillman – With the injuries Tillman has seen a bump in his playing time from 18 minutes per game up to 28-30 and even got the start last game. He is priced at a low 3500 on DK so we need 21 DKPs for 6x value. He is coming off 23 in his last game and 31 the game prior. Should be a great lock in value tonight. In those two games he is 12 for 21 from the field with 10 boards and 5 steals. (He is also the top GPP Algo play on our NBA CheatSheet!)
Nikola Vucevic – Yes there are other guys that you might consider a stud. But do you really want to pay for Joel Embiid at 9600 went 3 of his last 4 games have been under 42 DKPs? Not me! Sabonis is 9800 and he is a stud but he is a constant 5x returning and I want more upside in my lineup. Sabonis has 50, 53, 46 and 46 DKPs in his last 4 games. Now let’s talk Vucevic who is only 8600 and severely mis-priced. He was 9500 just 4 days ago. Vucevic has put up 48, 69.5, 32, 53 and 58 DKPs in his last 5. He is playing at a fantasy point per min level of 1.60 over his last 5 games and 1.55 on the year.
Clint Capela – Bam is another guy who was going to slide into this category. Bam just killed DET putting up 53.25 and 50.75 DKPs facing them on 1/16 and 1/18. Now Capela gets a turn! DET is allowing over 57 DKPs to the opposing C position and over 20 boards per game. Capela is coming off two games where he played 37 and 39 minutes and put up 54.25 DKPs in both games taking 16 shots, grabbing 15 boards and 3.5 blocks per game with 23 and 25 real life points. Capela is ONLY 7600 on DK!
DeAndre Jordan – He is only 5500 on DK and projected to have a playing time bump from his normal 20-25 minutes per game to the low 30’s. How can you not hit value with boards and assist when you have Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and James Harden on your team? Without Kyrie last time out he played 38 minutes and put up 36.5 DKP points for going 6 for 6 from the field with 12 boards, 3 assist and a steal with 2 blocks. Foul trouble and minutes are always a concern but if you need a punt option they should score 120+ PPG from here on out!
Our DVP breakdown will show you the projected pace of the game and we also added an indicator for "pace up" and "pace down" games. You can see total fantasy points allowed, fantasy points allowed to the position, % of total points and then the fantasy points for the players that are playing multiple positions. Not seen in this screen shot we also have the FG% allowed, real life points allowed and rebounds allowed to the position incase you want to be really sneaky.
TIERS CONTEST BREAKDOWN:
For the TIERS contest on DK we have added in ownership % for the players to help you make better decisions. You can also see the DKPs over the last 10 games, usage rates, FPPM comparisons for season over last 5 games, projection minutes and our own GPP algo model to help you pick the best players.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!