NBA Plays & Stats for (March 3rd, 2020) from CheatSheetPros!
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves (Vegas Total 247 points!)
We have to get some pieces of this game with a massive total of 247 which is the highest total on the slate. So I’m going to look at some key players that we could build around. MIN is allowing 260.8 DKP per game over the last two weeks and that is massive as the average is only 229.6. They are allowing the following:
68 DKP to the C position – 28.5% position advantage.
57.1 DKP to the PF position – 23.1% position advantage.
50.8 DKP to the PG position – 9.5% position advantage.
DERRICK FAVORS– The last two games he has played 24 and 27 minutes and put up 34.25 and 35 DKP and priced at only 5200 today on DK. That is giving up 7x-ish returns in his last two and then he is in a smash spot tonight. I don’t like the 20ish minutes but he is producing at a high level and has a great DVP matchup.
ZION WILLIAMSON– Primarily playing the PF spot he has the 2nd highest spot tonight from a DVP perspective. He is only 7700 on DK so we need 38.5 DKP to his value. He has given us 41, 33, 42 and 42 DKP so he is giving you a safe floor for cash games. I don’t like the ceiling as they are -11.5 point favorites and he is sitting in that 5x-6x range and hasn’t really exploded but worth a shot for a solid building block.
LONZO BALL – I slightly prefer Lonzo > Jrue tonight since he is 7300 compared to 7900 but I think you are fine with either player. Lonzo is getting hot coming off 50.75 and 42 DKP games compared to Jrue and his 28.25 and 39.5 DKP game. Lonzo has a better DVP spot of 1.05 vs. 0.96 for Jrue.
MIN facing the Pelicans are also in a pretty decent spot as the Pels are allowing a solid 234.5 DKP per game which is 4th highest on the slate. They breakdown like this:
50 DKP to the PG position – 7.8% position advantage
51 DKP to the SG position – 15.6% position advantage
46.5 DKP to the C position – negative 12.1% position advantage
D’ANGELO RUSSELL – He is priced up at 9000 so I prefer him more for cash than GPP. He is playing 31+ minutes per game and putting up a high of 58 and low of 40.75. So this is giving him a range of outcomes from 4.5x value up to 6x value. I think in this spot tonight he should be able to easily hit 5x and push 6x. If you think this game is going to become a blowout since they are 11.5 point dogs and that Russell will get some rest then you can look at Jordan McLaughlin at 3800.
MALIK BEASLEY – He is only 6000 on DK and playing 30+ minutes per game and taking a ton of shots. His last 7 game he has taken 15, 18, 14, 20, 13, 18 and 25 FG attempts and put up a range of DK points from 22.75 up to 41.5. He has a lower floor but pushing 7x upside so a little better for GPP with a little more risk. I will note that his 41 and 41.5 DKP games were both in D’Angelo Russell on the court. So if you were going to look that I just saved you some time!
WASHINGTON / SACRAMENTO – Vegas Total of 232.5
I’m less excited about this game as SAC is allowing the lowest amount of DKPs on the slate as a team (212.6). They are also really strong vs. SF and PF allowing the least amount of points. SAC is a little better facing WAS who is allowing 231.7 DKP per game as a team which is a good for 5th highest on the slate. PG/SG/SF are the better spot to target as PF/C are a little tougher.
There aren’t a ton of great sneaky options in this game. Bradley Beal 10400 is priced high due to his recent games of 61.5, 70.75, 50.75, 61.5 and 70 DKPs and has a DVP spot of 0.86 which is a little bit of a red flag. However, he is getting it done so not too worried about that stats. Alex Len 4300 is coming in as one of the higher value players of the came with a DVP spot of 1.01 and his last 3 games he has 34.25, 22.75 and 27.75 DKP making it easy for him to hit value on his lower 4300 salary.
OTHER PLAYERS TO LOOK AT:
Willy Hernangomez (3800) – Coming off a 37.25 DKP game playing only 20 minutes he is a GPP only play. He is dirt cheap and his massive upside if he can get the minutes. Right now he is rotating in and playing 14-20 minutes per game. Big risk, Big Reward.
TREY LYLES (5200) – Looks like Aldridge is doubtful to play again tonight meaning Lyles should get another 30+ minutes of action in a decent DVP spot at 1.10. Lyles has been on FIRE and it’s just ridiculous putting up 35 DKP last time out and then 44.75 the game before – that is around 7x and 8x value for the last two games and in another good spot tonight.
STEVEN ADAMS (6200) – GPP only play. Low floor but a massive ceiling if he gets hot. I think he is worthwhile to take a shot on tonight vs. LAC. LAC is really tough vs. PG and SG and average vs. the C so we may see some extra minutes and/or shots tonight from Adams. It feels weird with Adams coming off a shitty 22.75 and 24.75 DKP game which is 3x and 4x value but I’m focused on the run prior to those two games where he put up 41.75, 41.5 and 56.75 DKP and that is massive value on his salary. One of those crap games was vs. MIL where they got blown out 133-86 and he only played 17 minutes so I can look past that one.
MARQUESE CHRISS (5800) – Projected to play another 25 minutes tonight in a good spot he is worth consideration if you need a pivot. He has a range in his last 8 games of 20.25 DKP to a high of 45.25 DKP with the majority of those falling around 33-36 DKP which is 5.5-6x value. DVP spot of 1.25 tonight and a decent pivot if you need salary relief.
RICKY RUBIO (7200) – The thing to know is that he is only going to play 27-29 minutes per game while they give some of the younger guys some run. Coming off his last game it was 29 minutes and only 19.25 DKP and the team only scored 99 points. Prior to that game he was on fire putting up 48.5, 45.5, 62 and 48 DKP points. With a ceiling like that in a decent DVP spot he is in the player pool. Now with this last game where he was held to 29 minutes ELIE OKOBO (3300) got 20 minutes of action and put up a whopping 30.25 DKP. So if the coach is going to limit Rubio’s minutes to get some young guys some run then Okobo could be a sneaky play as he is only projected at 3x but coming off a 10x value game. Keep an eye on this. So if you run a lineup with Rubio run another lineup with Okobo and hope he gets hot. Okobo was 4 for 8, 5/6 from the FT line, 7 boards and 5 assists. Wow!
I wish I could write all day and keep digging into games and players and reading coaching notes but I have to go get some work done. So good luck everyone and we will chat soon!
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze